If UAL sinks - what happens to SKW?

[ILStoMinimums]

Is this an issue to worry about? I see Skywest is attatched to UAL, if UAL was to go belly up, would that mean half of Skywest pilots on the street?

Sure would be a horrible scenario!

What do you all think about this possibility, or am I beating a dead horse? No flame bait intended.....

 

[jergar999]

I would be more worried about Air Wisconsin. It seems to me like they would be more vulnerable, given that the U is currently their only codeshare. It's too bad, I like Air Wisconsin and have a fair share of friends flying there. I don't think it would shut Skywest down, but it might lead to their first ever furlough.

 

[norskman2]

UAL ain't goin' anywhere. I can't speak for what kind of impact all their cuts have had on the employees, but it seems they're doing an admirable job of meeting all their loan convenants and other performance requirements, which a lot of people doubted they would.

USAirways on the other hand....I'd be much more worried about all the U affiliated and wholly-owned regionals.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[ILStoMinimums]

I hope U can restructure completely and get back up to speed - sure would releave a lot of stress now-a-days.

 

[merikeyegro]

U appeared to renegotiate some of their gov't debt, so they may have some wiggle room. Problem is that they still aren't making any $. All recent financial reports have reported "progress" and "smaller-than-expected losses," but no earnings. You can only bleed so long...

UAL has boatloads of assets and, comparatively, not many obligations. They have something like $21B in total assets and about $6B in current liabilities. However, they have put off something like $4B in liabilities. This is perhaps why they have not yet emerged from the courts. I had my accounting professor go over the 10-K with me. She was pretty confused by it, as it is a bit opaque during Ch 11 proceedings. However, she did mention that they had a lot of accrued expenses that have not yet been paid. She concluded that they will likely end up paying people pennies on the dollar, thus killing their credit and purchasing power. She did say that it would likely just sell off assets to pay for obligations. Problem is that those assets today aren't worth much. Planes don't exactly command top dollar in 2004.

Check out the 10-K for UAL and try to decode it yourself.

http://10kwizard.ccbn.com/fil_list....&TC=FFFFFF&TC1=FFFFFF&TC2=FFFFFF&SC=ON&DF=OFF

Click on the PDF for 10-K and then click on Item 8 on the left side. Sorry for the clunky link.

For US Airways, head to page 68 of this link:

http://www.shareholder.com/Common/Edgar/701345/1193125-04-40367/04-00.pdf

Not a very rosy picture, if you can decipher the stuff. Nonetheless, its good to see some reorganization. U just doesn't seem to have the resources to really gain ground. They're losing less ground, but not gaining any.

Best of luck.

 

[DLconnection]

US Airways Express carriers

For that matter, what do u think is going to happen to the many carriers that rely on US Airways for their business? TransStates, Chq, Colgan, Piedmont, PSA, Allegheny, Mesa, etc.

Chq might try and put some of those 145s on the DL side. Not sue what the other carriers will do. It would be a mess.

Those of u who work for one of these carriers....any rumors?

 

[WhiteCloud]

Re: US Airways Express carriers

For that matter, what do u think is going to happen to the many carriers that rely on US Airways for their business? TransStates, Chq, Colgan, Piedmont, PSA, Allegheny, Mesa, etc.

Many of these companies would simply pick up a lot of the flying that US Airways currently flys. Same with UAL. If they go belly up, there would be a lot of routes and customers to compete for.

 

[Reebo]

Re: US Airways Express carriers

For that matter, what do u think is going to happen to the many carriers that rely on US Airways for their business? TransStates, Chq, Colgan, Piedmont, PSA, Allegheny, Mesa, etc.

Chq might try and put some of those 145s on the DL side. Not sue what the other carriers will do. It would be a mess.

Those of u who work for one of these carriers....any rumors?

Trust me, the 13 RJs we fly for U can easily be transfered over to UA or AA if U were to sink. In my 4 plus yrs at TSA ive flown planes that have had multiple paint jobs, UA,AA,DL,US, and even TW. The only thing that remains the same is that uncle hulie still gets paid.

 

[SWEMB120]

SkyWest would become a major airline!

 

[ArcticFlier]

Hmmmmmm rumors.............. or opinions......... UAL comes out of BK and DAL files by July..................

YMMV

AF

 

[Tug Driver]

Uniteds pain is Skywest gain...

 

[ILStoMinimums]

SkyWest would become a major airline!

That is possible though, isn't it? They'd have a large of planes to choose from!

 

[General Lee]

articflyer,

Good guess. Too bad the stock holders would rip our CEO and everyone else involved a "new one" due to the fact that we have "too much" cash to file currently......Maybe next year....
Good night!

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ArcticFlier]

How much money did DAL lose last quarter? Might be sooner than you think, no?

~Excerpted from Atlanta Journal Constitution~

Standard & Poor's has downgraded Delta Air Lines' debt, saying the Atlanta-based carrier likely will continue to have the industry's heaviest losses as its cost-cutting talks with its pilots remain stalled.


S&P also cited Delta's warning late last week that it expects a $400 million first-quarter loss, $50 million to $100 million higher than its earlier estimates.

S&P dropped its rating on Delta's debt, which was already in junk bond status, from "B+" to "B-." The firm also said it lowered its ratings by a greater extent on some debt issues backed by Delta aircraft but didn't provide details. Lower debt ratings can raise the cost of borrowing.

S&P analyst Philip Baggeley said it "appears increasingly likely" that any concession deal between Delta and its pilots, the highest-paid in the industry, will not come before regular contract talks start this summer, probably delaying progress further.

"Management is insisting on a contract that matches those achieved by airlines in or at the edge of bankruptcy," S&P said in a statement, "while the pilots union is offering much more modest reductions."

Delta asked for a 30 percent pay cut and other concessions, while the union has offered a 9 percent pay cut and to forgo a 4.5 percent pay raise in May.

S&P said Delta pilots' pay is about 60 percent higher than restructured contracts at other carriers such as American and United. A captain of a narrow-body jet typically makes about $225,000.


Cincinnati Business Courier Article




articflyer/ArcticFlier..............it's close.

AF not af

 

[General Lee]

Have you ever heard of paper losses? Like Aircraft Depreciation? That way they can claim losses and not burn cash. We still have near $2.9 billion in cash, and this last loss was during our slowest quarter. I am not saying it won't ever happen, but it will take awhile. Notice how they really want those pilot pay cuts, but won't cut any non-union wages....that is strange, eh? And, they also pre-funded the pensions early this year--with extra cash from a bond sale ($325 million) to one buyer---Morgan Stanley. Why would Morgan Stanley invest that much money into an airline destined to fail? That would be a stupid investment.....Gotta think there chief---and those local papers always side with management......They are the ones who invest in ads....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ArcticFlier]

Okay smart guy....................do you piss away the entire $2.9 billion before you admit your business model sucks or do you suck it up and do it sooner?

BTW the only people that can call me 'chief' do not include you.

AF

 

[lawest]

SW

Really guys.....what would happen to SKYW if United goes belly up??? I am very concerned about this because I just got hired by SKYW.
Also....what are the chances of United going belly up????
I know it's all opinions but what does everyone hink

 

[Q200_FO]

SkyWest would become a major airline!

I can see it now, coast to coast in a CRJ200 50 seater.

 

[ILStoMinimums]

If UAL did shutdown, they at first could pick up many of the shorthaul routes in RJ's, and possibly acquire the parked UAL planes for larger and longer capacity flights - does this scenario make sense?

Lets stay on topic please.

 

[vmc-hound]

if ual or dal goes under it's going to flood the market with pilots and the "GROWTH" that was suppossed to happen will not...