SmoovFlight
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Good News?
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This could potentialy be good news... especially in this industry.
Oil Seen Slumping in Second Half 2003
Sunday February 23, 9:38 AM EST
By Neil Chatterjee
LONDON (Reuters) - World oil prices now near two-year highs are set to slide 30 percent in the second half of the year after any U.S.-led war on Iraq, a Reuters poll found.
The survey of 14 oil analysts and consultants, undertaken on Feb. 10-21, projects prices dropping nearly $10 to $22.46 a barrel in the second half of 2003, from $32 a barrel now.
It forecasts $27.53 a barrel for the first half of the year and gives a 2003 average of $24.30, down from $25.03 in 2002. Brent so far this year has averaged $30.98, forcing many analysts to revise forecasts higher.
Prices are expected to slump in the second half after being boosted in recent months by a strike in Venezuela and fears of an attack on Baghdad.
"Once war is over, it will come down pretty sharpish, and Venezuela will be less of a factor," said Matthew Parry of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Analysts expect prices to slide after a short war in the next few months, a projection which, if borne out, would provide a welcome stimulus to a world economy struggling for growth as energy costs stay high.
"Most people are working on the basis of a big slide later on -- the economic impact will be beneficial," said John Waterlow of consultants Wood Mackenzie.
"The economy needs something to give it a boost -- the simplest way is an oil price drop."
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven wealthiest nations met in Paris on Friday to discuss what can be done to stop the rot in the global economy, following a poor set of U.S. economic data on Thursday.
Economists estimate every $10-a-barrel rise in oil over a year cuts world growth by 0.5 percentage points.
Oil prices have spiralled on worries that conflict with Iraq could spread in the Middle East, which supplies around one third of the world's oil.
First quarter prices have also been boosted by the prolonged strike in Venezuela, which has slashed oil shipments from the world's fifth biggest exporter.
Analysts have upped their price forecasts for the year by about $1.50 a barrel, over six percent, in the past month as the 11-week-old strike helped reduce U.S. crude inventories to 27-year lows.
"The Venezuela strike has tightened stocks considerably, and there'll be a need for stock building in the second quarter," said analyst Lawrence Eagles of brokers GNI-Man.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said this month that it expected U.S. crude oil to stay above $30 a barrel for the rest of the year, though most analysts see oversupply by the fourth quarter.
OPEC COMPLIANCE?
Oil demand growth will be too sluggish to cope with the increased supply once Venezuelan production recovers and Iraqi output resumes after a war, they said, while non-OPEC countries' output is also on the up.
Differences in second half price forecasts depended on the extent to which oil cartel OPEC could control its production limits.
"We think there will be a significant fall off because of new capacity from the likes of Algeria and Nigeria, which will put increasing strain on OPEC cohesion," said Richard Savage of Bank of America.
"We think it will be higher for longer -- our view is that OPEC can control prices between $22-$28 in the medium term," said an analyst at another bank, which revised its figures upwards this week.
©2003 Reuters Limited.
Oil Seen Slumping in Second Half 2003
Sunday February 23, 9:38 AM EST
By Neil Chatterjee
LONDON (Reuters) - World oil prices now near two-year highs are set to slide 30 percent in the second half of the year after any U.S.-led war on Iraq, a Reuters poll found.
The survey of 14 oil analysts and consultants, undertaken on Feb. 10-21, projects prices dropping nearly $10 to $22.46 a barrel in the second half of 2003, from $32 a barrel now.
It forecasts $27.53 a barrel for the first half of the year and gives a 2003 average of $24.30, down from $25.03 in 2002. Brent so far this year has averaged $30.98, forcing many analysts to revise forecasts higher.
Prices are expected to slump in the second half after being boosted in recent months by a strike in Venezuela and fears of an attack on Baghdad.
"Once war is over, it will come down pretty sharpish, and Venezuela will be less of a factor," said Matthew Parry of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Analysts expect prices to slide after a short war in the next few months, a projection which, if borne out, would provide a welcome stimulus to a world economy struggling for growth as energy costs stay high.
"Most people are working on the basis of a big slide later on -- the economic impact will be beneficial," said John Waterlow of consultants Wood Mackenzie.
