Time will tell. Midwest was slowly making inroads in the Chicago suburbs. I don't know if they (or anyone else) will stay focused on that area. If they respond to non-sunshine destinations, that will be more of a mark. Carrying a bunch of people to low yield markets won't be enough to claim victory.
I'm going to shoot another hole in one of your theories that MKE and the northern suburbs of Chicago is a market that no one will stay focused on. Over 7.96 million people passed through MKE last year a trend that has been increasing over the last several decades.
http://www.anna.aero/2009/07/24/midwest-becomes-republic/
The last several months have seen record amounts of travelers using MKE.
WALKER ANNOUNCES A RECORD OCTOBER FOR GENERAL MITCHELL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Mitchell Moves Up to 28th in Number of Cities Served Nonstop
MILWAUKEE (November 24, 2009) - Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker announced today that October 2009 was the busiest on record for that month at General Mitchell International Airport. The October total of 705,989 passengers was an increase of 21.15 percent over last October's 582,722 passengers, and was the first time more than 700,000 passengers used the airport in the month of October.
Walker noted that there were 123,662 more airline seats into and out of Milwaukee this October compared to last, and 123,267 more passengers. "Wisconsin and northern Illinois passengers have enthusiastically welcomed the new low-fare flight options out of Mitchell, filling just about every seat the airlines added in October," he said.
Airport Director Barry Bateman said, "With 48 markets, Mitchell International has moved up to 28th among U.S. airports in number of markets served nonstop, according to new data published by the Brookings Institute." Mitchell's rank in a similar 2004 study was 34th. "This ranking means that more nonstop markets are served out of Milwaukee than out of other Midwestern cities, such as Nashville; Pittsburgh; Indianapolis and Columbus, and out of medium-sized cities elsewhere in the U.S., including Portland, OR; Austin; New Orleans; San Diego; Raleigh/Durham; Albuquerque; San Antonio and Hartford, CT," Bateman said. He noted that competition has heated up at the airport since Southwest Airlines launched service on November 1st and AirTran and Midwest have added flights.
The average airfare out of Milwaukee was lower than 75 other U.S. airports, according to recently released U.S. Department of Transportation statistics for 2nd Quarter 2009. Mitchell's average fare was about $44 less than O'Hare's and $28 less than the nation's average fare.