Hello flyi.com (ACA)

[General Lee]

How many of the ACA--United Express passengers in IAD were connecting onto United mainline flights? I read that Ryan will be flying 4 A320s for you in the Spring, which means not much frequency for the transcon flights. I just wonder how much feed you will get from your own RJs?

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[46Driver]

General,
I heard that 60% of the ACA traffic at IAD is connecting from one CRJ to another. An additional 20% of the traffic is flying into IAD on us and then back out (out and in) So in other words, the large majority of United traffic is United Express traffic on ACA.

 

[canyonblue]

I'll second the non-UA pax. When I flew at ACA it was very common to have passengers that NEVER connected to a UAL flight. Many times flying the CRJ out of LGA I would have to request ballast as the A/C was loaded with 50 pax but only had 1 checked bag.

 

[Floyd94]

Re: What Routes

I hope they kick A$$. Good luck guys!

Ditto... Go get em boys!

 

[AA717driver]

In case no one noticed, EVERY job in aviation is a crap shoot. Even SWA(especially if they hire me ) CAN run into problems.

Pick what looks best and where you think you would be happy and go there. If you are relatively happy where you are, stay there.

There is no "green grass" in aviation--it's just the color of the lenses we're looking through.TC

 

[Carl_Everett]

Re: Irrational Exuberance

And just where do you think all the UAX branded Mesa CRJ's are gonna' go? Everywhere you go, you will be followed by UA, stalking you, undercutting you. Sucks when someone undercuts ya', huh?

Yeah, UA's Ch. 11, but the US Gov. won't let the 2nd largest carrier in the US (in the world?) just up and die. ACA could vanish like a fart in the wind and nobody would really notice right now (other than some United passengers in WV and the Carolinas).

I want ACA to do well (if only so that Orenstein doesn't get his hands on NB's or all of ACA's cash so he can really grow like the cancer he is), but I think this might be a case of 'irrational exuberance'. Time will tell.

Can MESA come up with 87 more RJ's that fast? Can the entire UAX system come up with 87 RJ's that fast?

One more point to consider. UAL cut frequency big time to many CRJ cities out of IAD. Cities like RDU and SAV come to mind initially. So UAL may be able to match service to cities, but no way will they be able to match frequency. Flight time options are just as big as ticket price in this industry.

 

[Sniper@YourFeet]

Re: Re: Irrational Exuberance

Flight time options are just as big as ticket price in this industry.

Really? See the 'What Passenger's Want' Poll

 

[Carl_Everett]

Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exuberance

Really? See the 'What Passenger's Want' Poll

Yeah, that's a scientific poll. I'll send a link to that one to the Sr. Director of Marketing. Looks like ACA has it all wrong.

A businessman that could travel up and down the East Coast in one day and be back in time for dinner will pay an extra 20-50 bucks to fly on "I", rather than driving 2-4 hours around the Beltway in rush hour traffic. Like I said before this isn't some new idea. ACA had been doing this prior to fee-per-departure (except for the low ticket cost part) for years. Plus they made money doing it.

 

[Sniper@YourFeet]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exuberance

A businessman that could travel up and down the East Coast in one day and be back in time for dinner will pay an extra 20-50 bucks to fly on "I", rather than driving 2-4 hours around the Beltway in rush hour traffic.

Who flies on the NYC-DC shuttle? It ain't guys who pay for tickets, it's guys who use the miles they build on the shuttle for upgrades and free tickets to exotic locals.

ACA will have, what, 4 busses flown by Ryan? What could you possibly offer a price-insensitive traveler?

I just don't get how this will work yet.

 

[Carl_Everett]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exuberance

Perhaps you need to reaccquaint yourself with who flies on the NYC-DC shuttle. It ain't guys who pay for tickets, it's guys who use the miles they build on the shuttle for upgrades and free tickets to exotic locals.

ACA will have, what, 4 busses flown by Ryan? What could you possibly offer a price-insensitive traveler?

Perhaps you need to reaccquaint yourself with the USAIR/DELTA Shuttle's route structure. If "I's" only routes were IAD-LGA and IAD-BOS, I'd be a little worried. However, the Shuttle doesn't go to RDU, CAE, SAV, JAX, ALB, etc. So I think it should work out just fine.

Do you ever read press releases? I will get its Airbusses in Sept of 04, with 1st revenue in Nov 04. Those 4 busses will be flown until I starts getting its own.

