Luv Lf Trend Continues Down

[FlyBoeingJets]

"monthly traffic at SWA grew 500 million seat miles.
monthly traffic at Airtran grew 271 million seat miles.
monthly traffic at AWA grew 246 million seat miles.
AAI/AWA are SWA's biggest LCC competitors. Add the two together, and it looks like SWA is the big loser head to head on putting butts in the seat.
From a stock picking perspective the percentages matter. From a real perspective SWA is still growing more. They may be growing more but the growth is not bearing fruit so far."




Lowecur,

YGTBSM! SWA is the big loser in head to head competition? You can tell that by 1 or 2% points? That is 1 to 3 passengers per flight.

Growth not bearing fruit? How much money did Airtran and AWA make last quarter?

"Most of the legacy airlines should do quite well in the next few quarters as evidenced by rather large gains in their stock prices the last 30 days. Wall St is beginning to see value in many of the Legacy's share prices that have been pounded down in the last few years as their expenses have been trimmed down to fighting weight."

Put you money where your mouth is. Go buy some DAL, UAL and NWA stock with your analysis of their success the next couple of quarters. If you're right you will make a killing. Add it to your shares of ERJ.

 

[soulcracker]

I'm going to have to give you a lesson in CASM/RASM there Jack. Yes the CASM will rise slightly as more and more 190s come on line, but be aware that the 190 should average out to around 7.5 cents. Their real advantage will be the reduction of Jetblue's average stage length from around 1100 miles to 900 miles in the next 4 or 5 years. The shorter routes are RASM friendly, and will kick the margins back up to double digits.

How DARE you talk trash about Southwest!!! You should be ashamed to EVER second guess their success!!! Im out.


Holla.

 

[Dizel8]

"BTW, Jetblue has started to suffer under the back end loaded leases on the Arbi. JetBlue now has 1.9B in debt. Almost as much as SWA's 2.0B."

That certainly wouldn't have anything to do with purchasing more airbi, 190's, new facilities etc., etc?

Of course long term debt is increasing, since the company is growing, it is not how much you owe, but whether or not you can pay. So far, jetblue can!

SWA is obviously better of financially, lot more years to accumulate money and not building infrastructure like crazy at present. jetblue can only hope, that it too will grow and prosper like the leader, SWA.

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,

YGTBSM! SWA is the big loser in head to head competition? You can tell that by 1 or 2% points? That is 1 to 3 passengers per flight. FBJ, SWA has taken the approach they will not leave money on the table by offering fewer fare sales in the last month and particularly this summer. They will forego the higher load factors in favor of more revenue for now. Dumb?, time will tell, as SWA history is low fares to attract customers and it will be interesting to see if they will be able to manage their yields under those conditions and not upset loyal customers.

Growth not bearing fruit? How much money did Airtran and AWA make last quarter? It's not about making money in this environment, it's about growing marketshare and not losing a boatload.

Put you money where your mouth is. I invested in AWA at $4.19, but sold at $5.75. Go buy some DAL, UAL and NWA stock with your analysis of their success the next couple of quarters. Those are three stocks I wouldn't touch with my big toe. The key is to value invest in companies with a viable future. UAL shares will be declared worthless when they emerge, and it's possible DL and NWA may have to go that route. Not smart investing. If I had more nerve AMR/CAL would have been a good bet in hindsight, but they are both up too high for my taste. Don't forget, Wall St. is looking ahead 6 months. If you're right you will make a killing. Add it to your shares of ERJ.

.....

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I think JetBlue is here to stay and will do well. But I do think the lower margins are a sign of the future. The debt, if managed well, is normal. JetBlue has a good credit rating and rates are low. Debt makes sense and is necessary to take advantage of opportunities right now.

I just like to throw around some facts when Lowecur conveniently forgets to present a balanced viewpoint. But I am partial to SWA.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

I think JetBlue is here to stay and will do well.

Careful there... substitute any of the below in that sentence and see if you think those words were ever uttered...
TWA
Pan Am
People Express
Eastern
Western
Braniff
etc, etc, etc

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Excellent point.

One way to work an airline career is to plan on jumping from your current airline before it falls apart. Those that left UAL to start JetBlue are doing well.

But everything is relative. JetBlue should be good for a few years. Growth cycle and all. Hickups are possible with such aggressive growth but JetBlue appears to be managed well.

Short term looks solid. Meduim term looks positive. Long term is unknown for any airline. The long haul will be decided by managers that are likely not in place yet in a marketplace unimagined.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Lowecur is right! At least one legacy is seeing substantial traffic increases.



Delta Says May Traffic Up 9.4 Percent
Friday June 3, 3:02 pm ET Delta Air Lines Posts 9.4 Percent Jump in May Traffic As Capacity, Occupancy Grow



ATLANTA (AP) -- Delta Air Lines Inc. said Friday that its systemwide traffic grew 9.4 percent last month, helped by a surge in international flights and higher occupancy during the period.

The airline flew 10.53 billion revenue passenger miles -- one passenger flown one mile -- in May, up from 9.63 billion the year before. Domestic traffic rose 7.4 percent, while international traffic swelled 16.3 percent, the company said.

Total systemwide capacity, or how many seat miles were available for purchase, increased 5.7 percent to 13.8 billion available seat miles. Meanwhile, load factor, or the percentage of seats filled with passengers, advanced to 76.3 percent from 73.8 percent, Delta said. The airline boarded 10.53 billion passengers in May, up 4.1 percent from a year ago. Year to date, passenger traffic is up 10.3 percent to 48.72 billion revenue passenger miles as capacity expanded 5.6 percent to 64.79 billion available seat miles. Plane occupancy was 75.2 percent, compared with 72 percent a year ago. Year to date,the airline boarded 50.06 billion passengers, up 5.7 percent from a year ago.