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Looming Pilot Shortage
- Thread starter pilotyip
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Several of the posters hit it right on the head.
It's not about a shortage of pilots. Never was, and never will be. Its about a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots who are willing to do the job at the wages offered.
Good pilots are usually smart people. They see the cost/reward raitio, and with the downward trend in pay & benefits, see that there are MANY other avenues which provide a path to better QOL and pay in the long run. These days people are starting to realize that most airlines are a dead end, you'll never get anywhere without owning your own business or being your own boss.
The smart pilots have either already left, running their business on the side, are in school in their part time or are independently wealthy. As the work rules and pay degrade, these pilots simply chuck it and quit.
No reasonable individual is going to pay 50k+ or spend 10 years being shot at for a CHANCE of 100k a year 20 years down the road, living in Turdville, being on the road 20 days a month with no reasonable retirement. As the last of the reasonable agreements fade away, more people will see the "old man behind the curtain".
In my opinion, AW&ST is mostly a management magazine. All you have to do is take a look at "Who's Who" section in the front. Someone probably tipped them off that "gee, we're having a hard time convincing people to waste their life on 19K a year" and so they wrote a sympathetic article that will probably get photocopied and put into every sales package at the big schools.
Nu
It's not about a shortage of pilots. Never was, and never will be. Its about a shortage of QUALIFIED pilots who are willing to do the job at the wages offered.
Good pilots are usually smart people. They see the cost/reward raitio, and with the downward trend in pay & benefits, see that there are MANY other avenues which provide a path to better QOL and pay in the long run. These days people are starting to realize that most airlines are a dead end, you'll never get anywhere without owning your own business or being your own boss.
The smart pilots have either already left, running their business on the side, are in school in their part time or are independently wealthy. As the work rules and pay degrade, these pilots simply chuck it and quit.
No reasonable individual is going to pay 50k+ or spend 10 years being shot at for a CHANCE of 100k a year 20 years down the road, living in Turdville, being on the road 20 days a month with no reasonable retirement. As the last of the reasonable agreements fade away, more people will see the "old man behind the curtain".
In my opinion, AW&ST is mostly a management magazine. All you have to do is take a look at "Who's Who" section in the front. Someone probably tipped them off that "gee, we're having a hard time convincing people to waste their life on 19K a year" and so they wrote a sympathetic article that will probably get photocopied and put into every sales package at the big schools.
Nu
Last edited:
YourPilotFriend
YourPilotFriend
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Without brand scope, even if their is a pilot shortage, it will mean nothing. With the new regional growth contracts, it's only a matter of time before the regionals have a greater number of pilots than the majors. This means that there will be a huge shortage of pilots at the regional level and a massive oversupply at the majors. There will be a pilot shortage but there will never be one at the majors. Who the fuc|< cares about a pilot shortage at the regionals. What is a regional jet anyway? The E195 holds more than some DC-9s and is known as a regional jet.G-force said:
YourPilotFriend
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You hit the nail right on the head there. I had the recent opportunity to talk to a school recruiter at a aviation school, and he was absolutely clueless as to what was going on in the industry. This guy talked as though the airlines were still in the goldendays of aviation. One of the kids there was absolutely convinced he was going to fly a 747 for a major airline right out of college. So I told the recruiter what the industry was really like, his response was "heh we can't tell potential students that". The only people who will tell you this industry is great, are the ones trying to sell you something.NuGuy said:
FN FAL
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Rogue5
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Pilot Shortfall
Pilot Training School Enrollment Rises, but Study Suggests More Needed to Meet Future Demand
AW&ST
05/22/2006, page 51
James Ott, Cincinnati
Filling cockpit seats, particularly at regional airlines, is likely to be more difficult than expected when as many as 8,000 pilots are currently furloughed at U.S. airlines and a future shortage is probable, according to a report by a career counseling service.
Some key training executives agree with conclusions of the preliminary report by Fltops.com. It suggests a looming shortfall of candidates in the U.S. to meet rising demand for pilots that the FAA forecasts through 2017. Fewer military-trained crewmen entering the ranks is the largest contributing factor to the predicted failure to meet hiring goals. Other factors at play in this tough post- Sept. 11 business environment, such as high entry costs, could pose insurmountable obstacles to those who are considering piloting as a career.
