Is Delta Hiring?

[GogglesPisano]

You can sugar coat it all day long, but in the end, Delta only needs around 8500 pilots to be an efficient operation with the routes that it wants.

Please, Professor, tell us what formula or inside information you utilized to caclulate this fact.

 

[On Your Six]

Not to depress the ever so positive outlook here, but Delta is not going to be hiring for a long time - at least 2013 and maybe later. Why? Not the economy, but network inefficiencies that will result in base realignments (why else would the 330's be getting bunks for 4 man). You can sugar coat it all day long, but in the end, Delta only needs around 8500 pilots to be an efficient operation with the routes that it wants. This is after it hands out flying to other carrier's. With that said, when pilot hiring does resume (2015 at the earliest), at least there will be some movement at a few hundred bodies a year finally! Everyone has few years to brush up on their jive before any major influx of pilots at Delta.

With huge retirements occurring for the next 15 years, training will be a huge issue. One retirement at the top can generate 10 trainings below, primarily because there are many different fleet types. Delta isn't Southwest because it flies all over the World, needing different sized planes for different missions. All of those retirements means lots of people continually in 6 week courses, and waiting for IOEs and TOEs, necessitating more pilots on hand to take up the slack. Some years coming up have 700-800 people retiring at age 65, if they make it that long. SWA, OTOH, has one or maybe two plane types with the 717 now, and only 150 per year scheduled to retire, along with the relatively young AT group coming onboard. Totally different compared to Legacies and their future retirements.



OYS

 

[Sacha]

OYS
Man that sounds great. So as a Delta new hire, you shouldn't have too long to upgrade. What do you think? A couple of years? Maybe three? Do you have equipment locks? I remember my Delta buddies telling me back in 96/97 that they would bid other equipment just to get all the time off because the training center was all jammed up. They were even shipping people out to America west for sim training. They thought it was kinda funny how ticked off the CEO Leo Mullins was because it was costing the company a small fortune. Word from my Buds that they were carrying an extra 1,000 pilots just to handle the training float. Hopefully you will get to take advantage of the same type of deal again.

 

[Sacha]

OYS
Its a sweet deal looking at your airline like that..........until the music stops.

But then you already know that since you were at United.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I heard this from the Senior VP of Ops a month ago.

-300-400 more bodies needed for the LGA-DCA slot swap alone.
-Flight time duty time (them not knowing the language) could need 700-900 more.
-180 early retirements mostly from 330 and 747....need to backfill but not doing it right now, due to no idea what network wants.
-330 getting 12+ hour bunks for four man ops....(no numbers given, but more bids to go out once complete).
-That age 65 thingy ain't working out so well, and all a guy has to do is turn in papers and be done with no notice. (has them alarmed, but no numbers given)
-2013 a couple hundred of retirements a year starts up for the next 10 years.

That's the good news....

Bad news...
-243 bypassed recall, some may return...
-it all depends on the economy.

That's about right. From what I am hearing there will be 330 backfill on the next AE. Also some growth spots on the 330A in ATL.

They may need a few bodies late this year or early next, but they cannot go through 2012 without hiring. Their words not mine.

Also, retirements peak at about 813 a year in 2022. Half of the list will be gone by that time. Average age of the early out pilots was 60.5 and the average age of a pilot leaving before the early out was 62.7.

 

[formerdal]

Saw BB on a layover a few weeks ago and asked him if we would ever hire again? All he said was "in 2012." from the horses mouth....

 

[twobits]

Intuition is how I came up with 8500 pilots by 2016. However, if you are on the bottom of the list thinking that you will be in an A seat in less than 5 years and that makes you happy - go ahead and keep the dream alive! I on the other hand, am not trying to rain on your parade, but just give folks here that are super excited about retirements (etc...) a reality check. You don't have to agree with me - but you might want to take it into consideration for future planning.

 

[jonjuan]

Twocups, get over your little self. No one over at DAL expects a 5 year upgrade. What's your anger toward Delta? You have hundreds of posts saying Delta won't hire, will shrink, etc. I have more than a few buds there and without exception, all are happy to be there. Fact is, 50% will be mandatorily gone in 10 years at 65. People retiring 3-4 years prior and movement will be massive (unlike SWA).

