Just looking for advice

[Cthulhu]

I know there is no magical answer for this question, but everyone here should have a somewhat informed opinion…

How long do you think it will be before we see solid hiring at the big guys and decent upward movement?

By big guys I mean any of the larger airlines and even large companies such as Fractionals as NetJets.

I realize I’m fortunate to have a job and I thank my lucky stars every day, but I really cannot look forward to settling down, buying a house, starting a family on my salary and it causes one to begin to think.

What if this goes on for another 2 or 4 years, what if it goes on for that long with compounding layoffs and continual furloughs? When will it get so bad that their will be little to no hope of enough upward movement in our career to ensure that I will have a good shot at a seat at JB or SWA?

What do I tell the soon-to-be wife about salary prospects?

I guess I’m just kind of glum that’s all and just want to chat a bit about industry stuff, someone offer me a ray of sunshine maybe.

 

[wickedpilot]

How long do you think it will be before we see solid hiring at the big guys and decent upward movement?

I broke my crystal ball a few weeks back. Guess we'll just to wait it out.
(these questions have been hashed and re-hashed. Just flip back through old threads. you might not find the sunshine you're looking for but there are definatley many forecasts.)

 

[FSB99]

in general, every 10 years, the snit hits the fan. early 80s deregulation.. early 90s recession... 2001, etc.
i wouldn't expect to ever see explosive growth, like we saw in the late 90s. however, within 3 or 4 years, we should see things growing steadily.. and another downturn around 2010.
a wise old man once told me, "there's no such thing as a CAREER in aviation."

 

[infoman]

Future?

Let the future take care of itself.

What you need to do as a pilot is network, ask questions, and most of all fly. The fat log book, with current experience, will put you at the front of the line when the hiring starts.

The person that really wants this career will find a way.

Keep Flying!

 

[C601]

Future

Cthulhu,

Its a good Q, and its one i ask myself everyday, but the truth of the matter is no one knows. Just think of it like flying through a big nasty storm with your weather radar gone Kaput, your hoping to be out of it soon, but when it comes down to it you have no clue and just got to ride it out.

"every 10 years, the snit hits the fan. early 80s deregulation.. early 90s recession..."

Sure but throw 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Enron into the mix etc...

And you but yourself in a whole new world.

Like you said just thank your lucky stars your still flying and rememeber if your soon-be-wife, remind her she married you for better or for worse.

I wish you all clear skies

C601

 

[bobbysamd]

Historical perspective - or, as they say, history repeats itself

I am a (failed) aviation child of the '80s, so let me provide a then-and-now perspective. Maybe it will answer your questions.

A hiring boom began in about 1986. I won't go into all the reasons why, but suffice it to say that the economy had picked up and the majors were hiring like crazy. That drove hiring at the lower levels. The boom continued until about 1990, when the economy started to weaken. Mr. Hussein started to rattle his sword in about August of that year. I remember it well because my first regional interview took place two days later. Fast-forward a few months, and George Bush went to war with Iraq. Eastern and Pan Am, among others, went in the toilet, putting tons of qualified pilots on the streets. There was some regional hiring, but, by and large, it became hard, if not impossible, to build a a career. As I recall history, things started to improve a little by late 1994. I don't recall it that well because I was out of aviation by that time. In any event, we had massive hirings during the remainder of the '90s.

The current recession began in 2000. Remember the stock market's undulations that year? At the end of the year energy prices went through the ceiling, especially electricity. Perhaps we can thank Enron for that. The economy was getting worse but aviation was on the tail end. Thing really were worsening during 2001, but few people really felt the effects - until 911. Fast-forward a few months and George Bush went to war against Iraq. In the meantime, United and U went Chapter 11, and they and other majors furloughed thousands of pilots, effectively putting them on the street. There has been some hiring at the regionals and by the LCCs, but, by and large, it is tough to build a career right now, in 2003.

See the pattern? I dare not go out on a limb, but, if history repeats itself, things might pick up sometime next year. A lot depends on United's and U's bankruptcies, or if American joins them.

From looking at your quals, I think that you will be well-positioned as long as you can continue to build experience. But realize that you must wait in line for the furloughees to be recalled. So, your chance may not come for a few years. Moreover, the regionals could very well be your final stop, if airline flying is your goal. That may not be so bad; someone told me sometime back that senior Comair captains make $90K+. You could do worse for yourself.

Good luck with your plans, aviation and otherwise.

 

[Kaman]

Hello,
I feel very fortunate to have a flying job, albeit keeping student pilots from trying to overstress the landing gear I am of the school of thought now that it's a waste of time and mental anguish to fret over the economic situation of the airlines, wartime woes and their effect on aviation, etc...ad nauseum. The gentleman in an earlier post said it so well, "Just fly". So, thats what I'm doing. Networking here and there where I can. Getting to know people and vice versa.
One theory that I have is that the substantial drop in new pilot training starts and demise of professional flight training programs will create a "shortage". Not necessarily of well-qualified airline type folks. But at a lower level, such as instructors, /91/135 air taxi and cargo operators
I'm enjoying the flight instructing thing for the most part. Although, I'm having a helluva time dialing down my military-style personality and approach to flying. I'm very big on procedure, knowing your "numbers" and being well-prepared for each training event. This is not often the case with some of my students and it is very frustrating. I am finding it difficult to adopt an attitude of indiffernce toward thier lack of motivation to learn by beinf prepared. I suppose this is where some of that "FOI" stuff comes in handy.
Sorry for digressing on this thread, but if any of you more veteran CFI's have any advice for an old dog trying to learn new tricks I'd appreciate it.

Regards,

ex-Navy Rotorhead

P.S. Here is an outstanding quote, "Superior preparation on the ground is paramount to improvization in the air" unk., USAF Flight training docrine publication. I read it in AOPA Pilot