Among educators, these concerns have resurrected the idea for a government-sponsored national aviation academy to take up the slack in training future pilots.
The Fltops.com study holds that 120,000 new airline pilots will be needed in the U.S. through 2017, based on the FAA's fleet forecast. Growth alone will account for 67,000 new positions. Retirements under the Age 60 rule and other forms of attrition will require 53,000 replacement pilots. The usual channels of supply--the military, universities and flight schools--could produce little more than 90,000 in this period, a shortfall of 30,000 pilots.
The study, based on surveys of key sources of supply, coupled with an analysis of demand, is being refined. A final report is expected in August.
Common issues among aviation educators are rising costs and high fuel prices and how these may affect decisions of aspiring career pilots. A perplexing question is the impact on potential candidates of the industry's persistent turmoil, the string of airline bankruptcies, labor-management disputes and changing professional prospects.
"The dream is alive, but it's becoming more of a challenge for all of us," says Thomas Carney, professor and head of the department of Aviation Technology at Purdue University. Carney says he gets weekly updates on Jet A prices from a fixed base operator at Lafayette, Ind., where Purdue's aircraft fleet is fueled, and "new prices are scary."
In-state Purdue students pay $14,458 a year in tuition, including housing, books and supplies. Flight fees are separate and expensive: $19,071 for commercial/instrument rating, for example. The total cost for an in-state flight student, will run more than $90,000 for the four-year program. For out-of-state students the cost is an additional $3,454 each year. Financial aid is available, as at all schools, but the expense represents a real commitment.
Purdue's admission policy for the flight program is highly selective. It offers admission to 140 students a year from among hundreds of applicants, and usually 70 enter the program. They are typically goal-oriented and score high on the Scholastic Aptitude Test.
Carney wonders whether parents and students aren't reaching a critical point regarding the affordability of programs. "We're getting closer to it [that point] rather than further away," he says.
The Fltops.com study may be the first analysis of supply and demand related to the civilian pilot workforce. In the past, there was little need to look deeper, says Lou Smith, the counseling service's president. "Since the 1970s, the industry has benefited from the human subsidy of military aviators." As many as 5,000 military-trained pilots a year entered the civilian workforce during the early 1970s. That number is decreasing to a trickle. Based on recent contacts with the military, Smith reports the total number of former military pilots entering the workforce through 2017 is expected to be little more than 8,000 pilots.
The steady decline of those with military training entering into the civilian workforce has been a longtime concern of Bill McCurry, professor and chair of the Aeronautical Management Technology Dept. at Arizona State University. He and others in education have discussed a proposal for the creation of a national aviation academy where deserving students could receive a first-rate education with government support. It's better to start work on such a project now, he says, rather than wait until industry faces a crisis in coming years.
While 8,000 pilots, largely at the U.S. network airlines, are furloughed currently, two-thirds of those are employed at low-cost carriers, regional airlines, air taxis and other flight operations, according to the Fltops.com report. These pilots retain their seniority numbers at the major carriers and could be called back from furlough. In any case, most of these pilots are in the current mix.
Mike Yocum, president of the Regional Airline Academy in DeLand, Fla., and Phoenix, also thinks that pilot hiring will be a large issue at the regional airlines. Despite the widespread perception of industry turmoil, "there's never been a better time to get involved," he says. The academy placed 154 pilots with regional carriers in 2005.
The RAA program aims to "shape attitudes" that are required for professionals working in today's environment, says Yocum, an industry veteran who served as an executive with Pennsylvania Airlines and US Airways' Allegheny Commuter System. Candidates undergo a process that determines whether they can do the job.
Although Yocum says, "It's never going to be like it was, with Delta [Air Lines] pilots making $350,000 a year and working 10 days a month," the job still offers a handsome salary, and with hard work and persistence a student can do well fairly quickly. Andrew Bell, 23, an RAA graduate, is already serving as a CRJ700 captain at fast-growing Chautauqua Airlines of Indianapolis. He says student pilots worried about their career should shrug off their frustrations.
