Jump in Air Fares?

[dispatchguy]

But what no one knows will there be more empty seats that could have made an additional $189?

But, assuming that a butt in the seat costs 375 to put there, then how is putting a butt in the seat at 189 a good thing???

 

[lineflyer1]

You are missing the point, that 60% LF will be on fewer flights because there will fewer passengers, fewer flights means fewer A/C, fewer capts, and fewer pilots. The question is, will the airlines be better off with an empty seat, or $189 to put a bottom in that empty seat. It my be that smaller airline industry will be more profitable, but who will be the first to give up market share for the good of the industry.

Bankruptcy courts will decide who gives up market share. For too long airlines have been undercutting each other hoping some of the others don't have enough cash to win the fight.

While grandma may not go if it costs more, there are people who currently pay $189 that will go even if it costs more. For too long the airlines have been underpricing their product. You can get an airline ticket for the price of a Greyhound ticket.

 

[IAHERJ]

We need to re-regulate the industry. There is another start up supposedly in EWR flying to a few small cities with 737's. This is SkyBus part II and this airline is yet another unnecessary airline. We should not be allowing new carriers in this already oversaturated industry. We need about 3 Global airlines with 2 LCC and about 10 regional carriers in this country. I know, I know, that means another round of mergers etc.(which will negatively affect me), but I think it will stabalize the industry in the long run.

 

[dispatchguy]

Pay the costs to cover the transportation - its not that difficult. Cant pay that much fine, I am sure someone else (Amtrak, Greyhound) can for that cheap.

Would u fly in an airplane as well maintained as the average car on the road? Hopefully not, airplanes arent cheap, and you need to pay a fare that covers the costs involved.

 

[tomgoodman]

Law of unintended consequences

The question is, will the airlines be better off with an empty seat, or $189 to put a bottom in that empty seat.

If the only effect of a cheap fare were that an otherwise-empty seat would be filled, it makes sense. But all customers become aware of the existence of cheap fares, and many of those previously willing to pay more now become unwilling. Sensing a chance to increase market share, some carrier offers more of the cheap seats. Refusing to yield market share, the original carrier matches or exceeds this, and so on...
The problem is that when you attempt to change the behavior of a few people, you end up changing the behavior of a lot of people.

 

[pilotyip]

Empty seat = no money from a perishable asset

But, assuming that a butt in the seat costs 375 to put there, then how is putting a butt in the seat at 189 a good thing???

Filling the seat at $189 is a good thing if the seat would remain empty. It is $189 the airline would not have. Grandma has budgeted $2400 to travel to ABQ, at $189 per seat she fills a seat 12 times, at $400 she fills it 6 times. There are many people who react like grandma. Time will tell if the seat remains empty or is filled with a $400 fare. Consumer demand for seat is marginally elastic. I am betting higher fares fewer seats filled. BTW I am not saying it is right or wrong only that things will change and perhaps not for the better. Adam Smith, smart dude from the 1780’s worte "Wealth of Nations" said any change in pricing will effect the marketplace.
Flash news Grandma just bought a RT ticket on Frontier DTW-ABQ for $219, guess she will be flying Frontier all the time now, marketplace in action.

 

[ualdriver]

There are many people who react like grandma. Time will tell if the seat remains empty or is filled with a $400 fare. Consumer demand for seat is marginally elastic. I am betting higher fares fewer seats filled.

Flash news Grandma just bought a RT ticket on Frontier DTW-ABQ for $219, guess she will be flying Frontier all the time now, marketplace in action.

I hope Frontier is still there to fly Grandma when she travels. It seems that they have had a little trouble finding exit financing and just recently received an extension from the bankruptcy court. I trust you put that fare on your credit card?

Regardless, I don't think the seat will remain empty. Rather, the seat will simply no longer exist. On the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website, they state that ASM's year over year for FEB '09 show a decline of around 10% which roughly matches the drop off in traffic- this would keep LF's roughly the same. So it seems Grandma doesn't want to buy $400 tickets, and good thing because her $200 seat theoretically doesn't exist anymore!

 

[pilotyip]

see above

So it seems Grandma doesn't want to buy $400 tickets, and good thing because her $200 seat theoretically doesn't exist anymore!

Grandma will still buy tickets @ $400 but just fewer of them

 

[dispatchguy]

Flash news Grandma just bought a RT ticket on Frontier DTW-ABQ for $219, guess she will be flying Frontier all the time now, marketplace in action.

Then I guess the dude that writes fares at Frontier is an idiot, or their costs are so ridiculously low that the 219 still covers their costs, while providing a small profit on that seat.

