Is Delta Hiring?

[Dan Roman]

Oys

Moving back and forth between equipment sounds great. Now is there a cost associated with this to the company? What's that? You don't care?.... Your entitled?.....Figures. I guess you didn't learn anything at United.....or maybe you did,hence your entitlement attitude.

Your Avatar couldn't be more spot on. Now as an all-knowing new-hire, could you comment on my Delta buds major concern with your managements drive to Codeshare with other international airlines and domestic regionals. They all got hired in the mid to late 80's so what do they know? But they keep using the term "Virtual Airline" to describe Delta. Is that true?

Wasn't SWA's plan to expand internationally by using a Canadian and a Mexican airline to do the flying?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Well Mr. Burns is planning 5 training events in five years. Just as well. Keeps him off the line. The Instructors at Mecca will start having to draw straws though.

Bracketing pay takes away one of the incentives. What I see here at DAL is guys bidding for QOL, not pay, and not matter what you do to pay, people are going to bid for that.

I suspect we will have pilots sitting out bid due to the massive retirements. No one will want to get locked in to a seat for two years, so you will see some crazy awards going on in about five years.

 

[Sacha]

Wasn't SWA's plan to expand internationally by using a Canadian and a Mexican airline to do the flying?

Yes. What happened to that? Any ideas?

We didn't think too much about that and let GK know about it without too much fuss.

A group of friends went to Alaska in June for some fishing. We were going to buy full fare on Delta since some of the guys were Delta but strangely we ended up on an Alaska airlines aircraft. Not many Delta aircraft with Delta crews going that way anymore. What's up with that? Did you buy them?

Is Salt lake still shrinking? I see those Skywest jets all over the place. Do they fly routes that you used to fly?

If all you can do is pull out the names of a couple of little airlines in Mexico and Canada and compare that to your issues, I just have to wonder. That's about as rational as saying our Nation can solve our mult-trillion dollar debt by taking away tax credits for Corporate jet owners. Ludicrous.

 

[twobits]

AC,

That is possible - there always will be one or two extreme surprises. You might even see new hires on the 777!

Jonjuan,
no hatred. Just being practical. I also predicted that the JAL merger would not happen, while most were licking their lips saying that they knew a manager who said it was a done deal (BTW - managers are paid to lie to you)! Nobody could have predicted the tsunami disaster, but if Delta had acquired any part of JAL; it would have been a financial mess of huge proportions! Starting hiring in 2015 seems reasonable - but of course it could be sooner.... or later. My assumptions are that a few hubs will be consolidated - coinciding with the exit of the DC-9. Retirements will be higher... but so will the general population's retirements. Guess what, less discretionary income to go around, less travel for business, and a massive shift in how money goes around will change airlines fleets, frequencies and destinations. So, saying good bye to the old folks on the seniority list is a double edged sword!

I've been wrong before, but this is an opinion board - I'm practical, not hopelessly optimistic (what management wants you to be so you stay a happy employee). You have to take the good with the bad!

 

[jonjuan]

AC,

That is possible - there always will be one or two extreme surprises. You might even see new hires on the 777!

Jonjuan,
no hatred. Just being practical. I also predicted that the JAL merger would not happen, while most were licking their lips saying that they knew a manager who said it was a done deal (BTW - managers are paid to lie to you)! Nobody could have predicted the tsunami disaster, but if Delta had acquired any part of JAL; it would have been a financial mess of huge proportions! Starting hiring in 2015 seems reasonable - but of course it could be sooner.... or later. My assumptions are that a few hubs will be consolidated - coinciding with the exit of the DC-9. Retirements will be higher... but so will the general population's retirements. Guess what, less discretionary income to go around, less travel for business, and a massive shift in how money goes around will change airlines fleets, frequencies and destinations. So, saying good bye to the old folks on the seniority list is a double edged sword!

I've been wrong before, but this is an opinion board - I'm practical, not hopelessly optimistic (what management wants you to be so you stay a happy employee). You have to take the good with the bad!

For very short term prognostications, you were wrong-TWICE. 1) All DC-9s will be gone in '11 and 2) no hiring until '12 (done in '10). Then again, a broken clock is right twice a day. Coincidence? I think not.

