Industry is getting bad

[siucavflight]

Skywest stops all newhire classes(except for a few on the Bro, and that should stop soon).
ASA.
Delta shrinking 15-25 RJs out of fleet.
UAL today announced that all newhire classes are cancelled.
Delta wants to cut 30,000 out of 52,000 jobs.
Dollar is continuing to weaken.
And today XJET announces that they will be offering COLA.

Not a good time to be on the bottom of anyones list. This sucks. Usually you can get a good 7 years on the upswing of a cycle. This one was very short lived, and the down side of this cycle will be lower then post 9/11.

 

[BoilerUP]

The Sky Is Falling, The Sky Is Falling

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

I never knew the industry to be good since 9/12/01.

 

[siucavflight]

I never knew the industry to be good since 9/12/01.

This is true.

 

[No.W.]

Skywest stops all newhire classes(except for a few on the Bro, and that should stop soon).
ASA.
Delta shrinking 15-25 RJs out of fleet.
UAL today announced that all newhire classes are cancelled.
Delta wants to cut 2000 out of 52,000 jobs.
Dollar is continuing to weaken.
And today XJET announces that they will be offering COLA.

Not a good time to be on the bottom of anyones list. This sucks. Usually you can get a good 7 years on the upswing of a cycle. This one was very short lived, and the down side of this cycle will be lower then post 9/11.

FIXED read the press release people. It says they are offering the leaves to 30,000 people in order to cut 2000 jobs(of that 30k). Seriously...it's not that hard to read.

 

[JoeMerchant]

I never knew the industry to be good since 9/12/01.

Actually Oct.24, 1978 was more of a factor.....

 

[siucavflight]

FIXED read the press release people. It says they are offering the leaves to 30,000 people in order to cut 2000 jobs(of that 30k). Seriously...it's not that hard to read.

So you are telling me that they are going to offer leave to 30K, and hope only 2K take it?
Heres the press release.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080318/ap_on_bi_ge/delta_jobs
2000 of those 30000 are frontline and management jobs. The other 28K are the rank and file.

Actually Oct.24, 1978 was more of a factor.....

Yes it was. I am hoping that this downturn will lead to some form of regulation again. I am not a socialist but it would be good in this case.

 

[No.W.]

So you are telling me that they are going to offer leave to 30K, and hope only 2K take it?
Heres the press release.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080318/ap_on_bi_ge/delta_jobs
2000 of those 30000 are frontline and management jobs. The other 28K are the rank and file.

Yes it was. I am hoping that this downturn will lead to some form of regulation again. I am not a socialist but it would be good in this case.

That's not what the release says...right at the top, see that? It says:

Executives at Atlanta-based Delta said in a memo to employees that the airline's goal is to cut 2,000 frontline, administrative and management jobs through the severance program, attrition and other initiatives.

Perhaps more will take the leave...but their goal is to cut those 2000 jobs. If they were cutting 30k jobs, they would CUT 30k jobs...NOT offer voluntary leaves. When that happens(and it MAY be just around the corner), then I won't correct you. For now, all of this speculation is just that...speculation. Posts like this, and media attention that says, "the sky is falling" is not helping. We'll see what happens...but right now they are NOT cutting 30k jobs...simply offering leave to a lot of people in hopes that that will be enough.

 

[No.W.]

And right below that in the press release:

Delta spokeswoman Betsy Talton said the company would accept more job cuts, if more employees than its goal take the voluntary severance. The severance program primarily affects mainline Delta employees.

How do you read that? They aren't cutting 30k jobs.

By the way, do you have any idea how many "frontline, administrative, and management jobs" there are at Delta? Probably every 10th ramp agent is some kind of supervisor...We aren't talking SENIOR management here.

Read the press release...breath...read the release again...it's not as bad as it sounds at first...

 

[No.W.]

BTW, "frontline" IS rank and file.

 

[brokedash]

Actually Oct.24, 1978 was more of a factor.....