"When I was instructing and had about 900 hr., 9/11 happened. All the airlines were furloughing, and no one was hiring right away, but I continued to instruct and eventually, not too long afterward, got a job at Colgan Air. This, in turn, gave me the experience I needed for Chautauqua."
Tim Kruger, 20, a sophomore in aerospace management at Averett College in Virginia, is not deterred by the industry's current problems. "I'm looking at going into the industry that I have always loved.I'm passionate about flying. Even though the salaries are not as good as they used to be, this is something I can overlook because this is what I want to do."
Flight training programs have taken a hit from industry upheaval, including the terrorism threat, just like any other aviation component. Michael Karim, dean, College of Aeronautics at Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) in Melbourne, says the rule of thumb is that student recruiting shows a three-year lag after a jolt like 9/11. It proved true with the 70-member freshmen class of 2002 among the smallest. In 2005 and in this coming school year, class sizes are larger by about 30% each year.
The institute offers flight options in three programs: aviation management, aeronautical science and aviation meteorology. There are 4,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degree programs. Undergraduate tuition is $25,100-27,540 a year, depending on the program. The flight fee for training toward a private pilot's license, a 50-hr. package, runs $6,510, and that's just the beginning.
In recent years, FIT courses have shifted to connect with needs of regional airlines, and Karim has begun developing associations with various carriers.
Arizona State's close relationship with Mesa Airlines may be setting a standard for cooperative programs of the future. ASU and Mesa have a contract relationship. Students are trained by Mesa instructors, and they pay for the training directly to Mesa. There are now 35 ASU graduates flying for the growing regional carrier.
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., has had success with internship programs for students at regional carriers. It is working on keying training in checklist and procedures to specific carriers, says John Merwin, program manager with the Aeronautical Sciences department. Embry-Riddle's enrollment declined after 2001 from a peak of 1,750 students but is now steady at 1,300. Merwin says all schools have stepped up their marketing programs to attract more qualified students.
A postgraduate pilot training program will no longer be offered at Embry-Riddle. Merwin says the program brought in students who were seeking to switch careers into aviation and were willing to pay $60,000 for tuition and fees for the one-year program. Some 50 students have graduated and another 50 remain in the pipeline and will complete the training. Embry-Riddle's board of directors decided to cancel the course, largely because it "was an expensive program and they had [yet] to see a return."
The authors of the Fltops.com study suggest that industry will need to shoulder more of the training burden in coming years.
"Recruiters at the regional airlines will spend the next few years in a blender trying to staff their airlines," Smith says. "They will have to contend with what the military services have always dealt with--massive defections--but the regional airlines don't have the $2-million-per-pilot training budget of the military."
During the 1960s, when the need for new pilots was great, airlines paid training costs as an incentive, Smith says. In the 1970s and 1980s, the military used bonuses and extended commitment levels to retain pilots. The regional airline pilot workforce now numbers about 20,000, the size of the U.S. Air Force pilot staff during the Cold War. He says something on the civilian side will have to give to ensure adequate staffing.
Pilot Training School Enrollment Rises, but Study Suggests More Needed to Meet Future Demand
AW&ST
05/22/2006, page 51
James Ott, Cincinnati
Filling cockpit seats, particularly at regional airlines, is likely to be more difficult than expected when as many as 8,000 pilots are currently furloughed at U.S. airlines and a future shortage is probable, according to a report by a career counseling service.
Some key training executives agree with conclusions of the preliminary report by Fltops.com. It suggests a looming shortfall of candidates in the U.S. to meet rising demand for pilots that the FAA forecasts through 2017. Fewer military-trained crewmen entering the ranks is the largest contributing factor to the predicted failure to meet hiring goals. Other factors at play in this tough post- Sept. 11 business environment, such as high entry costs, could pose insurmountable obstacles to those who are considering piloting as a career.
Among educators, these concerns have resurrected the idea for a government-sponsored national aviation academy to take up the slack in training future pilots.