"The economy needs something to give it a boost -- the simplest way is an oil price drop."
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven wealthiest nations met in Paris on Friday to discuss what can be done to stop the rot in the global economy, following a poor set of U.S. economic data on Thursday.
Economists estimate every $10-a-barrel rise in oil over a year cuts world growth by 0.5 percentage points.
Oil prices have spiralled on worries that conflict with Iraq could spread in the Middle East, which supplies around one third of the world's oil.
First quarter prices have also been boosted by the prolonged strike in Venezuela, which has slashed oil shipments from the world's fifth biggest exporter.
Analysts have upped their price forecasts for the year by about $1.50 a barrel, over six percent, in the past month as the 11-week-old strike helped reduce U.S. crude inventories to 27-year lows.
"The Venezuela strike has tightened stocks considerably, and there'll be a need for stock building in the second quarter," said analyst Lawrence Eagles of brokers GNI-Man.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said this month that it expected U.S. crude oil to stay above $30 a barrel for the rest of the year, though most analysts see oversupply by the fourth quarter.
OPEC COMPLIANCE?
Oil demand growth will be too sluggish to cope with the increased supply once Venezuelan production recovers and Iraqi output resumes after a war, they said, while non-OPEC countries' output is also on the up.
Differences in second half price forecasts depended on the extent to which oil cartel OPEC could control its production limits.
"We think there will be a significant fall off because of new capacity from the likes of Algeria and Nigeria, which will put increasing strain on OPEC cohesion," said Richard Savage of Bank of America.
"We think it will be higher for longer -- our view is that OPEC can control prices between $22-$28 in the medium term," said an analyst at another bank, which revised its figures upwards this week.
©2003 Reuters Limited.
WrightAvia
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- Posts
- 1,223
Palerider957
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2003
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- 975
If I was flying it would be good news!
greyhound
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2003
- Posts
- 200
GOOD NEWS?
WELL GREYHOUND IS HIRING!!!
START OUT IN THE LEFT SEAT...
MAKE ABOUT 32,000 IN YOUR FIRST YEAR.
IT'S ALL IFR(I FOLLOW ROADS)
PLENTY OF BASES THROUGHOUT THE U.S.A
NO TRAINING CONTRACTS AND $180.00 PER WEEK PER DIEM FOR THE SEVEN WEEK TRAINING COURSE. THEY PAY FOR THE HOTEL TOO.
UNTIL YOU GET CALLED BY AN AIRLINE OF COURSE!!
WELL GREYHOUND IS HIRING!!!
START OUT IN THE LEFT SEAT...
MAKE ABOUT 32,000 IN YOUR FIRST YEAR.
IT'S ALL IFR(I FOLLOW ROADS)
PLENTY OF BASES THROUGHOUT THE U.S.A
NO TRAINING CONTRACTS AND $180.00 PER WEEK PER DIEM FOR THE SEVEN WEEK TRAINING COURSE. THEY PAY FOR THE HOTEL TOO.
UNTIL YOU GET CALLED BY AN AIRLINE OF COURSE!!
SmoovFlight
Member
- Joined
- Jan 18, 2003
- Posts
- 12
greyhound
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2003
- Posts
- 200
smoovflight and beechnut
No, you don't actually need your CDL for greyhound.
All you need is to pass your written tests on commercial driving from your home state. That will be your learners permit. You can interview without it, but you will need it to start training.
Pass the interview, it's all easy questions about yourself. There is also a test which in my personal opinion, if your capable of flying an aircraft,you will not be intimidated by the questions. Again easy stuff like "Going north on a highway,you get off and make a right,which direction are you now traveling? easy!
Then they send you to a doctor and take a full DOT physical (they pay for it). Kind of like a second class medical for the FAA. Finally, if your background is clean they will call you in about 2-3 weeks.
Now comes the hard part.There seems to be a 75% washout rate in training.some people can never learn to drive a bus through a set of straight cones...in reverse, but mainly it's because people normally don't see the importance of learning regulations, keeping a log book, or "pre-flying" their bus. Again if your interested in the job of a pilot, you will most likely take the training seriously.
