GW Bush: No More Gas and Oil!

[atpcliff]

Hi!

This info is from this Air Cargo World article:
http://www.aircargoworld.com/regions/northam_0405.htm

This first guy isn't a Liberal or a Democrat or a Tree-Hugging Green. He's the CEO of the US Air Transporation Association. The second guy is that well known Left-Liberal-Radical, President GW Bush. Thirdly we have Gary Chase, a senior airline analyst at Lehman Brothers.

CEO Jim May:
"...
Some airline industry representatives are forecasting if fuel prices continue their upward ascent. "Sixty dollar oil isn't going to shake the airline industry out, it's going to shake it to death," says U.S. Air Transport Association President and CEO Jim May, the keynote speaker at last month's AirCargo 2005 conference in San Diego.
...
May notes that fuel costs "are out of our control. … We need to do something to encourage this president to take the lead in doing something about the price of oil. If we move to $60 oil, it will spell the end of this industry as we know it."

As I kept reading, I almost fell out of my chair! I actually agree with GW on something! (actually, I also agree with him that we need to overhaul the US tax system)
Here is GW:
"...
But Bush said that, ultimately, the U.S. and other developed nations must look to rely less on oil and more on other energy sources. "We've got to use our technology to over time evolve away from reliance upon oil and gas," he said, adding that he wants Congress to develop "a comprehensive energy plan … that encourages conservation and (finding and developing) alternative sources of energy."

Heeeeeers Gary!
"...
Says Chase, "The historical volatility of oil says a collapse in oil prices is unlikely. There's a greater chance (the price of crude oil will rise) above $60 (per barrel) than fall below $40 based on the way the commodity has traded historically.

"The airline business is restructuring. But in the face of energy costs, it's not enough. At $55 (per barrel) for oil, we've got a likelihood of further financial problems for the airline industry."

I appreciate your comments and opinion, pro and con.

Make a nice day for yourself!
Cliff
YIP

PS-I really like my job, and don't want to have to give it up because my airline can't afford the fuel for our current fleet size.

 

[mzaharis]

First off, the ATA will try to play up the most apocalyptic scenario for their own benefit, as they desire lower oil prices. They're a lobbying group, so they are going to deliver "doom and gloom" to keep pressure on the government to "do something." There may be some truth to what they're saying, but they're going to act it up more than an NBA player trying to get a foul on the other team.

Bush is mouthing the same generalizations on alternative energy that any politician would. I wouldn't make too much of it. Seems that he isn't too implacably opposed to foreign oil (this link is the primary reason why I'm responding).

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/04/25/bush.saudi/index.html

The Lehman guy has a bit more credibility - it's in his best interest to be accurate (although investment houses inevitably have their own axes to grind).

I'm just getting old enough to remember that commodities trends do not always continue indefinitely. I'm no expert - I can say "Hubbert Peak" without going "huh?", but I'm certainly no oil analyst. I just remember seeing enough people who are supposedly experts blow their predictions that I don't take any person's word as gospel - positive or negative. My prediction is more short-term pain, followed by a long-term decrease in prices as consumption responds (slowly) to price pressure (let's all go out and trade in our Expeditions for Priuses!), and more oil comes on line, responding to demand.

 

[pilotyip]

Never again

Cheap gas is never coming back unless we go into a worldwide depression which would not do any of us any good. Worldwide demand is skyrocketing, China and India are becoming mass comsumers. They have very little domestic supply. To control demand prices have to go up. We saw this coming and bought a VW Jetta TDI last year (diesel) costs us about $40/mo in fuel for getting around. The US gov't should raise the taxes on gas to around $4.00/gal to reduce demand. [Give a tax credit from the windfall tax credits on fuel purchased by the airlines. This will make more people elect to fly than drive which will increase the demand for air travel. Thus creating a pilot shortage and driving up the price airlines have to pay for pilot services.]"only kidding" If the gov't had any sense they would have stablized oil at $40/barrel back in 1991 after Gulf I by putting a tariff on imported oil and then adjusting the traiff to maintain $40. This would have limited demand. It would have increased the drive for alternate energy source, it would have developed a domestic oil exploration. But don't worry the gov't has no balls to do this, because any pol with this foresight would never be reelected.