Jetblue or SWA

[Willie Wonka]

Thanks for all your thoughtful responses to my question. Yes I do really exsist (I don't own a chocolate factory though) and this is a real decision for me. I am with a great company, and although SW is a great company too, I love what I'm doing and my heart is with JetBlue. Thanks again.

 

[ArchieF16]

Let us know what you decide

It sounds like he just did.......

Willie,

Although I would have jumped one whole number in seniority , I think you made the right decision.....if we get all 400 jets we have ordered/options, you're looking at a 3-digit line number at an airline that stands to have 6000+ pilots before all is said and done........

 

[New2Flying]

There are other things to think about. Take a look at benefits. What happens if you go out on medical for a short period of time? Are you paid at both carriers? How long does your insurance last before you are kicked out of the system and have to pay COBRA? It's not just about the seat you are in at which airline, but which one will help you out if you hit some hard luck medically.

Anyone have answers to those questions regarding the short term disability at either JB or SWA?

 

[thruthemurk]

Falconjet,
This is an interesting thread, and a decision that only a very lucky guy has to make...but I have to respond to:

<<You have very little invested in JB and thus aren't going to give up much in seniority. In fact, being at the head of the wave for 04 and 05, you will likely gain seniority quicker at SW. >>

Lets check your math. Southwest currently has at least 4000 pilots (maybe 4500) if they hire 400 a year as advertised you would be #4000+ out of 4800 pilots. This equates to a junior FO. Two years later with the same aggressive hiring you would be #4000 out of 5600 - still very far from a left seat, even if 200 or 300 retire!!

At Jetblue, he is at least 700. In two years he will be 700 out of 1400 - a junior captain if desired. In four years with the current delivery schedule he will be #700 out of 2200 - a line holding captain almost anywhere in the system.

While there may be questions about either company's growth plans - current firm orders show that seniority aquisition at SW does not come close to touching JB.

Just the facts,
murk

 

[Falconjet]

Seniority, take two

thruthemurk: No big argument. Seniority is relative more to the number of people below you than the number ahead of you when you are in the bottom half of the list. Yes, he would probably upgrade quicker at JB, I mentioned that. But, SW will be hiring WAY more pilots in the next couple of years than JB (assuming the economy continues to rebound and the terrorists are kept at bay).

So in 3 years lets say, 500 guys have retired at SW, and another 1000 are hired behind him, he'll be about 3400 out of 5000-5500. (They currently have 4300 pilots I think). So thats a lot of people underneath to boost your quality of life and protect from a furlough.

At JB, say he is a Captain in 3 years and has 700 below him instead of 1600-2000 at SW. Ok, he's a reserve Captain at a nice regional airline, instead of a senior FO at the dominant domestic MAJOR airline with as unlimited a future as is possible given today's realities in the profession. Who's quality of life will be better? That is up to him/her to decide. You can upgrade to Captain quicker at a lot of regionals quicker than SW, because they are smaller. I'd rather take a couple more years and be a Captain at SW than at JB.

I'd go with the proven Major airline over a startup any day. Outside of NY a lot of people have never heard of jetBlue and just because the media can't quit fawning over them doesn't mean they will be the next greatest thing. My hat is off to the jetBlue crowd and I'm happy for them. I was just voicing my opinion to someone asking for some different opinions.

The bottom line is that I think SW will be the dominant carrier in the domestic market in a year or two, and I would take that over ANY other pax carrier right now. I'm still trying to decide whether to take a class date there myself, but that is another thread altogether.

FJ

 

[thruthemurk]

Falconjet,
<<But, you neglected the effect of retirements and the fact that SW will be hiring WAY more pilots in the next couple of years than JB (assuming the economy continues to rebound and the terrorists are kept at bay).