This job is no place to build flight hours, but it will condition you and your family to be on the go at any time, to anywhere within 400-500 miles away from your home.No cross country driving as alot of people believe.I'm home about every 2 days normally. The company lacks on the benefits side, and there is a possible strike in 2004. I'm obtaining my CFI this summer and it is goodbye for the road. Check it out in your neck of the woods, Greyhound has domiciles in practically every major city. Best places are N.Y. city, LAX, ORD,ATL, and DFW.And a lot others I missed. I personally don't see it as a career destination since I really want to fly commercially. Some people do.
( I can't believe i'm actually giving a gouge on Greyhound!
)
No, you don't actually need your CDL for greyhound.
All you need is to pass your written tests on commercial driving from your home state. That will be your learners permit. You can interview without it, but you will need it to start training.
Pass the interview, it's all easy questions about yourself. There is also a test which in my personal opinion, if your capable of flying an aircraft,you will not be intimidated by the questions. Again easy stuff like "Going north on a highway,you get off and make a right,which direction are you now traveling? easy!
Then they send you to a doctor and take a full DOT physical (they pay for it). Kind of like a second class medical for the FAA. Finally, if your background is clean they will call you in about 2-3 weeks.
Now comes the hard part.There seems to be a 75% washout rate in training.some people can never learn to drive a bus through a set of straight cones...in reverse, but mainly it's because people normally don't see the importance of learning regulations, keeping a log book, or "pre-flying" their bus. Again if your interested in the job of a pilot, you will most likely take the training seriously.
This job is no place to build flight hours, but it will condition you and your family to be on the go at any time, to anywhere within 400-500 miles away from your home.No cross country driving as alot of people believe.I'm home about every 2 days normally. The company lacks on the benefits side, and there is a possible strike in 2004. I'm obtaining my CFI this summer and it is goodbye for the road. Check it out in your neck of the woods, Greyhound has domiciles in practically every major city. Best places are N.Y. city, LAX, ORD,ATL, and DFW.And a lot others I missed. I personally don't see it as a career destination since I really want to fly commercially. Some people do.
( I can't believe i'm actually giving a gouge on Greyhound!
)
Beechnut
Ndugu's Foster Dad
- Joined
- Nov 27, 2001
- Posts
- 714
Outstanding!!!! I too laughed that you actually had some gouge on Greyhound. (Hey Mav, you have the number for that truck driving school?) But if things go further into the crapper, I think I may like to do that. I never was one for an office job and I had the opportunity to work on Prevoust (spelling?) coaches a few years ago. I thought it'd be fun to drive for a living for awhile.
Of course the all important question that any good airline guy would ask: What do they pay the first few years and what kind of work rules do they have?
Thanks!
S.
Of course the all important question that any good airline guy would ask: What do they pay the first few years and what kind of work rules do they have?
Thanks!
S.
greyhound
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2003
- Posts
- 200
Beechnut
In the first year,depending on location,you can make between $30,000 to $37000 per year. They start everyone out at $16.70 per driving hour, it's just a matter of how busy your base is.
You start out on the extra-board,that's the equivalent of being on reserve at an airline. You will go to every location normally served by your particular base. You will cover people who are sick or in case where more than one bus is needed on a schedule,you will cover those runs. When you arrive at your destination,you will call dispatch on their 800#,they will tell you to either stay at the hotel and get rested for a future opening that they anticipate,or they will allow you to go home as a passenger.They pay you $9.86 per hour while you are sitting down doing nothing going home. That's the only time you don't mind breaking down since you are on the clock until that bus pulls in.If you are the driver, you are paid the average time it takes to complete the run. Not exactly from the time you leave,until the time you arrive. Unfair we know!! When you arrive home ,you are back on the list,you are allowed your usual rest,then you are on call. You can determine when you will be called,but that takes some longer explaining. I can tell you that you will not have any fixed days off or fixed schedule,while you are on the extra-board.However, you are allowed to book off whenever you want.Your choice,the only thing they ask us for is to understand when the peek periods are.
