Hiring Trends

[SammyG]

It appears to me, at least from reading this forum, that a hiring trend is beginning to develop, slowly but surely.

Any educated estimates as to how long this trend will last? I get the feeling that I need to get all my training done really quick or I'll have to wait till the next hiring spree, and God knows how long it will be till that.

Thanks...

 

[FearlessFreep]

With 130 hours I would just continue working along on your ratings. You have to remember that other than flight instruction, traffic watch, pipeline patrol, etc., you are going to be pretty limited until you get at least 1200 hours which is the minimum amount of time for employment with a IFR 135 operator as a PIC. Most carriers that employ SIC's at this point in time require at least that required for PIC. I do not see that changing anytime soon. Things may move quickly in aviation, but I would not say that the industry would recover so quickly that in the amount of time it would take you to get your commerical rating and/or instructors certificate that the market will race past you.

I understand how you feel. I felt the same way. It is all timing, luck, skill and just how much work & effort you put into the process. Just do your best and keep plugging away at it.

As far as how long this perceived trend will last I can only say this, and this is from experience:

"The current hiring trend will last till you get furloughed."

FYI: I would not refer to the current state of the industry as beginning a recovery. There are too many uncertaincies at this point in time and a number of majors still have some furloughs scheduled.


Take Care, Good Luck & Fly Safe!

 

[jetblue320]

It appears to me, at least from reading this forum, that a hiring trend is beginning to develop, slowly but surely.

Any educated estimates as to how long this trend will last? I get the feeling that I need to get all my training done really quick or I'll have to wait till the next hiring spree, and God knows how long it will be till that.

Thanks...

Sammy,

A lot of us are still waiting for the "big hiring trend" that was supposed to happen in 1978 and never really materialized! No disrespect intended, this is a crazy business!

Good luck in your efforts.

 

[SammyG]

Thanks for the input. My plan (tentatively)...is to finish my BA Degree in History (to take care of the 4 year degree requirement right away). I should have this done by Dec '04 if everythin goes right. Hopefully I'll be able to get at least Commercial SEL done in that time, but realistically it looks like I'll have to wait till after graduation...take a huge a$$ loan...and get all the way through to CFIIMEI all in one swoop. After that ..I'll have to figure out how to gain multi-time and Turbine PIC, and all that other good stuff.

Once again this is all tentative...I'm sure I'll adjust this plan a lot as I go along.

 

[ivauir]

Sammy,
I think "hiring trend" would be a pretty bold statement right now. There are still thousands furloughed - some of those jobs may never reappear. But recalls will happen, and shortly thereafter new hiring. I belive that once things do turn, the majors won't be able to train people fast enough. That will be great news for everybody, no matter where in the process you are: if you aren't qualified for the majors at that point, some one who is will vacate a position that you CAN fill. Your plan sounds pretty solid: get that degree and keep your ear to the ground for flying opportunitues. Consider every flying job between now and the job you plan on retiring from as a part of your education and evaluate your opportunites based on that. For example: a job that pays great but you only fly 20 hours a month is not as good as one that pays worse, but you fly more. That and focus on solid safe habits - the way you fly a 172 will be the way you fly a 737 - be safe, follow the rules, and enjoy the process. Good luck!

 

[tbkane]

The post that said that the trend will happen till your furloughed is correct. I am living proof. I would not worry yet about a hiring spree. All the majors still have at least 1,000 pilots on furlough yet, and some UAL and AMR are still furloughing. There won't be a hiring boom like in 98-00 for another three to five years.

Contrary to some on this board, RJ growth alone will not require record hiring. The majors hiring is the only way to see huge hiring at the regionals and on downward.

Continue on your degree (make it not in aviation), and I think your well poised for the next hiring time.

 

[acaTerry]

RJ growth alone will not require record hiring. The majors hiring is the only way to see huge hiring at the regionals and on downward.

How right you are! The problem is that the regionals are expanding the RJ coverage of the U.S.
While this is financially helping out the majors by cost saving, the problem resulting from it is that there will be fewer routes available to the majors when they can come back. Hopefully, people will be fed up with RJ seat sizes and such ans so there will be enough WANT for the majors to elbow their way back in.

 

[WrightAvia]

FED HINTS AT JOBLESS RECOVERY-Beige book

Peter Morton, Washington Bureau Chief
Financial Post


Thursday, September 04, 2003

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Federal Reserve has joined economists in cautiously suggesting the economy is showing signs of improvement even though it is not producing jobs.

In its "beige book" survey, the Fed said yesterday the economy "continued to improve" over the summer with 11 of the Fed's 12 regional districts reporting improved business activity.

The anecdotal survey found retail sales were improving and there was a firming in manufacturing activity. As well, it said the massive Aug. 14 blackout had little effect on the economy. "Even in the Dallas district, where activity remains generally weak, contacts are said to be more optimistic."

The Fed's review follows recent economic data and views from economists that the U.S. economy is improving, with growth expected to hit a high of 5% this quarter, up from 3.1% during the second quarter and 1.4% during the first three months of the year.

Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto, said the latest beige book is more proof that the U.S. economy is looking stronger.

"The pace of layoffs is diminishing, jobless claims are trending downward and temporary employment is rising," she said. "This is essential to a sustained rebound in the economy."

 

[YaMama]

Well, unemployment always lags the rest of the economic indicators.

I guess especially so at the bottom of the aviation food chain, due to the amount of time it takes for the effects of hiring to ripple down through the system. I sort of visualize it like a big freight train (with the majors at the front), and your car won't start rolling until the couplings have snapped tight on all the ones in front of you. Even if the economy and hiring trends continue to grow on their current trajectory, I think it'll be at least a year before we really feel the effects down at the CFI level.

 

[FLB717]

No disrespect but I think it will be a LOT longer than a year for the CFI level to see anything other than another year of your studnets landing with the mains sideways. but at least it is more fun than flippin Burgers at Wendy's.

 

[YaMama]

Yeah, I meant that maybe in a year I'll actually be able to find work as a CFI. I'm delivering pizzas at the moment, hey that's more fun than flipping burgers too, though it sure ain't flying

But on a positive note, they're talking 5% growth this quarter It may take awhile to get this baby up to speed, but at least the engine's pulling right now.

 

[sidesaddle]

hiring

"The current hiring trend will last till you get furloughed."

AMEN !!

BTW I agree w/ tbkane, get that 4 year degree in something besides aviation. Good luck.

 

[skyward80]

I second that! I have an aviation-related business degree. Where am I after my recent lay-off? Sitting here as a substitute teacher at my old high school waiting for the time to tick by. Of course, it's not all bad. I get to start flight training in the USAF this fall.

Lata!
Skyward80