Implications of S.65

[viperdriver]

If the retirement age is changed to 65:

What percentage of guys will still retire at 60?
Will you still be able to retire at 60?
How will that affect retirement (still get a B-Fund)?

Not looking to argue the issue, just wonder what the implications are.

Here is figuring I did for Fedex.

360 /yr hiring next year. 150 retirements. Say 50% stay on til 65. Makes 285 new hires.

Obviously everything is speculation, and rule change would take awhile, so just using next years numbers for an example.

ViperD

 

[Phaedrus]

If the retirement age is changed to 60, then: 100%; yes; and I don't know.

 

[canyonblue]

If the retirement age is changed to 60:

ViperD

You mean 65?

 

[sandman2122]

Give the guy a break, he's probably been doing Memphis night hub turns all week.

Have a great weekend everybody!

Going to fly my RV!

 

[Falconjet]

I would guess more like 95% of the folks at FedEx would stay past 60.

Just a guess. That would cut the new hire number down to about 200.

Just my SWAG.

FJ

 

[shagadelic]

At Southwest, I think the retirement number will be virtually zero. By 60, people have 5 weeks of vacation; Captains have no problem giving away anything they want; they mostly have large banks of sick pay that they were going to trade for additional coverage to get them through to 65, which they won't have to use for that purpose now. All this equates to a GREAT part time job with benefits.

Why would anyone retire when you can fly as little or as much as you want?

 

[JohnDoe]

Seems to me that if the age 60 rule is changed, there is a good chance you can wave buh-bye to a good chunk of the hiring for the next 5 years.

In light of that, I don't quite understand the people who say "but you get to stay in your career for 5 more years....". If you are hired 5 years later than you would have been otherwise, what's the difference?

 

[semperfido]

At Southwest, I think the retirement number will be virtually zero. By 60, people have 5 weeks of vacation; Captains have no problem giving away anything they want; they mostly have large banks of sick pay that they were going to trade for additional coverage to get them through to 65, which they won't have to use for that purpose now. All this equates to a GREAT part time job with benefits.

Why would anyone retire when you can fly as little or as much as you want?

...you really think it will be that way by the time you are there?....i doubt it.

 

[sandman2122]

Well, based on life expectancy statistics for pilots retiring before Age 60 vs. after Age 60 - I'll take the early retirement.

You'll live longer, get to enjoy your retirement and spend time with your grandkids, not flying trips with your S/O or F/O "grandkids".

 

[semperfido]

Well, based on life expectancy statistics for pilots retiring before Age 60 vs. after Age 60 -.

you must be talking about night frieght hauler back side of the clock pilots

 

[Spooky 1]

Well, based on life expectancy statistics for pilots retiring before Age 60 vs. after Age 60 - I'll take the early retirement.

You'll live longer, get to enjoy your retirement and spend time with your grandkids, not flying trips with your S/O or F/O "grandkids".

Can you direct me to your source of this data?

 

[kassel737]

Grandkids. Heck,I fly with Captains who will still have kids in elementary school.

 

[PTinbound]

Seems to me that if the age 60 rule is changed, there is a good chance you can wave buh-bye to a good chunk of the hiring for the next 5 years.

In light of that, I don't quite understand the people who say "but you get to stay in your career for 5 more years....". If you are hired 5 years later than you would have been otherwise, what's the difference?

At Southwest, if EVERY captain stayed until age 65 AND FLEW A FULL SCHEDULE, it would delay my upgrade from 5.5 years for another 17 months, to just under a seven year upgrade. So I'd get an extra 17 months of being a senior FO making more money than a lot of narrowbody captains at other airlines, getting primo shedules with Christmas off, etc. Then I could work another 5 years at the end of my career as a senior captain enjoying the same schedules but making even more money. It's a really good deal all in all.

Also, while very few of our captains would chose to still hang it up at 60, I really doubt that most of them would fly a full schedule. If they did, our 500 (or whatever) new hires would drop about 150 to 350. But again, I bet we'd still have to hire at least 400 because many of our captains would start dropping 1 or 2 trips a month past age 60. Remeber, most of the reason an FO at Southwest upgrades is due to growht, not retirements. I realize this isn't true at other places, but here it is.

 

[FoxHunter]

If the retirement age is changed to 65:

What percentage of guys will still retire at 60?
Will you still be able to retire at 60?
How will that affect retirement (still get a B-Fund)?

ViperD

I figure 80% will continue past age 60. A few will still retire as early as age 55. There will be no change in the B-Fund. Pilots have been going past age 60 for years, back to the S/O seat.

I think the planning at FedEx has taken into account S.65. Even with the change training will be operating at near 100% for all those wide bodies coming. The bill had 20 co-sponsers even before being marked up.

 

[Cyclone]

pt...not quite right

At Southwest, if EVERY captain stayed until age 65 AND FLEW A FULL SCHEDULE, it would delay my upgrade from 5.5 years for another 17 months, to just under a seven year upgrade. So I'd get an extra 17 months of being a senior FO making more money than a lot of narrowbody captains at other airlines, getting primo shedules with Christmas off, etc. Then I could work another 5 years at the end of my career as a senior captain enjoying the same schedules but making even more money. It's a really good deal all in all.

Also, while very few of our captains would chose to still hang it up at 60, I really doubt that most of them would fly a full schedule. If they did, our 500 (or whatever) new hires would drop about 150 to 350. But again, I bet we'd still have to hire at least 400 because many of our captains would start dropping 1 or 2 trips a month past age 60. Remeber, most of the reason an FO at Southwest upgrades is due to growht, not retirements. I realize this isn't true at other places, but here it is.

pt

if every captain you fly with flies that much less...added to the fact they are getting the most vacation...and they are probably calling in sick more than the younger guys...your company's industry leading productivity is at risk

if your upgrade is delayed a year and a half...that costs you ~$100,000 in up-front money for the years you wait to upgrade (salary, 401k, and profit sharing...that is conservative)...if you invested that money...and at ~ 8% growth that would be $800,000 in 20 years...if you're 40 that means $800,000 when you turn 60. if you are in favor of working until 65...you'll have to...just to get the money back that you lost when you didn't upgrade. the old farts have you fooled on this one.

 

[klhoard]

. . .<snip>. . If you are hired 5 years later than you would have been otherwise, what's the difference?

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The difference is that I'm already on the seniority list and will have five more years to fly around in the left seat of the A380 (or A410 or A450).
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[shagadelic]

Cyclone, my point exactly.

I don't know if things will be the same when I'm 60, so get as much as you can now and bank it. Southwest is great now, but there are no guarantees. That 17 month delay is not something I would trade for a possible 5 years of extra flying when I'm 60.

 

[semperfido]

Why should it be any different than it is for the rest of Corp America? Pass a physical, keep flying. Simple. All those upgrade, furloughed pilot, etc, etc arguments are smoke and mirrors and have nothing to do with it.

Fine example of "pull up the ladder, I have mine.... my career advancement has been benefitting from the current age 60 rule up until this point."

this is the way it works in the rest of our economy. why should p121 airline pilots be any different?

 

[JohnDoe]

quote:
"The difference is that I'm already on the seniority list and will have five more years to fly around in the left seat of the A380 (or A410 or A450)."


Well........no kidding.

But I wasn't talking about somebody already on the senority list, now was I....

Fine example of "pull up the ladder, I have mine.... my career advancement has been benefitting from the current age 60 rule up until this point."

 

[Flopgut]

Upon turning age 60 the pilot should be surplussed to the bottom of the list (behind furloughs even). That way the industry keeps moving. That would also keep us in line with ICAO/JAA standard.