The Fltops.com study holds that 120,000 new airline pilots will be needed in the U.S. through 2017, based on the FAA's fleet forecast. Growth alone will account for 67,000 new positions. Retirements under the Age 60 rule and other forms of attrition will require 53,000 replacement pilots. The usual channels of supply--the military, universities and flight schools--could produce little more than 90,000 in this period, a shortfall of 30,000 pilots.
The study, based on surveys of key sources of supply, coupled with an analysis of demand, is being refined. A final report is expected in August.
Common issues among aviation educators are rising costs and high fuel prices and how these may affect decisions of aspiring career pilots. A perplexing question is the impact on potential candidates of the industry's persistent turmoil, the string of airline bankruptcies, labor-management disputes and changing professional prospects.
"The dream is alive, but it's becoming more of a challenge for all of us," says Thomas Carney, professor and head of the department of Aviation Technology at Purdue University. Carney says he gets weekly updates on Jet A prices from a fixed base operator at Lafayette, Ind., where Purdue's aircraft fleet is fueled, and "new prices are scary."
In-state Purdue students pay $14,458 a year in tuition, including housing, books and supplies. Flight fees are separate and expensive: $19,071 for commercial/instrument rating, for example. The total cost for an in-state flight student, will run more than $90,000 for the four-year program. For out-of-state students the cost is an additional $3,454 each year. Financial aid is available, as at all schools, but the expense represents a real commitment.
Purdue's admission policy for the flight program is highly selective. It offers admission to 140 students a year from among hundreds of applicants, and usually 70 enter the program. They are typically goal-oriented and score high on the Scholastic Aptitude Test.
Carney wonders whether parents and students aren't reaching a critical point regarding the affordability of programs. "We're getting closer to it [that point] rather than further away," he says.
The Fltops.com study may be the first analysis of supply and demand related to the civilian pilot workforce. In the past, there was little need to look deeper, says Lou Smith, the counseling service's president. "Since the 1970s, the industry has benefited from the human subsidy of military aviators." As many as 5,000 military-trained pilots a year entered the civilian workforce during the early 1970s. That number is decreasing to a trickle. Based on recent contacts with the military, Smith reports the total number of former military pilots entering the workforce through 2017 is expected to be little more than 8,000 pilots.
The steady decline of those with military training entering into the civilian workforce has been a longtime concern of Bill McCurry, professor and chair of the Aeronautical Management Technology Dept. at Arizona State University. He and others in education have discussed a proposal for the creation of a national aviation academy where deserving students could receive a first-rate education with government support. It's better to start work on such a project now, he says, rather than wait until industry faces a crisis in coming years.
While 8,000 pilots, largely at the U.S. network airlines, are furloughed currently, two-thirds of those are employed at low-cost carriers, regional airlines, air taxis and other flight operations, according to the Fltops.com report. These pilots retain their seniority numbers at the major carriers and could be called back from furlough. In any case, most of these pilots are in the current mix.
Mike Yocum, president of the Regional Airline Academy in DeLand, Fla., and Phoenix, also thinks that pilot hiring will be a large issue at the regional airlines. Despite the widespread perception of industry turmoil, "there's never been a better time to get involved," he says. The academy placed 154 pilots with regional carriers in 2005.
The RAA program aims to "shape attitudes" that are required for professionals working in today's environment, says Yocum, an industry veteran who served as an executive with Pennsylvania Airlines and US Airways' Allegheny Commuter System. Candidates undergo a process that determines whether they can do the job.
Although Yocum says, "It's never going to be like it was, with Delta [Air Lines] pilots making $350,000 a year and working 10 days a month," the job still offers a handsome salary, and with hard work and persistence a student can do well fairly quickly. Andrew Bell, 23, an RAA graduate, is already serving as a CRJ700 captain at fast-growing Chautauqua Airlines of Indianapolis. He says student pilots worried about their career should shrug off their frustrations.
"When I was instructing and had about 900 hr., 9/11 happened. All the airlines were furloughing, and no one was hiring right away, but I continued to instruct and eventually, not too long afterward, got a job at Colgan Air. This, in turn, gave me the experience I needed for Chautauqua."
