• This site moved from forums.flightinfo.com to flightinfo.com. Please update your bookmarks.

Kat now a Cat 5

RJPilott

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Posts
531
Total Time
some
Good luck to everyone down there. This one looks scary.
 

wrxpilot

The proud, the few
Joined
Jun 26, 2004
Posts
901
Total Time
-
This one is going to go down in the history books. I seriously hope New Orleans is not wiped off the map... This storm may effect the entire country economically, and the loss of life could be horrific.
 
Last edited:

RJPilott

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 16, 2002
Posts
531
Total Time
some
wrxpilot said:
This one is going to go down in the history books. I seriously hope New Orleans is not wiped off the map... This storm may effect the entire country econimically, and the loss of life could be horrific.

Expect oil to go nuts tomorrow. Im thinking it may hit 75-80.
 

FurloughedAgain

Cabin Heating & Air Tech.
Joined
Jun 5, 2002
Posts
1,657
Total Time
10000+
The cost to property and human life will be catestrophic. No question.

Once the dust settles and the water begins to recede, we'll have to deal with the economic fallout.

Fill up your gas tanks tonight, because oil's going to spike tomorrow. (as mentioned on another thread it will actually take 10 days before an increase in the price of crude reaches the pumps, but suppliers will do a little profit-taking before then)

Storm aims for heart of U.S. oil industry
Gas prices may jump sharply
Sunday, August 28, 2005 By BEN RAINES
Staff Reporter
Oil traders closed business on Friday confident that Hurricane Katrina would hit too far to the east to affect the price of oil and natural gas.

That was before the National Hurricane Center shifted the storm's possible path to a more westerly track that slices through the nation's main oil artery and could result in record prices for a barrel of crude within a matter of days.

If Hurricane Katrina holds true to predictions and tracks north through the toe of Louisiana's boot, much of the nation's oil and natural gas infrastructure will be exposed to 140 mile per hour winds, 30- to 50-foot waves, and water current speeds of around 20 knots all the way from the surface to the sea floor.

"This storm is going to pass through the meat of the oil and gas fields. The whole country will feel it, because it's going to cripple us and the country's whole economy," said Capt. Buddy Cantrelle with Kevin Gros Offshore, which supplies rigs via a fleet of large crew vessels.

Nation's oil center

The equipment located in the storm's likely path includes the bulk of the nation's oil and gas production platforms, thousands of miles of pipelines and -- perhaps most importantly for national gasoline prices -- much of the country's refinery capacity. In addition, the south Louisiana coastline serves as the entry point for around a third of the nation's imported oil.

Last year's Hurricane Ivan, which came ashore along the Alabama-Florida line moving through an area mostly devoid of rigs, caused widespread destruction both above and below water in the fields off Alabama and eastern Louisiana. Floating rigs were found drifting hundreds of miles from the wells they had been plumbing, while some rigs with legs fixed to the bottom toppled into the sea. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of pipelines were tangled and torn to pieces by sea currents and massive underwater mudslides.

The full extent of the damage wasn't known for days and the Gulf lost nearly 30 percent of production capacity for well over a month, which drove prices for oil up $12 a barrel within a few weeks. Prices for both oil and natural gas surged upward and stayed high for months.

Major threat

But that storm was just a baby tap on the Gulf's infrastructure compared with the blow some in the oil industry are predicting from Katrina.

"No matter where it hits at this point, it's going to hit a lot of rigs, and the whole country is going to notice," Cantrelle said. "And if this thing comes up through Port Fourchon like they're calling for right now, well, that's where 30 percent of the country's oil comes ashore. They are forecasting 40-foot seas for Fourchon."

Port Fourchon, located at the tail end of a barely there two-lane highway just a foot or two above sea level, sits exposed to the sea almost like an island lighthouse thanks to the loss of thousands of acres of marsh that once surrounded it. The port complex -- like that skinny strip of a highway now so low and close to the water that fishermen use parts of the shoulder as a miles-long boat ramp -- has been rendered ever more vulnerable by the massive erosion of Louisiana's coastal marshes.

"A storm of this magnitude, we're expecting some serious damage here," C.J. Cheramie with the Fourchon Port Police said Saturday afternoon. "They started evacuating the rigs once the storm got into the Gulf. We haven't seen any helicopter traffic in awhile, suggesting that everyone has made it in. We are evacuating inland. We'll try to reopen the port as quickly as we can. ... there's just no way to predict what will happen with a storm this size."

