Interesting Song post from another board

[Ty Webb]

Here's a link to an interesting discussion on another board.

http://airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1078237/

I think that Song and other Legacy-to-LCC efforts will fail, largely because in order to succeed as an LCC, you have to have productivity and enthusiasm, two things that are very hard to generate moving backwards.

I think if Song doesn;t lose too much, what will happen is they will use it as a vehicle to bring the rest of Delta down tot he new baseline.

I see a future where there is a 10-20% Delta (mostly international and long-haul jewels) (31-41%) Song ( B-scale mainline) and DCI providing the remaining 49% ASM's as they are right now.

But what do I know- I'm just a yoke and throttle operator from Sector 7-G.

 

[enigma]

Hey Ty, is airliners.net/discussion worth $60 a year?

I don't like to pay for something unless it is an exceptional product.

regards,
8N

 

[vschip]

nice little Simpsons quote, Ty, "hmmm, beer, aaarrrrrrgggggg..."

 

[Ty Webb]

Hey Ty, is airliners.net/discussion worth $60 a year?[/i]


I don't know . . . . I only lurk there. It rubs me the wrong way when they charge money up front for a discussion board.

When Mark was asking for contributions here last year, I ponied up, as did many others, but it seems different to charge up front.

 

[FlyDeltasJets]

I don't think it costs anything. I have posted there a few times, and wasn't charged. Maybe they have changed their policy.

 

[FlyDeltasJets]

I just visited the page again. Apparently, they did change. I guess I was grandfathered in.

You aren't missing much...DO NOT pay $60! Very few people on that board have any idea what they are talking about when it comes to the industry. They can, however, tell you the serial numbers of every airplane ever built. Some of them are pretty creepy!

 

[DarnNearaJet]

You aren't missing much...DO NOT pay $60! Very few people on that board have any idea what they are talking about when it comes to the industry. They can, however, tell you the serial numbers of every airplane ever built. Some of them are pretty creepy! [/B]

Sounds like a pay-for-view version of these message boards!!

 

[FlyDeltasJets]

Darn,

That board makes the inhabitants of this one look like CE Woolman, Chuck Yeager, and Charles Lindbergh rolled into one!

Check it out. It's worth a look!

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I read and post on airliners.net quite a bit. I don't pay anything, but I've been there for quite a while, so maybe I'm grandfathered in too???

It has a lot of PAX posting, with a lot of info on foreign airlines. I definitely wouldn't pay money for it, UNLESS you were serious about flying for an overseas airline. If you want to go overseas, it probably is worth it to find out about airlines worldwide.

If the cost was $5-$10, it probably would be worth that.

There are less pilot posters there, but there are some who have more info on managment-type info than you typically find on flightinfo.

Hope U R flying, or if furloughed, have a lead on a flying job, if U want to stay in the cockpit!

CLiff
GRB

 

[General Lee]

Ty Webb,

Well, I guess we'll have to see what happens to Song. Normally, most Majors probably couldn't handle a LCC within itself. I am hoping that Delta can. Delta is in the best shape financially compared to the other Majors, and we do have other things that can benefit us. First, the productivity issue. We will be using the planes more throughout the day compared to other mainline aircraft. An extra two or three hours a day could provide the daily amount in revenue to pay for the aircraft. (it may cost $10,000 a day to lease the plane for example..?) The turn times supposedly will be faster (50 mins) and that will help with the productivity. The crews (except the pilots) will be paid differently. The ground crew, flight attendants, gate agents etc. will have separate salaries. The pilots will also probably be paid less also (we are getting the financial analysis done right now for possible cuts). The planes will hold 199 passengers, which will lower the over all costs compared to A320's at Jetblue. Some people may say that that will leave us with more "empty" seats. Well, I flew on plenty of Delta Express flights, and they were all full. Everyone says that Delta Express was a failure. I think the main reason we had it was to fight off Southwest from taking a lot of market share in Florida. The reason we shut half of it down after 9-11 was because we FURLOUGHED half of the first officers at Express. (The first 400 furloughs were Nov 1st, 2001---and Express had the lowest pay at Delta). The company made that decision, they couldn't furlough out of senority number. Another reason I think it will do well is the code share and frequent flyer program. Sure, most people looking for cheap fares may not belong to a frequent flyer program, but a lot do. IF you are a businessman flying alot to Florida from NYC, why not get a free trip to Venice, Italy in the process? Also, our product, when finished in OCT, will be great and might be better than Jetblue's.
There might be some kinks getting everything finished, but it will happen. The ability to fly from all 3 NYC airports might also sway some passengers away from Jetblue. All they need to do is try it once, and then they can compare. Some will switch to Song, and that will hurt Jetblue.