I haven't seen you comment on AirTran, don't they have Ryan busses flying right now? Has it hurt them?

 

[Sniper@YourFeet]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exube

Awww man, you got my original text! I even edited my post before your reply was psoted b/c I though it wasn't professional, but man, you grabbed it right off the board so quick, now I look ike a jerk - exposed for who I really am?

If "I's" only routes were IAD-LGA and IAD-BOS, I'd be a little worried. However, the Shuttle doesn't go to RDU, CAE, SAV, JAX, ALB, etc. So I think it should work out just fine.

That's where your busses are gonna' fly to? See, if you send a bus there, then maybe you got something. But if it's just a CRJ - you can paint it and call it whatever you want, but it's still a CRJ. Why fly your CRJ when I could fly a UAX one (I'm betting UA will match fares)?

I haven't seen you comment on AirTran, don't they have Ryan busses flying right now? Has it hurt them?

Nope. I don't think the issue is that your busses are Ryan, but that you only have 4 of them for the first 10 months. How do you fend off UAL, Mesa/UAX, jetBlue, AirTran, US Air, Southwest, and Delta with only 4 NB's? Yeah, you have tons of CRJ's, but that's like having muskets against a fleet of tanks.

I'm out for a bit on this. I don't like how this is turning into a back-and-forth b/t us.

 

[Carl_Everett]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Irrational Exube

That's where your busses are gonna' fly to? See, if you send a bus there, then maybe you got something. But if it's just a CRJ - you can paint it and call it whatever you want, but it's still a CRJ. Why fly your CRJ when I could fly a UAX one (I'm betting UA will match fares)?

Those cities will not be busses(Maybe one or two a day to large markets like RDU). How can UA match a 50-100 dollar fare to every single RJ city? They charge 70% more than that right now and claim UAX still can't make a profit. Plus out of CH. 11, it will be difficult to keep fares low. They need to show profit and cannot afford to price match. UAX RJ cities out of IAD will not/ cannot have the frequency that Independence will. It will be difficult to match ACA's RJ fleet size, as UAX will not have enough aircraft or gate space (at IAD). I am speaking about this in terms of the next two years.

Nope. I don't think the issue is that your busses are Ryan, but that you only have 4 of them for the first 10 months. How do you fend off UAL, Mesa/UAX, jetBlue, AirTran, US Air, Southwest, and Delta with only 4 NB's? Yeah, you have tons of CRJ's, but that's like having muskets against a fleet of tanks.

I'm out for a bit on this. I don't like how this is turning into a back-and-forth b/t us.

The plan will be to start slowly until they start gettting the NB's. ACA is hoping that they can come to an agreement with UAL on a phaseout plan. Maybe like 20 RJ's a month. Who knows on that one.

Take jetBlue, and Southwest out of the equation for now. Management has said they will not be competeing with them. USAIR and UNITED are close to or in CH 11. They will be hard pressed to wage a full scale war right now. We could face stiff competition from Airtran. When jetBlue gets the EMB's in a few years, ACA should start to worry.

Now this is what the CEO said, and don't take it to mean I believe it...Those smaller cities cannot afford 737 type aircraft and keep the frequency that an RJ can. He believes the shorter haul markets compete with departure costs and not CASM. While a 737 could maybe have 2 flights a day to SAV (300 pax), a CRJ could have 6-8 flights a day to SAV (300-400) pax and still be cheaper. I don't know the exact numbers but for comparison's sake lets say that it costs $10,000 for any 737 flight under 1.5 hours. Let's also say it costs $2,000 for any CRJ flight under 1.5 hours. You could run 8 CRJ flights cheaper than 2 737 flights and still carry more passengers. You will also offer a wide range of flight times. Combine that with a hub that allows the same frequency out of IAD to other cities and maybe you have something.

 

[AceCrackshot]

Just as a quick frequency aside...WN builds market share on freq, not necessarily on fares...f.ex., fares on MCI-MDW are basically competitive with UA/AA fares MCI-ORD, WN just does it a bazillion times a day and has been siphoning off pax for about 5 years.
Frequency kills, and can make you competitive with the high end business traveler without service/freq. flyer/fare issues even coming into play. Just my .02.

The only real competition IA will have is WN in BWI, and the RJ will provide feed that WN lacks. WN's feed in BWI for years was USAir express. Time will tell. UA doesn't have an exactly sterling record facing LCC hub assaults. See also, F9 in DEN.