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Katrina updates...

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OIL HAS ALREADY PASSED $70.00/Barrel. Let's all pray for the people in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

http://home.peoplepc.com/psp/newsstory.asp?cat=news&referrer=welcome&id=20050828/431136c0_3ca6_15526200508281741967876
Katrina Targeting U.S. Oil Operations
Sunday, August 28, 2005

NEW YORK - With crude oil prices near record levels, a hurricane targeted the heart of America's oil and refinery operations Sunday, shutting down an estimated 1 million barrels of refining capacity and sharply curbing offshore production throughout the region.

Katrina, a Category 5 storm expected to strike New Orleans early Monday, was churning through the Gulf of Mexico. The area is crucial to the nation's energy infrastructure - offshore oil and gas production, import terminals, pipeline networks and numerous refining operations throughout southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

The impact was immediate Sunday night when electronic trading resumed on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as crude oil futures spiked $4.50 per barrel, putting the cost above $70 for the first time since oil began trading there in 1983.

The hurricane followed a path similar to the one taken last September by Ivan, which caused heavy damage and reduced the region's output for months. Yet Katrina's 165-mph wind was fiercer.

Oil companies have evacuated workers and shut down more than 600,000 barrels of daily production in the Gulf. Refiners closed down more than 1 million barrels of refining output by Sunday, but that amount could be higher because not every producer reports data, said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover.

"We're shutting down all kinds of everything. This is the big one," he said. "This is unmitigated, bad news for consumers."

Gasoline futures soared more than 20 cents per gallon, above $2.12 per gallon, and natural gas was up $2.20 per 1,000 cubic feet in the opening minutes of trade. The "out of control" buying is spurred by the prospect that the region's numerous refineries could be idled for weeks by flooding, power outages, or both, Beutel said.

The U.S. has ample crude oil supplies, even if major hurricane destruction trims Gulf oil output and foreign imports, but refining capacity is extraordinarily tight. As a result, prices for gasoline, heating oil, jet fuel and other products have flirted with records and could go even higher this week.

"If this thing knocks out significant quantities of refining capacity ... we're going to be in deep, dark trouble," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York.

The market has been on edge for months, with traders and speculators buying on the slightest fear. With Katrina, all those fears could be realized, Beutel said.

"Basically I could spill a can of oil at my local gas station and you'd see the price of crude go up by $1 per barrel," he said.

Crude settled at $66.13 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $1.36 after hitting $68 last week.

In many ways, Katrina was expected to be inconsequential to the energy industry, with many traders selling on Friday as the storm moved across Florida and was seen as moving north and striking the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm with little impact. That all changed Saturday, when the system gained power and charged west, directly into areas of offshore oil production.

ChevronTexaco Corp. completed evacuations of all workers in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico and nonessential workers in the western Gulf late Saturday, company spokesman Matt Carmichael said.

Chevron has about 2,100 employees and contractors working in the Gulf, Carmichael said. Chevron will continue to produce 90 percent of its normal production by remote as long as weather cooperates, he said.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which processes loads from tankers too large for mainland ports, evacuated all workers and stopped unloading ships on Saturday morning said Mark Bugg, the terminal's manager of scheduling. The LOOP, 20 miles offshore, is the nation's largest oil import terminal and handles 11 percent of U.S. oil imports.

Royal Dutch-Shell Group evacuated more than 1,000 offshore workers by Saturday. Only those in the far west remained, the company said on its Web site. BP PLC and ExxonMobil Corp. also brought workers ashore Saturday.

Shell estimated 420,000 barrels of oil and 1.35 million cubic feet of gas per day will be shut in at its central and eastern Gulf facilities. Exxon Mobil said it has ceased daily production of 3,000 barrels of oil and 50 million cubic feet of gas.

Valero Energy Corp. evacuated all but a few workers at its 260,000-barrel-a-day St. Charles refinery on Saturday. Murphy Oil Corp. also shut down its 120,000-barrel-a-day Meraux, La., refinery, and Exxon Mobil Corp. planned to shut down its 183,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Chalmette, La.

Motiva Enterprises, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell PLC and state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., began implementing hurricane contingency plans at its 225,000-barrel-a-day Norco refinery on Saturday. Motiva also was exploring contingencies for its 235,000-barrel-a-day Convent refinery, about 45 miles west of New Orleans, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
 
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Who cares about oil prices? I hope everyone will walk away from this upcomming disaster.

FD
 
Flyingdutchman said:
Who cares about oil prices? I hope everyone will walk away from this upcomming disaster.

FD

That is exactly what I was thinking, I dont give a dam about oil prices, lets wish our fellow citizens our best.
 
Re: the Superdome

A guy on the news said the floor of the superdome is 12-15 feet above "city level", which is 9 feet below sea level. And even if the floor floods, there's capacity in the stands for 50,000.

The Superdome is rated for 200MPH winds, but as with tornados, once you add windborne debris all bets are off. At least it's concrete, and not light steel sheeting over a steel frame like other stadiums. If they can keep the wind from getting inside, the structure will be able to withstand the pressure.
 
Well, I had a whole shindig typed out, took me 5 minutes to do, then I lost it, so I'll try again...

