Lo and behold, Forklift Joe running into same problem as Oak Creek Timmy

[SkiFishFly]

Alls I gots to say is

no Concessions!

 

[PCL_128]

they sugar coat the estimates,

Actually, it's the exact opposite. Corporations for the past few years have been so scared of the DOJ and SEC that they've been consistently under-reporting projected EPS so they don't have to worry about accusations of boosting the short-term stock price with fake earnings projections. If anything, I expect AAI's earnings to be higher than the company is estimating.

i am simply going off of what wall street did and it went down 4%. if the stock is in theory the present value of future earnings then those earnings decreased by 4% according to investors actions.

The efficient market hypothesis is a sham. Ever read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street?" Trying to judge the health of a company by the change in stock price is like trying to determine the temperature outside by putting a thermometer in the freezer.

if we are so bad and a drain, why even buy us?

The two companies put together would make an excellent route structure, and it's just a good fit overall. Midwest on its own isn't an attractive purchase, but by combining the two operations, you could make a truly great airline.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

could that have been the change on 7/6/7. 6.7% drop. we'll know the real number on the 26th.

The $45 has been forcasted for awhile now. It just change.

 

[CitationLover]

The efficient market hypothesis is a sham. Ever read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street?" Trying to judge the health of a company by the change in stock price is like trying to determine the temperature outside by putting a thermometer in the freezer.

Everyone has their opinions regarding the "theories" on Wall Street. I know some brokers who would disagree with Malkiel's thesis. These theories are simply ways to sell books. I was just using one of them to show gt1900 that the market reaction could be used to explain a change in future earnings.

The argument was not the "health" of air tran, but rather if simply 2Q earnings estimates changed.

 

[Ty Webb]

While I love the headline, the rest of your post is pretty devoid of logic.

AirTran is a money-making machine, with 7 consecutive years of profit, while growing at 20% each year.

MEH . . . . ehhh. Not so good.

Be a moot point soon, anyway.


,.

 

[CitationLover]

While I love the headline, the rest of your post is pretty devoid of logic.

AirTran is a money-making machine, with 7 consecutive years of profit, while growing at 20% each year.

MEH . . . . ehhh. Not so good.

Be a moot point soon, anyway.


,.

Devoid of logic? I am simply stating they are ALSO noticing the lowering of domestic demand on their yield and as such lowered expectations for their 2Q numbers. I never said AirTran was not making money, etc (they better since they are a relatively new airline and are growing).

AirTran is a money making machine? $10/share! no, Apple is a money making machine. That being said, please get a money making machine sized contract.

http://www.travelandleisure.com/worldsbest/2007/results.cfm?cat=othercairlinesdomestic

 

[PCL_128]

AirTran is a money making machine? $10/share! no, Apple is a money making machine.

Why on earth are you looking at a share price to determine whether a company is making money? There is absolutely zero relation between raw share price and profitability. As an investor, I'd much rather put my money into AAI than AAPL. Apple's shares are priced at over 30 times forward earnings. AirTran's shares are a mere 11 times forward earnings. I wouldn't put my money anywhere near AAPL.

 

[CitationLover]

AirTran's shares are a mere 11 times forward earnings. I wouldn't put my money anywhere near AAPL.

Sure future PE is 11. AMR is at 7 so why not put your money there? Airtran's current PE is 40. Could it be that the FUTURE AirTran shareprice will fall further? These boys thinks so.

http://www.istockresearch.com/model.html?aai

$4/share in the future, yikes!

I look at share price because that is what it costs me. Profitability will determine how much it will earn for me in general. If AirTran falls to $4 we will be merged twice in the next few years as you will be bought. Actually I was wrong, Exxon/Mobil is a cash machine. $3.50/gal today, bastards!

 

[PCL_128]

Sure future PE is 11. AMR is at 7 so why not put your money there?

I don't put my money in any airline stock. That being said, when you look at all of the valuation metrics, AMR is just plain scary compared to AAI. AMR's shares are over 29 times book value. Compare that to AirTran's shares at only 2.5 times book. AMR's debt/equity should scare any good investor, also.

Airtran's current PE is 40.

Looking at the PE for the TTM is useless for a company that's growing at the rate that AirTran is. Forward PE is a far better indicator.

Could it be that the FUTURE AirTran shareprice will fall further? These boys thinks so.

http://www.istockresearch.com/model.html?aai

$4/share in the future, yikes!

Looks to me like many of the figures in their fancy little formula are wrong. A PE of 78? Not sure where they're getting their numbers.

I look at share price because that is what it costs me.

Share price is meaningless. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have cost 5 figures for many years now simply because Warren Buffet doesn't like stock splits. Share price doesn't mean anything.

 

[gt1900]

Citation..... Just curious, if AAI's stock is going down to $4 per share, then why does AAI have a Mean Recomendation of 1.8..... MEH has a Mean Recomendation of 3.0 (one of the worst in the industry)... HMMMM... Maybe Analysts think AAI isn't such a bad buy afterall.... Well, Since AAI's 1.8 is about the best in the industry.... Please, mister stock guru.. "splain that to me".... I guess most investors are wrong saying that AAI is a "buy" rating... HMMMM.. Why is AAI rated as a "buy" when their stock is going to tank to $4 per share... Please "splain" that to me... Your gonna get over your head real quick.. God, guys like you make me wanna staple the MEH fo's to the bottom.. I hope most aren't like you...