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Judge Rejects U.S. A. Pension Request

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FDJ2

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Judge Rejects U.S. Airways Pension Request
Tuesday December 30, 4:09 pm ET
By John Crawley


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A judge has upheld a $2.1 billion government claim against US Airways (NasdaqNM:UAIR - News), rejecting the airline's bid to reduce its huge liability for a pilots retirement plan that was terminated this year.
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The decision Monday evening by Judge Stephen Mitchell of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Virginia does not mean that the underfunded plan will be made whole. But it could stem overall losses for the aviators, although they are likely to gain only pennies on the dollar.

It will also narrow options for airlines and companies in other industries for reducing huge shortfalls in their employee retirement accounts.

US Airways terminated its pilots pension account in March, saying it could not afford it and could not emerge from bankruptcy without doing so.

The company then created a cheaper plan for current pilots and turned over the balance of the terminated account to the federal agency responsible for insuring corporate pensions, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

It is the responsibility of the PBGC, which is struggling with its own financial problems, to determine the amount of the old plan, identify existing assets and seek additional assets as an unsecured creditor.

The PBGC claims the terminated plan was worth more than $3.3 billion. Roughly $1.2 billion of that represents undisputed assets held by the plan when it was terminated. The remaining $2.1 billion represents the PBGC's claim of what the airline should contribute to resolve its liability.

But US Airways contends the method for calculating the liability is flawed because it relies on a discount interest rate often tied to conservative insurance annuities, which at the time the deficit was computed, was 5.1 percent.

The airline sought Mitchell's approval to use a higher rate -- 8 percent - that would tie assumptions for pension fund gains to the broader performance of markets.

Because it is assumed that investments at a higher rate would return more over time, the company's contribution would go down. At 8 percent, US Airways said the underfunded amount of the pilots' plan would be roughly $900 million, less than half of what the PBGC estimates it owes.

Steven Kandarian, executive director of the pension benefit agency, said the judge's ruling makes it clear that companies cannot use certain assumptions to "artificially slash" pension underfunding and "escape" their obligation.

"As an unsecured creditor, PBGC can only hope to recover pennies on the dollar for a plan's unfunded benefit liabilities, but those pennies add up," Kandarian said.

US Airways said it was disappointed with Mitchell's decision and would weigh its appeal options. But it also noted the ruling does not create additional financial hardship because any payout would be in stock already allotted to a pool for creditors.

In this case, the payout in stock will wind up being a fraction of what the government says is owed.

Nevertheless, the decision is important for how companies can calculate employee pensions, which in a number of industries are a source of deepening concern. Underfunded accounts are weighing down many well-known and mostly older companies, such as bankrupt United Airlines (OTC BB:UALAQ.OB - News), which has unsuccessfully pushed Congress to change pension funding rules.
 
That will be interesting for USAir and United especially, but also tough on other Majors as well. I bet United's management will be working hard to persuade Congress to pass a bill requiring the change of the 30 year treasury bill to something more current--something that will help them not to have to pay it all at once.

Here's the quote from the article:

"But US Airways contends the method for calculating the liability is flawed because it relies on a discount interest rate often tied to conservative insurance annuities, which at the time the deficit was computed, was 5.1 percent."


If that doesn't happen, I see a quick firesale on the way at UAL and USAir---selling Asian routes etc, for cash.(from UAL) It really will be interesting. The rising stockmarket does help those who can pay the bills, but those who have not paid their yearly minimums because they were in Chap 11 really will be hit hard.

Bye Bye--General Lee:rolleyes:
 
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Gen Lee,
I don't think you understand what the effect of the ruling is. The Judge, in allowing the PBGC to use VERY conservative pension estimates (low ROR, low interest rate), only gave the PBGC a higher "unsecured" claim against pre BK exist U. In simplistic terms, when a company exists BK, they divide the 'new stock' up among the unsecured creditors based on how much each creditor was owed. The PBGC will now have a MUCH higher claim on post BK equity at U. How does this affect UAL? It likely INCREASES the chance that he pension plans will emerge intact. Here's why: The unsecured creditors commitee is the group really running the show (tempered by the judge). UAL's management must pass pretty much everything past them. Their interest is in having the company come out of BK with the best chance to make big bucks (low costs) so that the stock will rise, AND that they each get as large a share of that equity as possible. What the judge did was say, "if you terminate the pensions, the PBGC will expect a HUGE piece of the pie". So now they must decide if the positive effect of lowering cost by terminating the pensions is worth the negative effect of lower moral, labor strife AND now having to share the companies equity with the PBGC. I'd think it would make them much more likely to support pension retention
 