As far as the future of percentages in Delta, I too can see more of a Song product if it does well. But, not every city can get a LCC, and some cities--like Ft. Walton Beach, FL, or Portland, ME do very well for us with mainline fares. You are correct about keeping a mainline for International travel, which has always been very profitable for us until the Iraq war. With that conflict over, our European and Latin American flying will prosper again. And, the DCI flying also does very well for us, and provides a lot of feed from cities like Des Monies---which might not be able to fill an MD-88, but does bring 50 passengers for us thru ATL and onto one of our 767-400's bound for Palm Beach.

This is not an advertisement, I just think we have a good chance to do well and stunt Jetblue's growth, which according to Leo is one of Song's main priorities. Obviously they are doing something right, and we need to do the same. We do have enthusiastic people working at Song---I have met some of the flight attendants selected (who "auditioned"---I know that sounds dumb) and they were all fun. And, with the high pilot pay scales (even after the possible pay cuts)---you can bet the pilots will be enthusiastic. I will be. I think the lime green and white 757's are cool.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Ty Webb]

[iThanks for a well-written, informative post. I think though, that the other attempts at LCC's by Delta, USAirways, Continental and UAL were probably planned to address the pertinent areas of their times. Perhaps Song is version 2.0 but I don't think it will be successful as an LCC, I think it is probably more of a testbed for the future of Delta mainline, disguised as something to deal with JetBlue. It is the proverbial "camel's nose under the tent".

Originally posted by General Lee
This is not an advertisement, I just think we have a good chance to do well and stunt Jetblue's growth, which according to Leo is one of Song's main priorities.

I may just be a line pilot and a former entrepreneur, but I think Leo is stuck in the '80's, here. That same dinosaur technique of losing hundreds of millions to try to starve the competition and preserve market share doesn;t work against LCC's that are making money.

That strategy can also backfire, as JetBlue demonstrated by firing a shot across DAL's bow when they announced ATL-LGB. "Attacking" a LCC is probably not such a great idea, since LCC's can do much more harm to your bottom line than you might expect. I once heard that DAL claims the $700 million that we take in costs them over a billion in lost revenue- an unsubstantiated rumor, but probably true.

I think that if Delta continues to do LCC operations, eventually the LCC's will start dishing it out, too . . . like goring some sacred cows like CVG and SLT . . . .

Obviously they [JetBlue] are doing something right, and we need to do the same. We do have enthusiastic people working at Song---I have met some of the flight attendants selected (who "auditioned"---I know that sounds dumb) and they were all fun. And, with the high pilot pay scales (even after the possible pay cuts)---you can bet the pilots will be enthusiastic.

Enthusiasm is great, but I think it will be hard to maintain when the reality sets in that the people there are doing the same job, actually, let me rephrase that . . . working substantially harder (hence more productive) then their counterparts at mainline, for a lot less money, well, you start losing the productivity.

What do I think DAL should do? As I said before, I think they should raise their rates to at least break even, while they ride this out, stop worrying about what the LCC's are doing, focus on the premium customer who is willing to pay a premium for their services, and put their money into things that those customers prefer. . . . and stop gouging customers in the first place, which is how the LCC's got into the market in the first place. Adopt a more reasonable fare structure- like America West has done, and throw out the book of Dinosaur Airline Management.

But, again, I'm just a yoke and throttle operator. . . . . .

I think the lime green and white 757's are cool.

I do, too.

Bye Bye---General Lee [/B]

 

[General Lee]

TY Webb,

I think people can make pre-judgements due to their experience in the field, but you and I both know that we are not privey to the inner dealings at Delta. We both really do not know what the strategies are, what the technological advances at Delta technologies are, and what the true motivations are of the employees. One of my flight attendant friends was out for 9 months on leave and just came back to fly for Song--and she is really motivated (after doing nothing for 9 months). She is happy to have a job. A lot of the Song flight attendants are low in seniority, and want to work. A lot of them worked at the regionals before Delta, and are used to cleaning up the plane etc. The ones who are not are still on INTL on mainline. Delta also only has one major union, the pilots, and has major flexibility when it comes to economics. Also, with the planes beginning to fill up for summer, it is just a matter of time when fares to INTL destinations and smaller cities not flown to by LCC's--like Ft Walton Beach---will rise, and the coffers will fill again. I think the economy will go up eventually, and people will return. We have made a lot of cuts and savings throughout this airline, and we will do well.

Bye Bye----General Lee

 

[46Driver]

A lot of the people are driving in here (PNS) from Ft Walton and Mobile due to AirTran and the lowering of fares. It is interesting to note that PNS is packed and traffic is up while traffic is down both at Ft Walton and Mobile. Quite a few of the passengers were driving in due to the airfare (PNS-ATL airfare for a weekend was about $340 while MOB - just 65 miles away - was $570). At least full airplanes are good for us all.