Further RJ Reductions.....

[Bavarian Chef]

For instance, a city served three times daily by a 70 seater will now be served twice by a 737. The approximate same number of seats will serve the city pair, but at a reduced CASM.

You sir, are a genius. Please email this to the CEO of any airline that flies those dreaded RJs, except of course Delta Connection to RIC from JFK, I would like to keep my commuting options open.



10 flights a day, 50 pax at a time ... or 5 flights a day, 100 pax at a time. Hmmm ... I think we have got something there. Sounds like a Guinness commercial --


BRILLIANT!
:beer:

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Three 70's = 210 seats, Two 737's = 270 seats need to check your math and I don't think there are many city pairs served by 10 50's a day. If that were the case then they should put a bigger plane on it.

 

[FDJ2]

That's not the same as ALL RJ's going bye-bye.

They're still be 70 and 90-seat RJ deliveries in the future.

The <50-seat segment of airline ops will decrease.
The >70-seat segment of airline ops will increase.

You're right, for now the 70-76 seat market is safe. Many multiple frequency 50 seat routes can be flown with less frequency with 70-76 seat jets. Also, the addition of first class seating increases the revenue potential.

In the cross hairs are the 50 seaters.

 

[pipe]

Three 70's = 210 seats, Two 737's = 270 seats need to check your math and I don't think there are many city pairs served by 10 50's a day. If that were the case then they should put a bigger plane on it.

See STL - ORD - STL

It is served by 730 million RJs operating on a completely random schedule each and every day.

PIPE

 

[FDJ2]

Sounds good in theory, but where are you going to get all these new 737's (or any narrow body aircraft) to replace the rj? New 737's are currently in pretty high demand.

They don't all necessarily need to be replaced. A large chunk of the capacity draw down in domestic flights will come from RJs. Frankly, many of these routes don't make economic sense with oil prices where they are at. If the market can't be flown profitably, in many cases it's best not to serve it.

 

[Cpt Oveur]

There's got to be a balance of how much domestic feed that is cut to the international growth. I don't think that cutting 50 seaters will be the answer. I think parking 50 seaters and adding props where they can and larger RJs will keep the int'l feed strong.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Simple economics will dictate the return of larger turboprops on feeder routes. Passengers may say that they do not like flying on them but in reality that factors far down their list of objectives when booking a ticket: somewhere after 1) Cheap airfare, 2) Cheap airfare, and 3) Cheap airfare.

They are ubiquitous in Europe. Americans will adapt.

PS: I think the ATR is a great ride.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

See STL - ORD - STL

It is served by 730 million RJs operating on a completely random schedule each and every day.

PIPE

Haaaaaaa. You funny man joe.

 

[Andy]

You sir, are a genius. Please email this to the CEO of any airline that flies those dreaded RJs, except of course Delta Connection to RIC from JFK, I would like to keep my commuting options open.



10 flights a day, 50 pax at a time ... or 5 flights a day, 100 pax at a time. Hmmm ... I think we have got something there. Sounds like a Guinness commercial --


BRILLIANT!
:beer:

LOL! You and I both know that the RJ was deployed for frequency, as a placeholder at busier airports, and a weapon to clog other carriers' hubs.

 

[Andy]

Three 70's = 210 seats, Two 737's = 270 seats need to check your math and I don't think there are many city pairs served by 10 50's a day. If that were the case then they should put a bigger plane on it.

PLEASE tell me that this was a faceteous post.
Do you understand what, 'for instance' means?
You took a general example and literally applied it to a 135 seat 737?
Are you aware that 737s have a wide range of seating configurations?
Is your nickname Rainman?

Wow.

 

[Andy]

There's got to be a balance of how much domestic feed that is cut to the international growth. I don't think that cutting 50 seaters will be the answer. I think parking 50 seaters and adding props where they can and larger RJs will keep the int'l feed strong.

International flying will be reduced along with domestic flying. Those extra airframes currently used internationally will be redeployed domestically.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

LOL! You and I both know that the RJ was deployed for frequency, as a placeholder at busier airports, and a weapon to clog other carriers' hubs.

Oh, I agree with you.

 

[~~~^~~~]

I can not take the credit for finding this article, but another board had it and it is the best current commentary on oil I've read.

http://reason.com/news/show/125414.html

 

[Dornier 335]

Interesting article:

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

 

[JoeMerchant]

Interesting article:

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

From the article....

[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida][/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]After 50-Seaters, The Next Plane Up Is 130+ Seats. Maybe. There's no question that RJ economics have been going in the wrong direction for years. The Boyd Group accurately forecast a glut of these machines well before OPEC and hedge funds started to get frisky with oil price games. But the real danger now is that most US carriers are stuck with the "100-seat capacity gap." [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]Take American. As 50-seat (and smaller) jets gravitate toward the operational dog

pound, the smallest pieces of iron AA has are 140-seat MD-80s. (Give or take the miniscule Eagle fleet of 25 CRJ-700s.) [/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]That describes a decision conundrum that's pretty ugly. AA can operate markets with RJs that provide negative system margins, or operate them with airliners way too large and too sector-cost expensive, or drop such markets entirely.[/FONT]
[FONT=Tahoma, Ariel, Lucida]This also points to the possibility of AA retiring a number of MD-80s (nee "Super-80s") from its fleet to cut costs. Or NW suddenly slashing out the last of its DC-9s from its fleet. (Note that these are the mainstay of the NW focus operation at IND, along with CRJs. Conclusions can be drawn.)[/FONT]​