How soon before the industry "stablizes"

[smellthejeta]

Actually our labor cost as a percent of total cost is "industry leading". While this statistic is tweaked by our overall low costs it cannot be over emphasized that our low cost structure is not the result of underpaid or overworked labor.

I think this is the point where "pilot" and "labor" should stop being interchanged. I made more ramping for ACA than your rampies do... I looked at a job at BWI and couldn't believe how little those guys got paid -- in comparison to the rest of the industry. Your rampers work harder than we ever did, and for not much money. My point is that there is at least one sector of your labor force that is paid less than most in the industry.

Our growth is steady and continues, but it is probably less that you think ... 6-7% a year. Yes if we stopped all together our CASM would rise, but not by much. Don'tforget that growth costs too.
A comparison of senority lists to network carriers would not very appropriate as they all still have folks on the street , so of couse we'd look to be a junior work force - the legacy carriers don't have any junior people left! That is not really a reflection of how "mature" WNs labor force is, but would end up being a contest to see which airline had laid the most people off. I am proud to say we'd lose that contest.

That is exactly my point with the network carriers -- and it's a position like that that leaves them ripe for the picking, ala ACA/Indy Air (btw, I haven't worked for them in two years) who is capping their Bus pilots at Year 2 pay to keep costs lower. Indy couldn't have come around at a better time, at least from the standpoint of their ability to fend off their competitors. The original thread asked when this industry will stabilize -- and part of it will be when the cost structures of a startup and existing carrier are closer together. My point with growth is that growth in and of itself keeps labor costs lower than they would be if the carrier wasn't growing. I know it sounds as if I'm stating the obvious and making a stupid point, but the relatively high labor costs of the network carriers (because of the furloughs) is a big part of what's screwing them right now.

If we "get ours" (and we could) it won't be because our labor force matures (I still argue that it is mature) or even that we stop growing. It will be because too many of us fall in the trap of looking out for number one. I believe how the pilot group behaves during the upcoming negotiations will say a lot about weather WN will continue on strong or start to falter.

I think you're 100% correct. One of my biggest gripes about ALPA (yes, I know you have your inhouse SWAPA) is that they seem to spend more time caring about today's paycheck and not enough about tommorrow's career (the longterm health of the company who actually provides the paycheck). I also think that your efficiencies that are unique to your carrier will give you leverage against your rising labor costs when you stop growing (and that WAS my initial point).

In the end the point I really want to foot stomp is don't be fooled into thinking that SWA's advatages lie in cheap labor. It just isn't true. We do have a productive work force, and we do have some great systematic efficencies. But when your manegment comes around and says they can't make money because you are overpaid .... it might be part of the story, but the truth is they don't have a plan to make money in a deregulated environment. That is not WNs fault and it isn't because the pilots (or any labor group) at WN are undercutting the industry or racing to the bottom.

Shon I am sorry we hijacked your thread - I promise I am done.

I know I said this earlier in the same post, but your ramies' pay does suck. That point aside, your company does a lot of things well, and if you can actually make money on those $38 LAS-LAX runs, I do hope you succeed and can continue to offer fares like that. I can't (and won't) blame your company for what they do, because they do exactly what I would do in the same position.

The original post asked when this industry will stabilize, and my point is that a big step will be when a startup carrier's costs are approximately equal to those of an existing carrier. One major step that has to be done is make labor costs of a startup equivalent to those of an existing carrier. For that to happen (and this is just a part of it), the status quo of pay based strictly on company seniority has to be done away with.

 

[~~~^~~~]

The industry hasn't stabilized, nor will it... It is Morphing.

Technology has brought us the regional jet, and things will never be the same. Look for low paid pilots flying 70-90 seat regionals in all of our futures.

I respectfully disagree. The first "regional jet" was the DC-9, configured with 62 seats. It sold well and grew with fuselage plug, better wings and higher thrust engines - just like the CRJ.

The difference between current day and 1962 is ALPA's integrity on the issue of alter ego flying.