Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[Lear70]

People are already changing their habits.

SUV and truck sales are down by over 60%. One of the major manufacturers just completely just down their truck and SUV line for the rest of the year and is retooling for smaller vehicles.

It's just a matter of time, and I don't believe gas prices will retreat anywhere less than $3.50 a gallon, nor will oil go much below $100 a brl once the bubble bursts.

Put a c-note on it?

 

[Skank]

1. There is plenty of oil. Brazil has seveal offshore fields that will come on line in 2010.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2144574420080521

2. North sea discoveries. The higher prices go, the more oil we will find.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20080522005490&newsLang=en

3. As for domestic oil, http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1395678/opening_up_oil_drilling_makes_sense/

I'm not even going to bring up ANWR.

Our government is to blame for our current state of affairs. They pander to the Eco-terrorist, environmental wacko's. In 1996, Bill Clinton veto'd the ANWR drilling proposal claiming that it would take 10 years to get the oil to market. Well, we may not be in this situation had our politicians (on both sides of the isle) used some commons sence.

We have to start somewhere, take that first step. If it is going to take 3 months, 3 years, or even 10 years to get the iol to market, we have to get started now.

If we focus on where to find oil, rather than not using oil, things will never change. We haven't spent much on an alternative to oil, even though our entire economy runs on it. Not smart. Drilling in Alaska will not save our bacon, and it wouldn't have 10 years ago.

 

[Lear70]

The flightinfo server sucks, won't refresh, won't reload, and you have no idea when you're posting multiple times or not.

Wonder why they can't get a real server with as much money as they make from all this advertising?

 

[jetflyer]

Negative Prist,
I'd love to know who you flew that predicted $10-$12/gallon in two years?
Tertzakian? Hirsch?

I know the author of the study on peak oil for the Department of Energy is now saying those in the know are predicting $12-15/gallon in the next couple years.

PCL,
The tipping point is not even close. We in the U.S. have reduced our usage 1%. What's it going to take to reduce the usage 5%? 10%? 20%? Unfortunately we're going to find out the answer to 20% demand destruction in the next 5-10 years in my opinion because the oil simply won't be there in the quantities desired.

One of the main problems right now? The Oil exporters are using more of their oil and exporting less. That screws the importers like the U.S.A.

The governments of many countries also absorb the cost of oil and don't pass it on to their people. China does this. The government subsidizes the oil price so much that it's going to be hard to get demand destruction there.

Even Mexico is not supposed to be exporting oil in 10 years because their fields are in such bad decline(Cantarell especially).

Mexico not being an exporter alone would take 3 ANWR's off the world market in 10 years.....

Jet

 

[JetFumes]

Why doesn't anyone talk about the need to drill more AND conserve more. We need to drill more and also conserve, plus switch to alternatives all at the same time, if we are to preserve our future.

 

[jetflyer]

Jetfumes,

Good point. Matthew Simmons says the greatest way to help with this problem is conservation. He says that's the best oil field one could ever find....

Trains for transport of goods will help with this a lot. So will cutting back on driving and smaller/hybrid/electric cars.

Oh yea and using less plastic/carpet/paint/etc....

 

[Dizel8]

It would be nice if the goverment supported buying more hybrids with great tax incentives, ie, take away the sales tax on them, give tax rebates etc, etc. They could even allow the owner to write of the interest on the loan, just like we do with mortgages.

There were tax incentives on hybrids, but I think they expired and they were less than on a 6K truck. Plus, I think in many cases, the tax incentive didn't cover the higher cost of the hybrid.

Here is an article about the 6K lbs+ tax incentive, not sure if the rpogram still exist:
For 2002, a qualified buyer can take an immediate deduction of $24,000.
:http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/104601_hummer17.shtml
"


Looked at a few hybrids and what I found very interesting, is that many are only available in a few states.

 

[Lear70]

It would be nice if the goverment supported buying more hybrids with great tax incentives, ie, take away the sales tax on them, give tax rebates etc, etc. They could even allow the owner to write of the interest on the loan, just like we do with mortgages.

There were tax incentives on hybrids, but I think they expired and they were less than on a 6K truck. Plus, I think in many cases, the tax incentive didn't cover the higher cost of the hybrid.

Here is an article about the 6K lbs+ tax incentive, not sure if the rpogram still exist:
For 2002, a qualified buyer can take an immediate deduction of $24,000.
:http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/104601_hummer17.shtml
"


Looked at a few hybrids and what I found very interesting, is that many are only available in a few states.

Good post!

For me, I would be happy if there were a 4x4 crew cab truck that was a hybrid with better than 18 mpg fuel efficiency, able to use the gas engine for the torque when pulling a load, but when roaming around town daily, could benefit from the hybrid gas/electric savings.

Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be one with enough torque to pull my boat AND get 25-30+ mpg when not towing anything, which sucks, and even if there was, it would be so expensive so as to offset any fuel savings you'd get from having a hybrid.

The tax credit equal to the price inflation is a great idea; we should all write our Senators and Congressmen. Seriously.

 

[PCL_128]

PCL,
The tipping point is not even close.

I think you're wrong. I think there's a psychological barrier at $5/gallon for most Americans and you'll see consumption take a dive once we reach that level. Time will tell, however, since I think $5/gallon is likely within the next year thanks to ridiculous speculators.

 

[Two Feathers]

I think there's a psychological barrier at $5/gallon for most Americans...

That might be true for most Americans, even though I bet it will be a higher number. What's becoming more and more appearant though is that it is no longer American demand alone setting the market price. The rest of the world is gobbling the stuff up at exponetially increasing rates and many of those nations have the money to stay in the bid-up with us. Even a major weakening of demand in the USA may not necessarily lower oil prices significantly.

As far as the price of gasoline, consider that Londoners pay something to the tune of $9/gal and seem to get along just fine. Energy costs have been very highly subsidised in the USA for a very long time. Most of our development and planning has been made with cheap energy as a fixture in our future vision. I feel reality is going to hit hard!