Hoeksema's right, AAI's business plan is failing

[gt1900]

Its not repeatable...

 

[CitationLover]

Its not repeatable...

source? if they buy more in 2008 they cannot do this again? more on the subject that i do not quite understand.
http://www.nysscpa.org/cpajournal/2003/0403/features/f044003.htm
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~igiddy/fas133.htm

excluding the fuel hedge adjustment their loss was in line with expectations (including $2.6 million for "defense" against airtran). he clearly doesn't want to sell, yet you all seem incredulous at this. of course he is going to make the books as rosy as possible. you don't think joe is doing the same with his route projections at MKE and MCI?

 

[Wesb737fo]

source? if they buy more in 2008 they cannot do this again? more on the subject that i do not quite understand.


excluding the fuel hedge adjustment their loss was in line with expectations (including $2.6 million for "defense" against airtran). he clearly doesn't want to sell, yet you all seem incredulous at this. of course he is going to make the books as rosy as possible. you don't think joe is doing the same with his route projections at MKE and MCI?

I wouldn't say I was "incredulous"...but more "curious". TH not wanting to sell is obvious, but that's not the point, the point is what is best for the share holders.

Showing 8 mil profit from fuel hedging is great and it may be "repeatable" but at some point you have to make an operational profit.

Hedging allowed SWA to keep their prices low, so as their hedge prices creep up, they can raise their ticket prices to offset. Since MEH already charges a premium for great service (no argument there), how do they cope with diminishing hedge positions? Can they raise fares and still grow the business?

I'm not really excited one way or the other. At some point this thing will be resolved. I suppose if you fly for Skyways, there is concern for the unknown, but if the buyout happens I don't think AAI will do the same thing ATA did with C8 after the SWA codeshare agreement. I've been fired, furloughed, and bankrupt in this business. I'll just sit back and see what's next.

 

[CitationLover]

I wouldn't say I was "incredulous"...but more "curious". TH not wanting to sell is obvious, but that's not the point, the point is what is best for the share holders.

well technically TH's job is to run the company. the Board should be looking out for the share holders. this will be voted upon at the shareholders meeting, it is up to them. you guys make it sound like all the shareholders are idiots and can't tell the "gimmicks" from reality. i know where 5% of the shares votes are going (octavian), do you know where the other 95% are going?

besides if your mgmt team is correct, it's in the bag anyways and a moot point.

 

[gt1900]

No I don't think Joe is being "rosie" with the route projections.. And neither does TH.. He even said that......... My point in all this was that TH made himself look like an idiot when he blasted AAI for 2 quarters of consecutive losses and said that "Airtran's business plan is broken".. Pretty brave comment when you consider the fact that AAI is one of the very few that has continued to make money for the last 7 years.. Midex certainly can't say the same thing.. When TH and SK blasted AAI for buying too many 737's and not having a place for them, they burried themselves a little deeper.. IVe been told that AAI could sell every 737 build slot they have and make 3-4 million per slot..They bought the planes when Boeing was struggling and got a hell of a price on the 737's.. Hmm buy low and sell high? Hell, to me thats great business.... BUT, according to AAI's CP who I talked to recently, AAI may be looking for more 737's.. Plus, AAI is on the advisory commitee for the replacement of the 737.. So TH and CS made themselves look like they were out of the loop, something I guarantee you shareholders will notice.. Yet they continue to dig themselves deeper and deeper. Hell, the least they could do would be to talk to AAI and see what happens.. But the stance they are taking by buring their heads in the sand could very well be the reason this thing eventually goes through...

 

[FlyWolf]

I think its about time TH and the BoD sat down and negotiated with airTran, that is just my own opinion (obviously for selfish reasons ie. seeing a left seat before age 60 or is it age 65 now)

Just can't understand why so many pilots are against the merger and walking around talking about the "stable" and spreading a lot of untrue rumors. whats wrong with having one strong company with good job security for everyone, whats wrong with combining Midwest great product with Airtran strong market position and financial stability.

Again that is just my own position, maybe I am wrong but maybe I am not.

If you'r one of our new hires, I can tell you that Midwest is still a great airline to work for.

 

[CitationLover]

If you'r one of our new hires, I can tell you that Midwest is still a great airline to work for.

as would be air tran. my experience with mergers is listening to 18yr ex-TWA'ers. needless to say they are all negative.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

On Apr 12 Goldman Sachs told Midex that Airtran's offer wasn't good enough.

The fuel hedge was for 90% of their fuel required for 2007.

cliff
GRB

 

[Lear70]

Well that answers the question.

They took an entire year's worth of fuel hedging and accounted for it in one quarter to make their balance sheet look better.

Wonder if they can keep that going year after year. Would be nice to get that kind of fuel savings, seeing as it's spiked EVERYWHERE we go (the cost of fuel at origination and destination fields are printed on our releases at AirTran so we can see if and when tankering is good or not).

 

[TV9Driver]

citationlover,

there are a lot of ex-twa'ers here at AAI and none of us want to f%ck Midex guys the way we were. I don't think you guys could pick a better airline to be acquired by - no one i've talked to has wanted anything other than a fair integration.