I think the day that the majors decided to start siphoning off virtually all routes to the RJs was a good date for the start of decline.

RJs are useful but were used far more than what they where orgionally inteded for.


BTW Siu nice Avatar, as usual!

 

[siucavflight]

Thanks on the avatar compliment, they are big.

Who is going to take the RJ hit that Delta is cutting out? My guess would be comair and SKW.

 

[No.W.]

Thanks on the avatar compliment, they are big.

Who is going to take the RJ hit that Delta is cutting out? My guess would be comair and SKW.

I think it will primarily be SkyWest(and I work there...so don't go flaming). SLC is a vulnerable base...especially in relation to a merger with NW. I'd say we lose 20 and comair 5...but we'll see.

Sucks either way.

 

[siucavflight]

It does suck. And was not trying to flame either. Just seems like they are in a better position to cut SKW flying, the good news is that SKW has other options so the cut in 20 will not affect you as much as the CA cut in 5, if this is indeed how it happens.

 

[No.W.]

It does suck. And was not trying to flame either. Just seems like they are in a better position to cut SKW flying, the good news is that SKW has other options so the cut in 20 will not affect you as much as the CA cut in 5, if this is indeed how it happens.

Yeah, I've got contingency plans(you always have to in this industry). Shoot, it wouldn't surprise me if the closed SLC. Call me pessimistic...but I could see it happening. SKW is pretty fat right now...20 airplanes in one base COULD be bad...but I agree that Comair stands to feel the hit harder. Hopefully they don't cut anything...or they give preferential hiring to the Comair guys. Don't see why the couldn't(yeah, yeah, I know the whole RJDC thing)...Comair is the only wholly owned left.

 

[JoeMerchant]

I think the day that the majors decided to start siphoning off virtually all routes to the RJs was a good date for the start of decline.

RJs are useful but were used far more than what they where orgionally inteded for.


BTW Siu nice Avatar, as usual!

Actually the RJ is just an airplane.....nothing special....It was ALPA that decided to try and make a dividing line between "real" airplanes and "little" airplanes.....ALPA drew an arbitrary line at 50 seats if it had jet engines (all props are "little").......

Management then exploited this mistake by ALPA.....

Oct. 24, 1978 was the day the rules changed....I'm not sure ALPA has figured out how to deal with the new "rules"......

 

[JoeMerchant]

Hopefully they don't cut anything...or they give preferential hiring to the Comair guys. Don't see why the couldn't(yeah, yeah, I know the whole RJDC thing)...Comair is the only wholly owned left.

....so if DAL closes CVG....do really see ANY HIRING at DAL?.....All the majors will soon stop hiring....Most already have.....This will go down as the shortest "boom" cycle ever in this business.....

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Actually the RJ is just an airplane.....nothing special....It was ALPA that decided to try and make a dividing line between "real" airplanes and "little" airplanes.....ALPA drew an arbitrary line at 50 seats if it had jet engines (all props are "little").......

Management then exploited this mistake by ALPA.....

Oct. 24, 1978 was the day the rules changed....I'm not sure ALPA has figured out how to deal with the new "rules"......

and still you ran for and was elected an ALPA officer...

 

[JoeMerchant]

and still you ran for and was elected an ALPA officer...

.....silly me....I thought I could change things and make a difference....Dealing with ALPA is like the courtroom scene in "A Few Good Men"....

"Truth.....You can't handle the Truth".......

ALPA has made just about every mistake possible since 1978......The quagmire is to deep now to get out of.......

 

[No.W.]

....so if DAL closes CVG....do really see ANY HIRING at DAL?.....All the majors will soon stop hiring....Most already have.....This will go down as the shortest "boom" cycle ever in this business.....

Yeah, I guess that's true. Where are you hearing they are closing CVG?

I'd think of SLC as more vulnerable...again based on the possible merger with NW and redundant bases. Then again...I suppose they could close both in the event of a merger.