Future of the Regionals - I am Calling It Here

[Cobraair75drvr]

Again little boys. No more scope will be given. That ship has sailed. Upgauging is happening all around and large portions of your fleets will be going to the graveyards to not be replaced. RJs will NEVER be at mainline because they are going away. Not today but sooner than you think. Will some be possibly swapped out in a 3 for 1 scenario? Maybe, but the days of the subcontractors growth are over. Now it's contraction and in some cases extinction. The saving grace for some/most of you is the coming attrition at the mainline. Most will get their chance, some will not. The contracts for the subs will be much tighter then in the past with many built in loopholes.

You ever see them make a funny face like they are about to throw up when you bring up putting the RJ's at mainline? Number 3 top 5 favorite things to do while a mainline guy is in the jumpseat.

I know I know I know. The other 4
1. Tell them you are getting married/are married and time how long it takes for them to tell you they are divorced and you will be soon too.
2. If it's a mainline pilot who introduces themselves as a "International Guy" and can't stop saying "International" when he talks about his job bring up as many US overnights as possible when he rambles about Paris, Johannesburg, Hong Kong (Austin, Salt Lake, San Fran). Extra points if their heads explode.
3. RJ thing from above
4. Ask them how the contract negotiations are going (they never know or care).
5. When they ask about why we burn the APU or have both engines running tell them "Oh we don't pay for that, mainline does."

 

[jynxyjericho]

Again little boys. No more scope will be given. That ship has sailed. Upgauging is happening all around and large portions of your fleets will be going to the graveyards to not be replaced. RJs will NEVER be at mainline because they are going away. Not today but sooner than you think. Will some be possibly swapped out in a 3 for 1 scenario? Maybe, but the days of the subcontractors growth are over. Now it's contraction and in some cases extinction. The saving grace for some/most of you is the coming attrition at the mainline. Most will get their chance, some will not. The contracts for the subs will be much tighter then in the past with many built in loopholes.

So you think the days of the 90 seat (76 seat really) RJ and the CRJ1000 or whatever giant Embraer RJ comes out is over? That's the first time I've heard that. Are you trying to say the day of the 50 seater is over with?

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Yes on the 50 and and much less total outsourced airframes going forward. Is it going to happen tomorrow? No, but overtime (5-10yrs) the consolidation of the mainlines into 3 will ensure much less need for sub 100 seat aircraft. And no, that won't be given up. I know it must be scary for the younger lifers. The older guys will ride it out into retirement, the junior capts. and your fo's will move on..

So you think the days of the 90 seat (76 seat really) RJ and the CRJ1000 or whatever giant Embraer RJ comes out is over? That's the first time I've heard that. Are you trying to say the day of the 50 seater is over with?

 

[jynxyjericho]

Yes on the 50 and and much less total outsourced airframes going forward. Is it going to happen tomorrow? No, but overtime (5-10yrs) the consolidation of the mainlines into 3 will ensure much less need for sub 100 seat aircraft. And no, that won't be given up. I know it must be scary for the younger lifers. The older guys will ride it out into retirement, the junior capts. and your fo's will move on..

Calling the end of sub-100 seat aircraft- we will have to see. It sure would be easier to believe if there were some evidence.

Going back to what we were talking about at first though:
If the business model supports a 30-50 seat aircraft, would you support outsourcing it again? Would you try, this time, to keep mainline pilots on those aircraft?

 

[skywdriver]

The assumption that the regionals will somehow operate on their own is a pipedream. As mentioned above, they get paid as long as the airplane departs. They know nothing about marketing, sales, and so on. They have no approved route structure. There is no way they will ever go out on their own. Filling seats on an airplane, and analyzing route structure is a totally different business than making sure an airplane gets from point a to point b. I am not saying the legacy management is doing a very good job of it, but at least they understand the business well enought to fill up the airplanes.

Of course there will always be a market for regional feed, but the regional industry will more than likely revert back to that - regional. There are a lot of city pairs that are flown with multiple RJ's per day, and there will be a reduction in frequency but bigger airplanes flying so same seats available. The writing is on the wall for the this, it is as bright as day. The only way we screw ourselves would be on scope, but with the exception of one captain I have flown with, everyone says that scope relief is a no vote, period.