Cheramie said he hadn't heard about a helicopter crash reported earlier in the day. Cantrelle, with the crew boat company, told the Register that one of his boats picked up all three passangers unharmed after their copter was forced to ditch into the ocean on its way back to shore.

Thousands of the 5,000 rig platforms in the Gulf are located in the predicted path of the storm, and many of them are aging. In previous storms, it has been the older rigs that most often end up wrecked.

"Lot of these jack-up rigs, we've been towing them around for 25 or 30 years. These things are getting to be pretty old," said Bobby Autin, with Louisiana International Marine, a rig towing company. "The storm shifted so fast nobody really had a chance to do much but get the people off the rigs. We didn't move any. I sent all of my boats to Texas."

Lots of work ahead

Autin said that as soon as Katrina makes landfall he will scramble his boats back toward Fourchon because he expects there will be a lot of work.

"There are always going to be rigs in trouble after a storm like this. We may have to tow some, or some we will even hold in place if they've tipped over until they can get to them to work on," Autin said. "We were all stunned earlier this year by Cindy when it came through. It was just a tropical storm and it did a lot of damage offshore. They're saying this storm is on the same track. Imagine what it's going to be like if a category 5 comes rolling through these rigs."
 

mudkow60

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 23, 2003
Posts
544
Total Time
'bit
It is kind of a Catch 22 for me...

I do not want my area affected (Perdido Key, on the FL/AL line). But if I get missed by the affects, that means New Orleans will be hit, and that would mean even more devistation.

On an aviation note, my Navy SAR helo unit out of Pensacola will hopefully be flying two birds to help out N.O. if they take the brunt. If we get hit, I may be out of a flying job for the next 3 months.
 

aucfi

Endowed Member
Joined
Feb 16, 2005
Posts
346
Total Time
1700
Went to bed last night it was a weak Cat 3 @ 115mph, woke up today and a Cat 5 with 175mph winds! Thats equilivant to an F3 tornado.

How long has it been since a storm was in the northern Gulf of Mexico? Only two others this year, Dennis and Emily, both of which were back in July if I remember correctly. That part of the Gulf of Mexico water has been untapped for almost a month. They said temps were 90+ degrees in some places. Id hate to say it but I wouldnt be surprised to see it strengthen even more.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst...
 
Last edited:

FurloughedAgain

Cabin Heating & Air Tech.
Joined
Jun 5, 2002
Posts
1,657
Total Time
10000+
Katrina cuts oil output by a third
August 28, 2005: 11:22 AM EDT

HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. energy companies said U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil output was cut by more than one-third on Saturday as Hurricane Katrina appeared poised to charge through central production areas toward New Orleans.

The Gulf of Mexico is home to roughly a quarter of U.S. domestic oil and gas output, with a capacity to produce about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and 12.3 billion cubic feet per day of gas.

As of Saturday, 563,000 barrels daily crude output had been shut in due to the threatening storm.

Shell Oil Co., which was evacuating all 1,019 of its offshore workers in the central and eastern Gulf on Saturday, had the bulk of closed Gulf daily oil production, with 420,000 barrels turned off.

Shell also said 1.345 billion cubic feet per day, or Bfd, of natural gas had been shut by Saturday.

Total daily Gulf natural gas output shut on Saturday was 1.9 billion cubic feet.

Chalmette Refining LLC, which operates a New Orleans-area refinery, was shutting down production in preparation for the approach of the hurricane, which is predicted to produce winds near 131 mph (210 kph) when it charges ashore on Monday.

Chalmette is a joint venture between Exxon Mobil Corp. and Venezuelan state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA and operates a 190,000-bpd refinery 9 miles east of downtown New Orleans.

The shutdown was to be completed by Katrina's predicted landfall on Monday afternoon, said Chalmette spokeswoman Nora Scheller.

Other southeast Louisiana refineries were operating on Saturday but were reducing staff and preparing for possible shutdowns, the companies said.

Ship traffic along the Mississippi River from the Gulf of Mexico to New Orleans was halted on Saturday when ship pilots said conditions were already unsafe to continue moving vessels along the waterway.

The U.S. Coast Guard was warning mariners of possible waterway closures along the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts as early as Sunday afternoon.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port LLC stopped offloading tankers in the Gulf of Mexico at midday on Saturday. The LOOP, which is the only U.S. offshore oil port, takes an average 1 million barrels in foreign crude from tankers in the Gulf.

