JBLU
Bolter X2,
Yes, the stock price is high right now and yes, that is a big part of the decision process to make a major move. However, the secret is in the timing if your stock option strike price is your main concern. Most certainly the stock will split very soon. I am not an insider (officially) but I am on the inside and I would reckon that it will be before the end of the year. In some respects, it might be a wash if you hire on with a high strike price and then the split follows shortly after. Rumor has it the split might be 3/1 this time!
Example 1:
You have a grant date of 12/1/03 with 6000 options @ $60.
The "value" of this grant is $360,000 and will cost you the same to exercise it all. On 12/15/03 the stock splits 2/1. You now have 12,000 shares @ $30 each or the same value of $360,000. Hopefully the stock rises back to it's original $60 per share soon (in it's short 17 month history it has done it once already) and then your value is $720,000. But regarldess of how many splits follow or what the ratio is your price to exercise your entire portfolio will remain at $360,000. Your strike price is now cut in half to $30 per share.
Example 2:
The stock is $60 and splits 2/1 on 12/15/03. You hire on with a grant date of > 12/15/03. You will be granted 6000 shares @ $30 per share which will have a value of $180,000 and cost you the same to exercise them all. Assuming the price rises to $60 as in Example 1, your value will rise to $360,000 which is half of the value of $720,000 but you only paid half as much for it. And again, it will always cost you $180,000 to exercise this portfolio example regardless of how many splits or the ratio of them. Your strike price will remain at $30 per share until the next split and will be adjusted accordingly.
The "wash" I spoke of is in how you cycle in. In example one, your portfolio is at a greater value initially, but cost you more over the life of it. In example two, you have to wait out one more split than in example one, but it cost you half as much for it. The best advice I can give you is to seek professional advice from someone who know about options, specifically Incentive Stock Options (ISO). Those are the kind that JB issues. The only bad part of seeking advice from a Pro is that they won't make the decision for you, which is what we REALLY want. Unless your advice comes from a qualified close friend. Even then, they probably want to stay friends!
I know you are probably a smart saavy guy that already knew the basics so please don't think I was trying to insult you with my elementary examples. I wasn't. I was just making a point.
The secret is in the cycle you fall into. Your statement about us "old JB guys" is true. Our stuff was a much better deal. But then again, it was a much greater gamble. It could have turned out to be worthless. Heck, wait until all the JB Bashers out there get ahold of this post and I assure you lots of them will chime in and say they WILL be worthless. Well, maybe there are right, maybe they aren't. One thing IS for sure. JBLU stock has defied every known current principal of the stock market. Every analyst will tell you that it is overrated, under valued, and a whole lot of other things. If that is so then why is it one of the hottest things out there? And, if you ask them off the record if they personally own any JBLU I would bet they do, or have and made a bundle!
Please bear in mind that in my examples above that the options do have a vesting schedule and other tax liabilities and limitations. Your mileage may vary...you know....
One thing is for sure, almost every JBLU guy that I talk to routinely (and that is a lot of them) they all say it boils down to one thing regardless of your strike price, they all say "Hey, it's free money".
If you really get scared thinking it's going to tank, sell what you can when you vest and walk away with it. That's the beauty of it, it's yours once you vest. Not under someone else's control like in a lot of the other airline pensions.
Hope this gives you some insight.
C Ya