Tim Kruger, 20, a sophomore in aerospace management at Averett College in Virginia, is not deterred by the industry's current problems. "I'm looking at going into the industry that I have always loved.I'm passionate about flying. Even though the salaries are not as good as they used to be, this is something I can overlook because this is what I want to do."
Flight training programs have taken a hit from industry upheaval, including the terrorism threat, just like any other aviation component. Michael Karim, dean, College of Aeronautics at Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) in Melbourne, says the rule of thumb is that student recruiting shows a three-year lag after a jolt like 9/11. It proved true with the 70-member freshmen class of 2002 among the smallest. In 2005 and in this coming school year, class sizes are larger by about 30% each year.
The institute offers flight options in three programs: aviation management, aeronautical science and aviation meteorology. There are 4,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degree programs. Undergraduate tuition is $25,100-27,540 a year, depending on the program. The flight fee for training toward a private pilot's license, a 50-hr. package, runs $6,510, and that's just the beginning.
In recent years, FIT courses have shifted to connect with needs of regional airlines, and Karim has begun developing associations with various carriers.
Arizona State's close relationship with Mesa Airlines may be setting a standard for cooperative programs of the future. ASU and Mesa have a contract relationship. Students are trained by Mesa instructors, and they pay for the training directly to Mesa. There are now 35 ASU graduates flying for the growing regional carrier.
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Fla., has had success with internship programs for students at regional carriers. It is working on keying training in checklist and procedures to specific carriers, says John Merwin, program manager with the Aeronautical Sciences department. Embry-Riddle's enrollment declined after 2001 from a peak of 1,750 students but is now steady at 1,300. Merwin says all schools have stepped up their marketing programs to attract more qualified students.
A postgraduate pilot training program will no longer be offered at Embry-Riddle. Merwin says the program brought in students who were seeking to switch careers into aviation and were willing to pay $60,000 for tuition and fees for the one-year program. Some 50 students have graduated and another 50 remain in the pipeline and will complete the training. Embry-Riddle's board of directors decided to cancel the course, largely because it "was an expensive program and they had [yet] to see a return."
The authors of the Fltops.com study suggest that industry will need to shoulder more of the training burden in coming years.
"Recruiters at the regional airlines will spend the next few years in a blender trying to staff their airlines," Smith says. "They will have to contend with what the military services have always dealt with--massive defections--but the regional airlines don't have the $2-million-per-pilot training budget of the military."
During the 1960s, when the need for new pilots was great, airlines paid training costs as an incentive, Smith says. In the 1970s and 1980s, the military used bonuses and extended commitment levels to retain pilots. The regional airline pilot workforce now numbers about 20,000, the size of the U.S. Air Force pilot staff during the Cold War. He says something on the civilian side will have to give to ensure adequate staffing.
pilotyip
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- Posts
- 13,629
WOW negative vibes from the pro's
WOW! Look at all the negative vibes, you post something out of magazine and all you get is shots. There was a pilot shortage in1965, when UAL was paying for training for pvt pilots, it going to return. BTW Capt Mark some of the less bright pilots I know have college degrees and many of the non-degreed guys could probably in a short time fly rings around you. Oh! I forgot you got hired at FedEx at age 25 due to your extraordinary ability.
WOW! Look at all the negative vibes, you post something out of magazine and all you get is shots. There was a pilot shortage in1965, when UAL was paying for training for pvt pilots, it going to return. BTW Capt Mark some of the less bright pilots I know have college degrees and many of the non-degreed guys could probably in a short time fly rings around you. Oh! I forgot you got hired at FedEx at age 25 due to your extraordinary ability.
Last edited:
A Squared
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onthebeach
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Totally agree with ASquared
There is no shortage of professional pilots.
There is a shortage of people willing to do what you want, to the standards you require, for the money you pay, and the conditions to which you subject them.
Change the last two items and you will find that your "looming pilot shortage" will evaporate.
There is no shortage of professional pilots.
There is a shortage of people willing to do what you want, to the standards you require, for the money you pay, and the conditions to which you subject them.
Change the last two items and you will find that your "looming pilot shortage" will evaporate.
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