While offloading is halted, the LOOP is supplying refiners via pipeline with crude stored on shore.

Katrina, which was a major Category 5 hurricane by Sunday morning, according to the Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, meaning it would likely produce catastrophic damage with winds of at least 155 mph (249 kph).

Katrina was originally projected to take a path west across southern Florida, turn north in the eastern Gulf and strike the Florida Panhandle as a minimal hurricane.

As late as Friday afternoon, many producers were taking a wait-and-see approach common with eastern Gulf storms, where oil and gas drilling and production are sparse.

But the storm's long drift westward Friday afternoon and evening meant it was gaining intensity from deep, warm Gulf waters and would not turn north in time to avoid production areas.

Katrina is expected to reach land "sometime between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m." Monday, according to CNN meteorologist Brad Huffines.
 

Flying Illini

Hit me Peter!
Joined
Mar 9, 2003
Posts
2,291
Total Time
6000
This is from the first article:

The full extent of the damage wasn't known for days and the Gulf lost nearly 30 percent of production capacity for well over a month, which drove prices for oil up $12 a barrel within a few weeks. Prices for both oil and natural gas surged upward and stayed high for months.
That's the scary part. $12 at that time increased prices significantly...it would seem that we will be lucky if the price only increases by $12.

$67 a barrel plus (at least) $12 =$79 a barrel. And I believe that this is a best-case scenario.

Go fill your tanks...and lawnmowers...and whatever else will hold a gallon of gas.

With Natural Gas prices rising, it looks to be an expensive winter as well.
 

Immelman

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 10, 2002
Posts
324
Total Time
340
I dont wish this storm on ANYONE and pray that people make it out of there safe. THat said, I find the storm's relation to the oil industry ironic. Fossil fuel use = warmer waters = a larger number of strong storms each year.
 

FurloughedAgain

Cabin Heating & Air Tech.
Joined
Jun 5, 2002
Posts
1,657
Total Time
10000+
Gas in the cars will be the least of our concerns, considering we all fly very thirsty little money-burners.
 
Last edited:

joe_pilot

There be whales here!
Joined
Jun 15, 2004
Posts
592
Total Time
>0
Fingers are crossed for everyone in The Big Easy and SE LA. My thoughts are with you all. Good luck. Will be there afterwards to help cleanup and rebuild.
 

FurloughedAgain

Cabin Heating & Air Tech.
Joined
Jun 5, 2002
Posts
1,657
Total Time
10000+
things getting worse by the minute...

Residents flee deadly cyclone
29aug05

NEW ORLEANS -- Residents rushed to escape Cyclone Katrina as the vicious storm threatened to hit New Orleans.

But at least 100,000 people in the city lack the transport to leave.
Coastal residents in the southeast jammed freeways and petrol stations, and a hurricane watch extended from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

"Board up your homes, make sure you have enough medicine, make sure the car has enough gas," said New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin.

"Do all things you normally do for a hurricane but treat this one differently because it is pointed towards New Orleans."

But in the French Quarter, the revellers, street musicians and fortune teller carried on like it was any other weekend.

Bands were blaring on Bourbon St, the bar tables were packed and the drinks were flowing.


"The only dangerous hurricanes so far are the ones we've been drinking," said Fred Wilson of San Francisco, as he sipped on the famous drink at Pat O'Brien's Bar. "We can't get out, so we might as well have fun."

"I'll be here tomorrow, I'm not leaving," said trombonist Eddie "Doc" Lewis. "I've been through typhoons, monsoons, tornadoes, hurricanes and every other phoon, soon or storm. I'm not worried."

As Katrina whipped through the Gulf of Mexico towards New Orleans, some tourists were forced to stay because flights and rental cars were booked up. Others were lucky enough to change reservations early and leave town.

Katrina was a Category 4 storm with about 200km/h sustained wind yesterday, but the National Hurricane Centre said it was likely to gain force over the Gulf of Mexico, where warm surface water temperatures provide high-octane fuel for hurricanes.

It could reach at least 210km/h before reaching land tomorrow.

The storm formed in the Bahamas and ripped across South Florida on Thursday, causing seven deaths, before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

Katrina could be especially devastating if it strikes New Orleans because the city sits below sea level and is dependent on levees and pumps to keep the water out.