It just feels wierd...I sit here tonight and play my Xbox, watch tv, prepare for work tomorrow...All the while, hundreds of thousand of folks down south prepare for the worst. I wonder what I will have for dinner tomorrow night, they wonder if they will be alive in 12-24 hours. I worked in the yard today, enjoying the sunshine. They worked to try and save their possessions and get themselves out. I will sleep in my bed tonight, they will not get a wink of sleep, listening only to the growing sounds of the storm outside, wondering if they will live through the hurricane, or if they will live through the flooding, or the tornadoes.
I feel wrong for living my normal live while these folks are about to experience a natural disaster of a grand scale. I don't care about what my gas prices do, get yourselves to somewhere safe, and if you can't do that, hold your loved ones close and tell them how much they mean to you. I will be saying a prayer for everyone involved.
I remember going down to Gulfport after Ivan ( i think) and saying, this is so much worse than what I saw on TV. TV is the ultimate "desensitizer." I can't image what you all are going to go through in the next day but I pray for you. TV will never do it justice.

Godspeed to you all.
 
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I was out of town/out of touch this weekend.. needless to say, I almost feel out of my chair this evening when I saw the news about Katrina... last I heard it was a Cat 1 hurricane with the possibility of increasing in strength as it passed over the gulf... anyway, holy $h!t when I saw it was a Cat 5 with 160mph winds!! My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the path of this beast. I could be mistaken, but isn't this the strongest hurricane to hit in decades??
 
NWS warning.... "Death is coming"...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED.
ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.


AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH
IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.


THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
 
Fly_Chick said:
Island Hopper, what was the link to that excerpt? I was looking for it yet could not find it.

There is a lot of traffic on the internet that this "NWS" warning is a fake.

It doesn't sound like a NWS warning, and no one has provided a working link.

Nu
 
METAR - HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KMSY 290153Z 04027G34KT 10SM SCT019 27/24 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND
03034/0152 RAE28 SLP012 P0001 T02720239
KMSY 290126Z 04025G31KT 10SM -RA BKN017 BKN046 BKN055 27/24 A2958
RMK AO2 PK WND 04032/0059 P0001

DECODED METARS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
ID DATE TIME TEMP DEW WIND CEILING VIS ALTIM WEATHER
KMSY 08-29 0200 81 75 NE 31 None 10 2956 Windy

TAF - TERMINAL FORECASTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
KMSY 290105Z 290124 05015G25KT 6SM -RA SCT020 BKN040
TEMPO 0206 VRB65KT 1SM +SHRA BKN010 OVC020CB
FM0700 04045G75KT 1SM +SHRA SCT005 OVC020CB
TEMPO 0913 VRB120KT 1/4SM +SHRA OVC010CB
FM1800 28045KT 6SM -RA SCT020 BKN050
TEMPO 1822 3SM -RA SCT030 BKN080
 
Question - listening to a plane in the eye of the hurricane... What is the top of the hurricane? To what altitude do the hurricane winds extend? Is there a typical answer?
 
This from the NWS site...

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/hurricane.html

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WHILE THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY...THE
HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE UP TO THE
HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR. KATRINA WILL STILL BE A HURRICANE WELL INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

PEOPLE NEED TO COMPLETE PRECAUTIONS NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE MOVED
INSIDE. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OF
SEVERAL DAYS TO PERHAPS A FEW WEEKS. PEOPLE RESIDING IN HOMES THAT
ARE NOT WELL CONSTRUCTED WILL WANT TO MOVE TO SAFER ALTERNATIVE
LOCATIONS TO RIDE THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE THE VERY
STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR.

THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS SITUATION CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED!
HURRICANE KATRINA IS THE SAME STRENGTH AS HURRICANE CAMILLE WHEN IT
MADE LANDFALL IN 1969...BUT IS EVEN LARGER IN SIZE...MEANING THE
POTENTIAL DAMAGE MAY COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA. IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KATRINA WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...DO NOT TAKE IT
LIGHTLY! PLEASE FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF STATE...COUNTY AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WITH REGARD TO EVACUATIONS AND
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES.
 
Just a note: All broadcast news from NOLA has been terminated to allow personel to evacuate. Live streaming feeds on those stations have been switched to sister stations in Baton Rouge, Biloxi and Orlando.

Nu
 
Some good news I guess, if you can call it that is that She's weakining. Pressure has risen to 908mb's and the eyewall is starting to deteriorate. The winds at down to 160 and landfall is expected at 150-155mph. The downside is the eyewall deteriorating. They say this usually results in the winds spreadying, meaning the 200 mile wide swath of hurrican force winds may increase to 260 miles wide, 130 miles out from the center. though it has also jogged about 5 -10 miles to the east, placing it just east of New Orleans, and placing it in the worst case scenario of the front of the storm bringing the storm surge into Lake Pontchatrain and the the West side of the eyes Northerly winds, pushing that water into New Orleans from the Lake.
 
Here is a link to the apocalyptic one:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LIX/NPWLIX

It looks to me to be a valid NOAA server (srh is "Southern Regional Headquarters") although I cannot find it by clicking around on the NOAA site itself. It may have been superseded.
 

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