Besides,when it is very busy,that's when you make money. When it is slow, they wouldn't care if you elected to not work in one week. You are pretty much an independent contractor. No boss when you are on the road, you are the PIC. You get your ocassional weirdos on your bus, there are communication breakdowns with dispatch, but for the most part, it is still a good job. Down the road (no pun intended), you will make $17.80 your second year, $18 something the third. top off at $20.25 your fifth year. The most you could dream of is $45-$50k for the rest of your life even when you hold a line, and that could take some time,(LAX)Currently 5 years to hold a line that pays about $30k,working 6 days a week!! Takes about 10 years to hold a well paying line. Up until then you will be working at different times,days, making quality of life an issue for some.You have to go with the flow, and understand the nature of the transportation business in that it changes constantly.
To sum it up, good job, especially for those who aren't office types like us, I also feel it is good training for future captains like us (not the flying part obviously). This job teaches you to operate with standard operating procedures,how to balance regulation compliance while still meeting passenger and company needs. You are responsible to to determine roadworthiness of your equipment, you must learn to be tactfull with mechanics, customer service,and professional in front of your passengers.(you don't have a cockpit door to hide under if you mess up and most people know the rules of the road and they will criticize you if they felt you were not safe and report you.) I have not had any of those problems.The greatest feeling for me is pulling into the gate(airport or bus depot) and knowing you did your job and re-united people with their family,friends, and co-workers after the rain, snow,fog etc...
Look into it, just realize it won't add any flight hours to your logbook. Good luck ,if you need more info let me know!
In the first year,depending on location,you can make between $30,000 to $37000 per year. They start everyone out at $16.70 per driving hour, it's just a matter of how busy your base is.
You start out on the extra-board,that's the equivalent of being on reserve at an airline. You will go to every location normally served by your particular base. You will cover people who are sick or in case where more than one bus is needed on a schedule,you will cover those runs. When you arrive at your destination,you will call dispatch on their 800#,they will tell you to either stay at the hotel and get rested for a future opening that they anticipate,or they will allow you to go home as a passenger.They pay you $9.86 per hour while you are sitting down doing nothing going home. That's the only time you don't mind breaking down since you are on the clock until that bus pulls in.If you are the driver, you are paid the average time it takes to complete the run. Not exactly from the time you leave,until the time you arrive. Unfair we know!! When you arrive home ,you are back on the list,you are allowed your usual rest,then you are on call. You can determine when you will be called,but that takes some longer explaining. I can tell you that you will not have any fixed days off or fixed schedule,while you are on the extra-board.However, you are allowed to book off whenever you want.Your choice,the only thing they ask us for is to understand when the peek periods are.
Besides,when it is very busy,that's when you make money. When it is slow, they wouldn't care if you elected to not work in one week. You are pretty much an independent contractor. No boss when you are on the road, you are the PIC. You get your ocassional weirdos on your bus, there are communication breakdowns with dispatch, but for the most part, it is still a good job. Down the road (no pun intended), you will make $17.80 your second year, $18 something the third. top off at $20.25 your fifth year. The most you could dream of is $45-$50k for the rest of your life even when you hold a line, and that could take some time,(LAX)Currently 5 years to hold a line that pays about $30k,working 6 days a week!! Takes about 10 years to hold a well paying line. Up until then you will be working at different times,days, making quality of life an issue for some.You have to go with the flow, and understand the nature of the transportation business in that it changes constantly.
To sum it up, good job, especially for those who aren't office types like us, I also feel it is good training for future captains like us (not the flying part obviously). This job teaches you to operate with standard operating procedures,how to balance regulation compliance while still meeting passenger and company needs. You are responsible to to determine roadworthiness of your equipment, you must learn to be tactfull with mechanics, customer service,and professional in front of your passengers.(you don't have a cockpit door to hide under if you mess up and most people know the rules of the road and they will criticize you if they felt you were not safe and report you.) I have not had any of those problems.The greatest feeling for me is pulling into the gate(airport or bus depot) and knowing you did your job and re-united people with their family,friends, and co-workers after the rain, snow,fog etc...
Look into it, just realize it won't add any flight hours to your logbook. Good luck ,if you need more info let me know!
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