A direct hit could submerge the city.

Louisiana and Mississippi made all lanes northbound on interstate highways. Mississippi declared a state of emergency and Alabama offered help to its neighbours.

New Orleans' worst cyclone disaster happened 40 years ago, when Hurricane Betsy blasted the Gulf Coast.
 

FurloughedAgain

Cabin Heating & Air Tech.
Joined
Jun 5, 2002
Posts
1,657
Total Time
10000+
Katrina targeting U.S. oil operations
By JUSTIN BACHMAN
AP BUSINESS WRITER
[font=Arial,Helvetica][/font]NEW YORK -- With crude oil prices already at record levels, a hurricane targeted the heart of America's oil and refinery operations Sunday, shutting down an estimated 1 million barrels of daily production and threatening to curtail refining activity in the region.

Katrina, a Category 5 storm expected to strike near New Orleans early Monday, was churning through the Gulf of Mexico. The area is crucial to the nation's energy infrastructure - offshore oil and gas production, import terminals, pipeline networks and numerous refining operations throughout southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

The hurricane followed a path similar to the one taken last September by Ivan, which caused heavy damage and reduced the region's output for months. Yet Katrina's 175-mph wind was fiercer.

Oil companies have evacuated workers and closed at about 1 million barrels of daily production in the Gulf, but that amount could be higher because not every producer reports data, said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover.

"It's not looking real friendly here. This is unmitigated, bad news for consumers," he said.

Gasoline prices could see the largest spikes because so many refineries in the region could be shut down by flooding, power outages, or both, energy analysts said.

The U.S. has ample crude oil supplies, even if major hurricane destruction trims Gulf oil output and foreign imports, but refining capacity is extraordinarily tight. As a result, prices for gasoline, heating oil, jet fuel and other products have flirted with records and could go even higher this week.

"If this thing knocks out significant quantities of refining capacity ... we're going to be in deep, dark trouble," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York.

The market has been on edge for months, with traders and speculators buying on the slightest fear. With Katrina, all those fears could be realized, Beutel said.

"Basically I could spill a can of oil at my local gas station and you'd see the price of crude go up by $1 per barrel," he said, predicting futures would likely top $70 per barrel in coming sessions.

Crude settled at $66.13 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $1.36 after hitting $68 last week.

In many ways, Katrina was expected to be inconsequential to the energy industry, with many traders selling on Friday as the storm moved across Florida and was seen as moving north and striking the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm with little impact. That all changed Saturday, when the system gained power and charged west, directly into areas of offshore oil production.

ChevronTexaco Corp. completed evacuations of all workers in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico and nonessential workers in the western Gulf late Saturday, company spokesman Matt Carmichael said.

Chevron has about 2,100 employees and contractors working in the Gulf, Carmichael said. Chevron will continue to produce 90 percent of its normal production by remote as long as weather cooperates, he said.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which processes loads from tankers too large for mainland ports, evacuated all workers and stopped unloading ships on Saturday morning said Mark Bugg, the terminal's manager of scheduling. The LOOP, 20 miles offshore, is the nation's largest oil import terminal and handles 11 percent of U.S. oil imports.

Royal Dutch-Shell Group evacuated more than 1,000 offshore workers by Saturday. Only those in the far west remained, the company said on its Web site. BP PLC and ExxonMobil Corp. also brought workers ashore Saturday.

Shell estimated 420,000 barrels of oil and 1.35 million cubic feet of gas per day will be shut in at its central and eastern Gulf facilities. Exxon Mobil said it has ceased daily production of 3,000 barrels of oil and 50 million cubic feet of gas.

Valero Energy Corp. evacuated all but a few workers at its 260,000-barrel-a-day St. Charles refinery on Saturday. Murphy Oil Corp. also shut down its 120,000-barrel-a-day Meraux, La., refinery, and Exxon Mobil Corp. planned to shut down its 183,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Chalmette, La.

