JP Morgan says Major Bankruptcies just a matter of "when" not "if"

[Andy]

I wonder why he was so hard on NWA? They have a lot of cash on hand.

He's off the mark on NWA. They're in pretty good shape financially.

 

[slcaviator]

If you think you are going to make a profit in Q2 you must be buying some of SWA's fuel hedges

 

[Lear70]

If you think you are going to make a profit in Q2 you must be buying some of SWA's fuel hedges

It's not us, it's the vast majority of analysts and finance gurus (which I'm not one of and I doubt you are, either); they're all saying pretty much the same thing about airTran - close to break-even or small profit this quarter.

They gave UAir a hard time because of the money they're going to blow trying to make a UAL merger happen and the fact that even though they have quite a bit of cash on hand, they're blowing through it at a pretty steady pace just for daily ops.

It's all relative. If you've got $0.5 Billion in the bank and you're blowing through $250 Million a year, you don't have long until things start getting tight.

Likewise airTran has $500 Million on hand now but is estimating a $100 Million loss for the year unless something changes. Like I said before, airTran is going to have to make some changes if the losses continue to this time next year along this same path, but they have some breathing room left for now.

 

[Superpilot92]

Some "news" numbnut needed to get an article out so they made up some stupid list probably with little to no facts to back it up. NWA has some of the best financials in the industry, there is no question about it. That alone should be enough to discredit this "source".

 

[Lear70]

Some "news" numbnut needed to get an article out so they made up some stupid list probably with little to no facts to back it up. NWA has some of the best financials in the industry, there is no question about it. That alone should be enough to discredit this "source".

Ummm... JP Morgan as a COMPANY press release is a "news numbnut"?

They might have a teensy-weensy little bit of experience calling the market,,, then again, what's a few HUNDRED Billion in an investment bank.

 

[Superpilot92]

Ummm... JP Morgan as a COMPANY press release is a "news numbnut"?

They might have a teensy-weensy little bit of experience calling the market,,, then again, what's a few HUNDRED Billion in an investment bank.

I was calling the author of the article a "news numbnut" not JPMorgan. Putting NWA behind that whole list should be enough to discredit the author. Guess we shall see huh?

 

[McNugget]

Ummm... JP Morgan as a COMPANY press release is a "news numbnut"?

They might have a teensy-weensy little bit of experience calling the market,,, then again, what's a few HUNDRED Billion in an investment bank.

Easy. That's SuperPilot you're talking too. I mean, he/she must be really cool to have a screenname of superpilot.

Every smart person would chose "super" in the screename.

<yes, sarcasm intended>

 

[n757st]

And you're basing this on . . . your rejection letters? Or something your Flight Attendant boyfriend told you on your last layover . . . . because it sure isn't based upon any facts.

We now have $500 million in the bank, we're expecting a small profit in Q2, have the lowest non-fuel CASM of any major airline.

So, have yourself a nice little warm cup of STFU and better luck next time . . . .

PS., A "boarder" is someone who lives in someone else's house and pays rent- you know, kind of like you in your parent's basement . . . . a "border" is a dividing line. . . . . :laugh:

Wow, who pissed in your cheerios this morning. I am sure you are a pleasure to fly with. Do you ever get suspicious that people bid around you? They probably do. I never applied at AirTran not because I don't like the company but rather I have no desire to live in Atlanta. You guys have great pilots (sans you), and sure a low casm... I was just making the statement because I what I had read previously, I guess I forgot about the bonds/stock you guys put out there. Hope you all make it, I was not making a statement of ill will toward your company.

BTW, you like to correct spelling a lot. I am guessing you are a guard nazi too.... huh? Christ, and I thought the skywest fan boys were bad, you bring it to a new level.

 

[Superpilot92]

Easy. That's SuperPilot you're talking too. I mean, he/she must be really cool to have a screenname of superpilot.

Every smart person would chose "super" in the screename.

<yes, sarcasm intended>

Yeah because McNugget is so much better than Superpilot? Superpilot is a screenname on a *gasp* aviation forum, how silly of me.

McNugget is a "super" screename!!

(yes, sarcasm intended)

 

[whymeworry?]

Honestly guys,

Wake up and smell the conspiracy coffee. Jamie Baker and JP Morgan are in bed with mgmt. Who do you think they call when they need to raise capital? Wall Street. Mgmt is telling Baker they are in dire straits to prep us for a massive lowering of expectations. This part of a long-term strategy to reduce costs even further than we would've ever imagined possible in this business.

If JB is so right, what about his reports of 12 mos ago where he was predicting airlines to trade higher? Now that stock prices are down 75% from their highs he wants to come out and downgrade? It's a little too late.

All the legacys can pull down huge amounts of capacity if they need to, and they will if consumers don't pay up for the costs of fuel increases. So far, the passengers aren't balking at higher prices. But indeed it is only natural for demand to subside as prices climb. The only sliver of good news thus far is that point hasn't been reached yet. If oil hits $150-$200 perhaps we'll reach the price-point that cuts demand but the liklihood of it trading to $150 is a hell of a lot less than it trading back down below $100.

Baker is either way too late in making his downgrade recco or he's being manipulated by mgmt to lower all our expectations as we head further into the dark depths of this current crisis.