atpcliff
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 4,260
Hi!
Peak oil will not be confirmed until after it has occurred. Gharwar is the #1 source of oil for the world, and it looks like it has peaked. If Saudi has peaked, then either global oil production has peaked, or it's close.
Once global oil production has peaked, prices will continually rise until oil is not longer used as a transportation fuel.
The following is information is from Mathew Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan So, for any of you who were thinking that Peak Oil is a Liberal/Commie/Green pile of bu!!shi!t, here's an oil insider to tell you that it's real.
Expert: Saudi oil may have peaked
"As oil prices remain above $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.
Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".
The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.
Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".
Saudi oil peaking?
"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."
Simmons believes Iran's oil production has also peaked. The technical term for damaging an oilfield by overproduction is rate sensitivity. In other words, if the oil is pulled out of the ground too fast, it damages the fragile geological structure of the field. This can make as much as 80% of the oil within the field unextractable. Of course, at the moment, virtually every producer is at full tilt. The most important amog them is Saudi Arabia; their Gharwar field is the world's biggest.
Field damage
"A whistleblower in Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's oil company, was first reported in The Washington Post. He had claimed that Aramco had been overproducing the giant Gharwar field and that if they did not slow down, they would damage the reservoirs.
"The faster you pull a reservoir, the faster you pull out all of the easy-to-produce oil," explains Simmons. "What happens is that you lose massive amounts of what the oil industry calls oil-left-behind still inside the field. These issues, as you can see, have been known about for years."
Overproduction
"In 1981 in their own book, Aramco and its World, something they give out to new employees and such, they openly talked about how maximising production would permanently harm their fields and that maximum production could not continue. They thought demand would fall and the fields would be sustained. Unfortunately that has not been the case."
The idea that Saudi Arabia could force its production up to 12mbpd or higher is met with scorn by Simmons.
"This is dangerous stuff," warns Simmons. "If we say they have not peaked and then they choose to further increase production, they will only hasten their field decline, and waste huge amounts of valuable oil into the bargain. And oil, as we are only now coming to realise, is the world's most precious resource."
Comments....
CLiff
YIP
Peak oil will not be confirmed until after it has occurred. Gharwar is the #1 source of oil for the world, and it looks like it has peaked. If Saudi has peaked, then either global oil production has peaked, or it's close.
Once global oil production has peaked, prices will continually rise until oil is not longer used as a transportation fuel.
The following is information is from Mathew Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan So, for any of you who were thinking that Peak Oil is a Liberal/Commie/Green pile of bu!!shi!t, here's an oil insider to tell you that it's real.
Expert: Saudi oil may have peaked
"As oil prices remain above $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.
Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".
The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.
Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".
Saudi oil peaking?
"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."
Simmons believes Iran's oil production has also peaked. The technical term for damaging an oilfield by overproduction is rate sensitivity. In other words, if the oil is pulled out of the ground too fast, it damages the fragile geological structure of the field. This can make as much as 80% of the oil within the field unextractable. Of course, at the moment, virtually every producer is at full tilt. The most important amog them is Saudi Arabia; their Gharwar field is the world's biggest.
Field damage
"A whistleblower in Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's oil company, was first reported in The Washington Post. He had claimed that Aramco had been overproducing the giant Gharwar field and that if they did not slow down, they would damage the reservoirs.
"The faster you pull a reservoir, the faster you pull out all of the easy-to-produce oil," explains Simmons. "What happens is that you lose massive amounts of what the oil industry calls oil-left-behind still inside the field. These issues, as you can see, have been known about for years."
Overproduction
"In 1981 in their own book, Aramco and its World, something they give out to new employees and such, they openly talked about how maximising production would permanently harm their fields and that maximum production could not continue. They thought demand would fall and the fields would be sustained. Unfortunately that has not been the case."
The idea that Saudi Arabia could force its production up to 12mbpd or higher is met with scorn by Simmons.
"This is dangerous stuff," warns Simmons. "If we say they have not peaked and then they choose to further increase production, they will only hasten their field decline, and waste huge amounts of valuable oil into the bargain. And oil, as we are only now coming to realise, is the world's most precious resource."
Comments....
CLiff
YIP