 

[twobits]

jon,

from Richard:
“It’s a fact that domestic U.S. growth in our industry will be flat or slow at best for some years to come,”

From ED:
“Hope is not a strategy, We’ve realized we can’t keep hoping oil prices will fall again. If they do, that’s great, but we have to price for fuel at the higher price it is now and build around that. We will also plan to reduce our overall capacity by about 5% this fall and look to retire some of our older, less fuel-efficient aircraft."

 

[twobits]

I wonder what winter will bring. Widebody capacity is increasing in order to build international traffic, which is great news. As that grows though, an overall 5% reduction makes a considerable dent in the narrow-body fleet (i.e. DC-9's). It isn't the end of 2011 yet, so you can't tell me I'm wrong until December 31st, 2011! This is not doom and gloom - just the way things are jon. I'm not going to get into a pissing match with you, primarily because I only log into this thing very sporadically - for good reason! Next time I log on in 4 months, we will still be talking about the same thing; when is Delta going to hire?

 

[twobits]

Finally, read this statement:

Richard forecast a profitable year for Delta, in spite of economic uncertainly and fuel costs that have remained high. He said a focus will have to remain on lowering the airline’s nonfuel costs.



This is codeword for hub consolidation, and what can we get out of our employees and suppliers?! Airline management 101! But don't listen to me.... I'm always wrong.

Final question for you to ponder, Jon. How many mergers have created an airline larger than the sum total of the original airlines (in terms of airplanes, pilots, etc...) 5 years after the merger? Think of the past 30 years...... ok, my rant is over.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Why don't you do some research and see how many 90's DAL has taken delivery of in the last three months....

 

[twobits]

right.... they are there to take over flying from the DC-9.... that will be leaving us by the end of the year, or mid 2012. It plays into hub consolidation because the 90's take the traffic of two hubs to one city. If there is an overall decrease of 5% in flying, but more MD90's come on property and international traffic increases..... where is the loss??? DC-9s gone, earlier than any pilot is told............. coincident with the early retirements, hub consolidation, cost cutting, etc.....

 

[ACL65PILOT]

right.... they are there to take over flying from the DC-9.... that will be leaving us by the end of the year, or mid 2012. It plays into hub consolidation because the 90's take the traffic of two hubs to one city. If there is an overall decrease of 5% in flying, but more MD90's come on property and international traffic increases..... where is the loss??? DC-9s gone, earlier than any pilot is told............. coincident with the early retirements, hub consolidation, cost cutting, etc.....

I agree we will see Hub consolidation. I suspect MEM and the 73N in CVG will be gone. The 320 will be moved to ATL from MEM and the 73N will go to DTW. Given the mainline flights each of these aircraft perform out of these two "Hubs" the impact is marginal. Most of the rotations built out of these hubs are on leg to another hub and then the balance of the trip is flow out of the other hub. We have seen that for years.

The consolidation will get rid of a little bid of credit on a few trips, but most of that will be done away with when the 330 and 320 open in ATL next month. The rest of the credit time that is built in to our rotations is more efficient than rebasing pilots. (Ref 13 Asia trips and 6+ day Europe trips)

In the frequency regeime, much of the MD-90 flying is and will take over CRJ flying. The frequency will be cut, but the service will be mainline. Most of the 9 flying frankly will go to the E-Jet. We have seen that as well. Some will go to the MD88/90 but most has gone the other way. Block hrs are down at DCI, and off 20% since the peak summer season at mainline. I would suspect a 3-6% decrease in summer block hrs next summer if the world financial condition does not dampen.

The fact is that, given DAL's network, moving of the MSP Sims, Slot Swap, age 65, FT/DT etc, there will be a need to hire. I disagree with the 8,500 number you publish, but I can see us going to near 11,000(at the worst) at our low point. In reality the direction of future pilot staffing, but not until the 2017 time frame (no more acquisitions) The only reason we would even go that low, is due to retirements outpacing hiring. FT/DT alone will add somewhere between 300-700 bodies in the next three years. The killer with that is the max amount of duty in two weeks, not the block time, or circadian limitations. The one thing DAL cannot afford to do is furlough. We will be fat this winter, but not as much as ppl think. A lot of training needs to be done in the shoulder months so that they can start moving sims.