Motiva Enterprises, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell PLC and state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., began implementing hurricane contingency plans at its 225,000-barrel-a-day Norco refinery on Saturday. Motiva also was exploring contingencies for its 235,000-barrel-a-day Convent refinery, about 45 miles west of New Orleans, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

 

jetflyer

Concerned Citizen
Joined
Mar 8, 2002
Posts
2,040
Total Time
6k+
OIL HAS ALREADY PASSED $70.00/Barrel. Let's all pray for the people in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

From: http://home.peoplepc.com/psp/newsstory.asp?cat=news&referrer=welcome&id=20050828/431136c0_3ca6_15526200508281741967876
Katrina Targeting U.S. Oil Operations
Sunday, August 28, 2005

NEW YORK - With crude oil prices near record levels, a hurricane targeted the heart of America's oil and refinery operations Sunday, shutting down an estimated 1 million barrels of refining capacity and sharply curbing offshore production throughout the region.

Katrina, a Category 5 storm expected to strike New Orleans early Monday, was churning through the Gulf of Mexico. The area is crucial to the nation's energy infrastructure - offshore oil and gas production, import terminals, pipeline networks and numerous refining operations throughout southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

The impact was immediate Sunday night when electronic trading resumed on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as crude oil futures spiked $4.50 per barrel, putting the cost above $70 for the first time since oil began trading there in 1983.

The hurricane followed a path similar to the one taken last September by Ivan, which caused heavy damage and reduced the region's output for months. Yet Katrina's 165-mph wind was fiercer.

Oil companies have evacuated workers and shut down more than 600,000 barrels of daily production in the Gulf. Refiners closed down more than 1 million barrels of refining output by Sunday, but that amount could be higher because not every producer reports data, said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst with Cameron Hanover.

"We're shutting down all kinds of everything. This is the big one," he said. "This is unmitigated, bad news for consumers."

Gasoline futures soared more than 20 cents per gallon, above $2.12 per gallon, and natural gas was up $2.20 per 1,000 cubic feet in the opening minutes of trade. The "out of control" buying is spurred by the prospect that the region's numerous refineries could be idled for weeks by flooding, power outages, or both, Beutel said.

The U.S. has ample crude oil supplies, even if major hurricane destruction trims Gulf oil output and foreign imports, but refining capacity is extraordinarily tight. As a result, prices for gasoline, heating oil, jet fuel and other products have flirted with records and could go even higher this week.

"If this thing knocks out significant quantities of refining capacity ... we're going to be in deep, dark trouble," said Ed Silliere, vice president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York.

The market has been on edge for months, with traders and speculators buying on the slightest fear. With Katrina, all those fears could be realized, Beutel said.

"Basically I could spill a can of oil at my local gas station and you'd see the price of crude go up by $1 per barrel," he said.

Crude settled at $66.13 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $1.36 after hitting $68 last week.

In many ways, Katrina was expected to be inconsequential to the energy industry, with many traders selling on Friday as the storm moved across Florida and was seen as moving north and striking the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm with little impact. That all changed Saturday, when the system gained power and charged west, directly into areas of offshore oil production.

ChevronTexaco Corp. completed evacuations of all workers in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico and nonessential workers in the western Gulf late Saturday, company spokesman Matt Carmichael said.

Chevron has about 2,100 employees and contractors working in the Gulf, Carmichael said. Chevron will continue to produce 90 percent of its normal production by remote as long as weather cooperates, he said.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which processes loads from tankers too large for mainland ports, evacuated all workers and stopped unloading ships on Saturday morning said Mark Bugg, the terminal's manager of scheduling. The LOOP, 20 miles offshore, is the nation's largest oil import terminal and handles 11 percent of U.S. oil imports.

Royal Dutch-Shell Group evacuated more than 1,000 offshore workers by Saturday. Only those in the far west remained, the company said on its Web site. BP PLC and ExxonMobil Corp. also brought workers ashore Saturday.

Shell estimated 420,000 barrels of oil and 1.35 million cubic feet of gas per day will be shut in at its central and eastern Gulf facilities. Exxon Mobil said it has ceased daily production of 3,000 barrels of oil and 50 million cubic feet of gas.

Valero Energy Corp. evacuated all but a few workers at its 260,000-barrel-a-day St. Charles refinery on Saturday. Murphy Oil Corp. also shut down its 120,000-barrel-a-day Meraux, La., refinery, and Exxon Mobil Corp. planned to shut down its 183,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Chalmette, La.

Motiva Enterprises, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell PLC and state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., began implementing hurricane contingency plans at its 225,000-barrel-a-day Norco refinery on Saturday. Motiva also was exploring contingencies for its 235,000-barrel-a-day Convent refinery, about 45 miles west of New Orleans, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
 
Last edited:
Top