Gen Lee,
Just a few pension numbers for you. As of sept 30 2002, DAL's pensions were underfunded to the tune of 4.9 billion. The interesting part is in the assumptions used to get to that number. DAL used a discount rate of 6.75%. each .5% reduction in the discount rate increases the pension liability by appro $800 MILLION. According to UAL's 10k's, they are currently using 6%. That diff alone, increases DAL's obligation (and deficit) by $1.2 BILLION. Additionally, DAL assumes annual salary increases at 2.67% (down from 4.67% in 2001 and 5.35% in 200). The much lower number artifiically decrease obligation. UAL, despite no pay raises for the foreseable future assumes 3.3%. Using the PBGC's 5.1% discount rate would bump the DAL obligation up another 1.5 BILLION. So when you see the PBGC making comments about the level of pension funding at UAL or U, keep in mind that by their standards DAL would be looking at a deficit of AT LEAST $7.5 BILLION.
 
whats funny is a bet the us airways plan is FUNDED on an 8% interest rate assumption (the plans sponsor can select the funding assumption). this is just a case of bad timing for two key factors:

poor stock market - ie poor pension asset performance

low interest rates - drives the liabilities up


the airline industry isn't alone in this. most major pensions want to reform the pbgc and minimum funding calculations because the govt stipulates the use of "lower" interest rates.


Gen, etc pilots of delta. Do you guys use GATT rates for lump sum calculations on your delta benefits? Did you know that the GATT rate is "made up" each month?
 
Citationlover,

Yes, we use the GATT rate for lump sum calculations, and the lower the interest rate, the higher the lump sum payout. Interest rates started to slowly rise in OCT, so with a 1 month look back, about 281 of our Capts left on Sept 1st.

T-bags,

The good thing is that Delta has been paying the minimum amount for the pension obligations each year, whereas UAL and USAir did NOT. As the stockmarket gets better and interest rates rise, those pension gaps get smaller. As long as we pay the minimum each year, we are fine. The main reason we had such a large gap is because a lot of our pension funds were invested in the stockmarket (mutial funds etc)--and as they sank--our gap widened. But, as the stockmarket rises---the gap now gets narrower. I don't know where you are getting the "salary increases"---we all have either taken cuts or will soon. If the economy continues to grow and interest rates rise (at the second half of next year--or this year now--2004), then this problem will get smaller. The problem with UAL is that they have delayed payments--and now they will all be due soon. I believe it will amount to close to $2 billion for 2004 alone. That is not good.

Bye Bye--General Lee:rolleyes:
 
Gen Lee,
you'd best check with R&I guys. I don't think you have an accurate picture of your pension position vs U and UAL.

I admittedly don't have info on FY2003 contributions to DALs defined benefit plans but heres some DAL vs UAL tidbits from 2001 and 2002

company contributions to DB plans
2001: DAL 50 million, UAL 43 million
2002: DAL 77 million, UAL 50 million

pension obligation for both companies at the end of 2000 stood at approx 9.2 billion. DAL assumed a higher (one of the highest in the industry) ROR (10% vs 9.5-9.75% for UAL, AMR, ect), despite similar asset allocation. This is relevant because UAL now has a higher pension obligation on it's books simply because in BK they are using more conservative assumptions.

from DAL cash flow statement:
pension costs that were NOT put into the pension plan:
2001: 419 MILLION
2002: 177 MILLION

At the end of 2002, total assets of DALs pension plans was 6.7 billion vs 6.3 billion at UAL. because of UA's pending BK in 2002, "EARLY retirement" run on the bank likely occured BEFORE DAL's. DAL likely had pension plan drained more in 2003.

When you read that UA must make "catch up" payments in the next five years, realize DAL MUST ALSO. The same rules apply. UAL and DAL were AHEAD on pension payments, so they weren't REQUIRED to make payments this year, either in or out of BK.
 
t-bags,

did u get the ror assumption from the annual statement? if so, it has nothing to do with the funding of the plan. it is simply used to calculate an expected return on assets used in the expense calculation (fas 87 - the income/expense item listed in the annual statement).

it's funny that pensions rise and fall with a made up 30yr treasury rate that is extrapolated off a 15yr note. do you guys have to take a lump sum? how is it reduced if you retire early?
 