 

[On Your Six]

OYS
Man that sounds great. So as a Delta new hire, you shouldn't have too long to upgrade. What do you think? A couple of years? Maybe three? Do you have equipment locks? I remember my Delta buddies telling me back in 96/97 that they would bid other equipment just to get all the time off because the training center was all jammed up. They were even shipping people out to America west for sim training. They thought it was kinda funny how ticked off the CEO Leo Mullins was because it was costing the company a small fortune. Word from my Buds that they were carrying an extra 1,000 pilots just to handle the training float. Hopefully you will get to take advantage of the same type of deal again.

Being a Corndog, you only have the choice of going to the left seat, continuing the same type trips you always do, with a couple stops through St Louis etc. Being new, I am enjoying my current base and routes, but my previous corporate job had a bit of interesting international flying, so my next step will be to go over to the 767 and see some places I haven't been to in awhile, maybe for a few years, until I get the urge to fly domestic again, maybe on a new 100 seater we may order very soon, maybe by then in the left seat. I can always switch back and forth, maybe eventually over to the 777 as an FO, or again to a narrowbody for even better QOL. Ah, choices. The retirements are real, 2000 in the next 5 years, and double that within the next ten. Word is hiring will start early next year, and continue for years. You just can't argue with actual retirement numbers, unless the retirement age goes up again. From what I have been told, the difference between now and the extra pilots in the late 90s is that there was no penalty to furlough back then, whereas there is a flowdown to Compass and Mesaba now that kept the company from furloughing during the last recession in 2008, due to costs. Not a certainty, but good nonetheless.


OYS

 

[On Your Six]

Intuition is how I came up with 8500 pilots by 2016. However, if you are on the bottom of the list thinking that you will be in an A seat in less than 5 years and that makes you happy - go ahead and keep the dream alive! I on the other hand, am not trying to rain on your parade, but just give folks here that are super excited about retirements (etc...) a reality check. You don't have to agree with me - but you might want to take it into consideration for future planning.

Intuition..... Wasn't there an article stating 7500 retirements within 15 years to age 65? Yes, yes there is. If they come from the top, then that means a lot of movement going up. This airline will never have one type of plane, and by 2017 there will still be md88/90s, 320/19s, 744s, 777s, 75/76, 330s, and 737s, with the possibility of 100 seaters like the C-series. What does that mean? Training will continue.


OYS

 

[Dan Roman]

I agree. It was very rare at my 2 airlines to be anything OTHER THAN white male.

But he needs to make himself feel better for not being qualified for a better job.

The simple fact is all the whiners about non white/females getting hired at the airliners are people trying rationalize why they didn't get hired.
Plenty of white males get hired at all airlines, if you can't get hired it is not because you are being discriminated against no matter who you are.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Retirements by year: (Does not take in to account the 165 early outs this year) I also assume that DAL will need to offer early outs to try and smooth out this peak.

2011 5
2012 18
2013 101
2014 157
2015 224
2016 297
2017 372
2018 463
2019 549
2020 640
2021 824
2022 866
2023 821
2024 809
2025 719
2026 614
2027 513
2028 479
2029 476
2030 492
2031 428
2032 324
2033 257
2034 165
2035 108
2036 92
2037 46

 

[Sacha]

Oys

Moving back and forth between equipment sounds great. Now is there a cost associated with this to the company? What's that? You don't care?.... Your entitled?.....Figures. I guess you didn't learn anything at United.....or maybe you did,hence your entitlement attitude.

Your Avatar couldn't be more spot on. Now as an all-knowing new-hire, could you comment on my Delta buds major concern with your managements drive to Codeshare with other international airlines and domestic regionals. They all got hired in the mid to late 80's so what do they know? But they keep using the term "Virtual Airline" to describe Delta. Is that true?

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Oys

Moving back and forth between equipment sounds great. Now is there a cost associated with this to the company? What's that? You don't care?.... Your entitled?.....Figures. I guess you didn't learn anything at United.....or maybe you did,hence your entitlement attitude.

Your Avatar couldn't be more spot on. Now as an all-knowing new-hire, could you comment on my Delta buds major concern with your managements drive to Codeshare with other international airlines and domestic regionals. They all got hired in the mid to late 80's so what do they know? But they keep using the term "Virtual Airline" to describe Delta. Is that true?

Delta's argument is that training costs are static. The ROI for a training event according to them is under two years, same as a furlough. If you band pay together, it becomes a QOL decision. DAL may go that way, and you would be looking at an average of five training events in a career.

 

[Sacha]

Well Mr. Burns is planning 5 training events in five years. Just as well. Keeps him off the line. The Instructors at Mecca will start having to draw straws though.