Future of the Regionals - I am Calling It Here

[On Your Six]

I agree completely that there is a looming shortage of pilots. What you guys fail to comprehend (and I don't understand why) is that there is not necessarily a realtionship between wages and demand.

In the future there will be a demand for pilots willing to work long hours for low pay and no job security or retirement.

Wages will continue to fall.

Hmmm. USair's Parker is offering BK AA pilots a raise (DL's current rates plus 3%) which if accepted will flow over to the US pilots. DL's management asked for early contract talks (must want something), but that will lead to wage increases. And, UAL will eventually settle with their pilots (UAL MEC wants to strike it seems), which will give them a large raise. So, higher profits (for DL and UAL especially) eventually does trickle down to employees. You may be wrong.



Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[Freebrd]

lol you sound so like Boyd Oys putz

 

[IBNAV8R]

Here is my prediction. Markets will continue to exist. Those that can serve those markets best and still make a profit will remain in business. Those that cannot will shrink and/or concentrate on markets where they CAN make a profit or die off altogether. As long as people want to fly from smaller cities, there will be a regional market.

Now that the lines are blurred and only aircraft size is the real difference, eventually, the two or three remaining super-regionals will tire of getting screwed by their partners and go on their own. Majors could try to compete on those routes but how could they do it any more efficiently than before - unless they took even bigger concessions from their own pilots? Majors weren't PAYING regionals a fee-for departure out of the goodness of their hearts. They did it because regionals could do it much more efficiently.

"Majors" will do the flying that can fill up bigger planes and still make a profit - i.e. trans-con, hub-hub, and international - and hope there is no cabotage or outsource "code-sharing" with foreign carriers (You know the new global economy that certain parties are pushing for?). "Regionals" will do the rest - in whatever size/type airplane will do the job efficiently.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Dream on regional lifer. The subcontractors are going to shrink big time or cease to exist. The one's that survive will be a constant churn of "new" airlines such as Compass and many like them. The remaining subcontracted lift after the coming "cleansing" will be much smaller. Nothing more than a 5 year contract with the "real" airline with many performance requirments built in that with a little "schedule tweaking" by the mainline will cause the contract to be voided.

Here is my prediction. Markets will continue to exist. Those that can serve those markets best and still make a profit will remain in business. Those that cannot will shrink and/or concentrate on markets where they CAN make a profit or die off altogether. As long as people want to fly from smaller cities, there will be a regional market.

Now that the lines are blurred and only aircraft size is the real difference, eventually, the two or three remaining super-regionals will tire of getting screwed by their partners and go on their own. Majors could try to compete on those routes but how could they do it any more efficiently than before - unless they took even bigger concessions from their own pilots? Majors weren't PAYING regionals a fee-for departure out of the goodness of their hearts. They did it because regionals could do it much more efficiently.

"Majors" will do the flying that can fill up bigger planes and still make a profit - i.e. trans-con, hub-hub, and international - and hope there is no cabotage or outsource "code-sharing" with foreign carriers (You know the new global economy that certain parties are pushing for?). "Regionals" will do the rest - in whatever size/type airplane will do the job efficiently.

 

[Full of LUV]

Now that the lines are blurred and only aircraft size is the real difference, eventually, the two or three remaining super-regionals will tire of getting screwed by their partners and go on their own. Majors could try to compete on those routes but how could they do it any more efficiently than before - unless they took even bigger concessions from their own pilots? Majors weren't PAYING regionals a fee-for departure out of the goodness of their hearts. They did it because regionals could do it much more efficiently.

The only real difference between skywest and Delta is aircraft size????

What about sales and marketing? What about brand development?

Subcontractors get fee for departure contracts because they are providing a service (wet lease with dispatchers) and want to get paid regardless of how mainline does filling up the seats.

There has never been anything more "efficient" about the regionals except one thing, cheaper labor from TOP to Bottom of the company. Its not just pilots, its mechs, baggage, tickettakers, and cat ranchers. Regionals have been an end run around all of those pesky union positions / wages at the mainline.

Plus with subcontractors, you can "reset" your costs every few years by putting out a RFP and getting the subcontractors to bid against each other and any new upstarts.

They could compete for those routes????? They OWN those routes now, the wet lease subcontractors are just performing the service at a more affordable (overall) price. If oil remains above $100 or more, it remains to be seen when a 737 at mainline rates will become the better alternative to three RJ trips.

 

[outerlimits]

Dream on regional lifer. The subcontractors are going to shrink big time or cease to exist. .

This will happen right after peace in the Middle East.

 

[jynxyjericho]

This will happen right after peace in the Middle East.

Right after that Mainline will take back everything with their paint and put their pilots on it.

 

[outerlimits]

Right after that Mainline will take back everything with their paint and put their pilots on it.

Will never happen. I can not tell u how many times I have heard some senior pilot say they could care less about scope as it does not affect them

 

[jynxyjericho]

Will never happen. I can not tell u how many times I have heard some senior pilot say they could care less about scope as it does not affect them

You ever see them make a funny face like they are about to throw up when you bring up putting the RJ's at mainline? Number 3 top 5 favorite things to do while a mainline guy is in the jumpseat.

I know I know I know. The other 4
1. Tell them you are getting married/are married and time how long it takes for them to tell you they are divorced and you will be soon too.
2. If it's a mainline pilot who introduces themselves as a "International Guy" and can't stop saying "International" when he talks about his job bring up as many US overnights as possible when he rambles about Paris, Johannesburg, Hong Kong (Austin, Salt Lake, San Fran). Extra points if their heads explode.
3. RJ thing from above
4. Ask them how the contract negotiations are going (they never know or care).
5. When they ask about why we burn the APU or have both engines running tell them "Oh we don't pay for that, mainline does."

 

[relief tube]

I pray mainline doesn't cave again and accept higher individual paychecks while allowing this industry to take another dump on the profession.

Everyone at mainline should quiver when they see an RJ at a gate that used to have a 73 at it. Vote to keep that from continuing.