"did u get the ror assumption from the annual statement? if so, it has nothing to do with the funding of the plan. it is simply used to calculate an expected return on assets used in the expense calculation"

It does affect the amount the company contributes in a given year. I think a 1/2% change in the expected ROR changes the required annual contribution by approx 50 million. Diff between the actual and expected ROR shows itself in the diff between the actuarial funding level vs actual funding level. For example, had DAL acheived it's "expected" 10% ror, it would only be underfunded by 3/4 of a billion. but you are correct, my information re pension funding assumptions came directly from the annual statements and from more recent filings by UAL. I'm no expert, but I think all the airlines must use a very similar number for the discount rate (last I checked it was 6%), and to some extent, even with the re-issue of the 30 year tbill, an extrapolated assumption based on the 10 year note may be more appropriate due to the higher price/ lower yield of the 30 year due to it's "scarcity".

I don't think there is a requirement at any of the A-fund airlines to take a lump sum distribution. There are major diff's, however, in the size of allowable lump sum payouts, should you chose to get some up front. It's my understanding that DAL, U, and AMR allow larger lump sum distributions than UAL. I'm have no idea in the case of NWA, Fed Ex, UPS, and Alaska.
 
this is kinda technical, but if you guys dig pensions (that is sick) you will learn. hopefully this makes sense.

the funding side of pensions (how much money goes into them) is based on assumptions set by the sponsor (company). it is usually based on an interest rate that is, in theory, what the company expects the assets to do in the long term. it is usually 7-8% and is consistent and rarely changes as it is a long-term assumption. funding is governed by the IRC Section 412.

the government has a minimum funding requirement of 90% of the plan's "current" liability, which is a govt assumption mandated liability (ie it uses the govt's assumptions). this rate has been dropping for awhile and is the primary concern most articles are written about today, since businesses have been needing to fund at this level. the govt interest rate is based on 30yr treasury notes (the lovely GATT rates) however it is averaged over a 4 year period for "smoothness".

the expense side (what gets put on the annual statement) is based on market assumptions and the actuaries work with the sponsor and auditor on acceptable assumptions. the discount rate (note the subtle difference in terminology) is usually a function of corporate bond rates (moody's aa) or something similar. this rate changes every year based on what the market is doing. the expense side also has an expected return on assets assumption that represents the expected long-term assumption of the assets. expense is governed by FAS 87 (accounting statement #87).

a lot of articles about pensions by reporters (even business reporters) are flat out wrong, just like when they report aviation crashes/incidents. they constantly mix these different terminologies up. the pbgc used to publish it's top 50 list (a list of the 50 most underfunded pensions - ie thus the most likely to fail). i dunno if they still do that. but it was a good indicator of the "health" of the plan.

and to think i gave up this exciting life to fly airplanes?!?! :eek:
 
CL,
Thanks for clearing up the the methodology behind the discount rate. The "4 year average" would, in addition to theoretically preventing massive changes in the year to year pension obligation, cause a "lag" effect going into AND coming out of a low interest rate enviroment. Theoretically, the 30 year time horizon of the t-bill would have the same effect WITHOUT the 4 year average, but that assumes perfect information.... and current rates would undoubtedly yield even bigger pension deficits (I'm guessing the PBGC rate uses an unaveraged 30 year rate if it's at 5.1%)

You'll see, if you check the annual reports, that the airlines have traditionally (at leat in the late 90's) used 9.5-10% ROR assumptions.

Since you appear to be an accountant (econ and finance for me), what is your opinion of the validity of companies not either expensing expected future average mx costs or amortising the value of the warenty with respect to new equipment. With a company that has a "balanced" fleet age, it would be self correcting, but seems to me the lack of methodology would lead to "misleading" results when a company has an entirely new fleet.
 
Since you appear to be an accountant (econ and finance for me), what is your opinion of the validity of companies not either expensing expected future average mx costs or amortising the value of the warenty with respect to new equipment. With a company that has a "balanced" fleet age, it would be self correcting, but seems to me the lack of methodology would lead to "misleading" results when a company has an entirely new fleet.

whoa...im an actuary not an accountant i take offense! :D

actually on all the past clients i worked on (both airline and non-airline) 9.5-10.0% was fairly common.

i agree with your opinion though. depreciation to me was always a "fuzzy" way for a company to maximize its assets dollar. i don't quite understand all the nuances though to make an informed decision.

i can tell you though that after 7 years of consulting with senior management, to me they are way too near sighted and just care about the next quarter. it seems corporate america has lost the long term vision it once had and is now just trying to make each quarterly report look golden. the airlines sadly seem to follow the pack.
 

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