So in 3 years lets say, 500 guys have retired at SW, and another 1000 are hired behind him, he'll be about 3400 out of 5000-5500. (They currently have 4300 pilots I think). So thats a lot of people underneath to boost your quality of life and protect from a furlough. >>

Sorry, I dont agree with your numbers. JB and SW BOTh plan on hiring 400+ in both 2005 and 2006. Secondly, it is not number of pilots you are senior to, it is what percentage of the pilots you are senior to and how strong the company is that provides your job security. At Jetblue 800 numbers puts you halfway up the list; at SW 800 numbers puts you 15% above the bottom of the list. Simple math.

I do agree that relative strength of the companies is unknown.
Is SW actually retiring 500 pilots in the next 3 years or are you guessing?? That would be more than 10% of the pilots there. If so, a definite factor and way above industry norms.

Murk

 

[thruthemurk]

Falconjet,

PS
<I'd go with the proven Major airline over a startup any day.>

People have used this as a reason to not go to SW for 30 of the 33 years that SW has been in business.

murk

 

[enigma]

Re: Re: Re: Jetblue or SWA

SWA is a direct competetor to "legacy" carriers in many markets. They have made fairly easy work of kicking the crap out of them most times.

I guess that I didn't say what I meant to say. Of course SWA does compete directly with the legacys in certain markets. However, SWA route structure and business model are both far different from the legacy carriers structures. On the other hand, JB appears to have the same basic structure as do most of the legacy carriers, but only flys the most profitable city pairs. My point would be this: I believe JB to be more vulnerable to competition from a resurgent legacy structure than would be SW.

regards,
enigma

 

[Falconjet]

Murk: Again, we're not that far off in theory. You say the percentage below is more important, I say it's the number of pilots, ok. The numbers I used were for FedEx, a very similar sized airline to SW (both in number of pilots and jets, and each have been around for about 30 years) for the years 2004-2007. If you only take 04-06, the number would be 360 or so retirements. But through 07 it would be 525. So, having (more than) 10% of the workforce retire over a 4 year period is not all that unusual, given the size of the airline.

Regardless of the numbers, my opinion offered to the thread originator, was that I would rather be a senior FO at SW in 3 to 4 years than a junior Captain (or maybe a mid grade Capt in the E-190) at jB. Its just an opinion, not bashing jB. If you knew the facts in advance you wouldn't need to ask for opinions on this board.

And yes, you are right again that some folks may have gone to a different Major airline over SW in the past because it was a startup. But I doubt too many used that as an argument to go to a regional carrier. Times certainly change, and I'm just offering an opinion on what they might want to do now. Senior FO 1/3 of the way up the list of a dominant, established major; or a junior Captain halfway up a smaller list at a great regional that might be a major soon. Either way, he's going to have a great choice.

You jB guys really are way too sensitive about anything posted that isn't a ringing endorsement of jB. I think you guys are taking the NY media hype way too seriously and letting it cloud your opinions of yourself and your company. Again, that is just an opinion, not a fact.

Best of luck to all of you blue Dudes.

FJ

 

[thruthemurk]

Falconjet,

<<You jB guys really are way too sensitive about anything posted that isn't a ringing endorsement of jB. >>

I am not sure where you came up with this from my posts - maybe you have a preconceived notion.

My original post was in response to your statement:

<< In fact, being at the head of the wave for 04 and 05, you will likely gain seniority quicker at SW. >>

This is actually not true and I felt compelled to respond. This post might reflect the opinion of someone wearing orange glasses rather than an objective viewpoint.

You have now changed your position to a more reasonable one: less seniority at SW is better than more at JB. This could well be true. None of us has the proverbial crystal ball and while I do not personally agree with you, it is at least obvious that this is a debatable point.


Be assured I was not attacking SW, they have been and will be a great airline. Whatever the case though, the time to upgrade will continue to stretch out as the pilot ranks swell, so quick time to left seat is no longer one of the many incentives to go to work there.

PS I don't think numbers or percentages are a furlough protectant, I had 2200 numbers and 20% of the seniority list below me at my last major airline and neither made for job protection.

In my 4th go at this I have been very lucky to remain employed at excellent carriers, but my observations are based on what I have seen and experienced, not the flavor of my koolaid.

Fraternally,
murk