But I still ask, if it costs me 375 to put a butt on a seat in fuel, crew salaries, maintenance costs, etc, then why should I give it to you for 189?? Why is my losing $186 on that seat a good thing? I still fail to see how my loss is a good thing for me??? Even if it costs 250 for me to put a butt on that seat, any seat, then why would my selling it to you, or anyone, for less than that be good? How is my selling that seat below my costs to produce the seat be good for my airline????

Yes, the fare structure is screwed up; always has been. HOWEVER, airlines need to price their product at a price which provides an economic incentive for there to be a seat in the future. You want to travel by air, fine. Then, you need to pay an airfare that completely covers the costs involved in providing the transportation. Grandmas effective yield needs to cover all of the costs involved. Increased load factors are nice, but the effective YIELD those LFs provide is much more important to an air carriers bottomline.

At her 219 RT, I doubt the effective yield will be enough to cover the costs involved, and itll be another loss to the airline. They wouldve been better off without her.

 

[ualdriver]

Then I guess the dude that writes fares at Frontier is an idiot, or their costs are so ridiculously low that the 219 still covers their costs, while providing a small profit on that seat.

But I still ask, if it costs me 375 to put a butt on a seat in fuel, crew salaries, maintenance costs, etc, then why should I give it to you for 189??

Nah, I doubt it's covering their costs. They're in bankruptcy and they need cash NOW so that they can exit bankruptcy. Then they can worry about the seats they sold below cost LATER. That's why you have seen some airlines that are "circling the bowl" offer ridiculous fare sales. Sometimes they just need cash NOW at any cost in order to get over some sort of short term financial hurdle (a loan covenant, for example) so that they can live LATER to fight another day.

I think the logic for selling a seat "below cost" comes from the practice of an airline trying to cover most of their flight's cost with premium passengers who are paying, on average, well above their "fair share" because they purchased a first class seat or purchased their ticket closer to departure time. If you have enough of those types of passengers, you can charge whatever you want for the balance of the available seats on your airplane and it's all gravy no matter what the airline charges because your premium passengers have paid for the flight already. I think, however, since the early 2000's and the rapid growth and public acceptance of LCC's, fewer and fewer of those premium passengers exist which makes it harder for an airline (like United, for example) to offer many seats that are "below cost" because premium passengers are fewer in number AND are paying less of a premium in the first place.

Airlines like UAL, AMR, DAL, etc., will never be able to match the costs of a JetBlue or Virgin America or AirTran. However, they hope they can capture a disproportionate share of premium passengers so that those passengers can help subsidize the seats they have to sell at JetBlue prices in order to compete with them.

 

[pilotyip]

I guess the price increase did not work everyone dropped their prices after one week. I notice that SWA now has open seats on Tues and Wed all the way through October at $159, down $40 from last week. I bet they say a big drop off in bookings and elected cheap filled seats were better than empty seat with no revenue. Read "Hard Landing" and how Crandall came up with yield management.

 

[ualdriver]

I guess the price increase did not work everyone dropped their prices after one week. I notice that SWA now has open seats on Tues and Wed all the way through October at $159, down $40 from last week. I bet they say a big drop off in bookings and elected cheap filled seats were better than empty seat with no revenue. Read "Hard Landing" and how Crandall came up with yield management.

Yeah, familiar with Hard Landings. I read it twice. Every airline pilot should read it. It's one of my favorite books of all time.

According to the SWA website, their "wanna get away" fares are $159 each way, but after adding all the fees it's still $355 round trip. Still not the $187 RT from post 1 that you're looking for, huh? Sign onto kayak.com and look at the calendar that pops up after you type in your departure and arrival cities. Looks like there are fares to be had if grandma's travel dates are flexible, but none less than $303.

 

[pilotyip]

stay tuned

Yeah, familiar with Hard Landings. I read it twice. Every airline pilot should read it. It's one of my favorite books of all time.

According to the SWA website, their "wanna get away" fares are $159 each way, but after adding all the fees it's still $355 round trip. Still not the $187 RT from post 1 that you're looking for, huh? Sign onto kayak.com and look at the calendar that pops up after you type in your departure and arrival cities. Looks like there are fares to be had if grandma's travel dates are flexible, but none less than $303.

It has only been a week, stayed tuned.

 

[relief tube]

nope....they still be low. Friends and family are still bragging how theyre getting sub-$150 roundtrip NONSTOP flights from their mid-sized new england and midwest cities to florida on Airtran. I gotta tell them how much I dislike airtran and to at least lie to me and say it's on delta.

 

[pilotyip]

Well I see SWA has again dropped their advance tickets prices to $119 DTW to ABQ. Looks like the higher priced tickets were leaving too many empty seats. They are just about the cheapest fare that I can find for booking more than 30 days in advance.