Frontier Done (?)

[stratus72]

They won't say, so you know it is bad.

The last public numbers showed around $100 million on May 1. During the last 3 weeks of April they were losing $300-700k a day, depending on the source. The 1110 cure was enormous but not publicly released. Try and wrap your head around 60 airbus payments and 10 q400's for two months.

If you take the low end of the cash burn, $300k a day, we are down to around $90 million by June 9th. Then factor in whatever the 1110 payment was. If it was $10 million we are at $80 million. If it was $25 we are down to $65 million.

Lets be optimistic and say we have $80 million. Divide that by $300k a day and you get roughly 8 months of cash. If we are down to $65 then we have 6 months. If the burn rate is actually $700k a day the lifespan changes to less than 4 months of cash to as short as two months. The courts will not let you run down to zero, so we have basically two options.

1. Oil drops rapidly and we all still have jobs.

2. We start burning the furniture "extending the runway" (I just threw up a little typing that).

I have heard the "6 paychecks" rumor as well. I think with the sale of 4 more aircraft we may live to see the leaves turn color.

I think you nailed it on the head.

 

[stratus72]

Keeping all the leases would allow you to sell a few (3-5) more airplanes and wait out the drop in oil and/or drop in service by competitors. I wish everyone at F9 a prosperous future.

BINGO! Let's hope it works out.

 

[Falcon Jet 1]

remember the lawyers and your directors will not let you burn down to 0 dollars, they have their fees that they have to get paid for. What is that amount, probably in the 10- 15 million range.

 

[Colonel Savage]

remember the lawyers and your directors will not let you burn down to 0 dollars, they have their fees that they have to get paid for. What is that amount, probably in the 10- 15 million range.

That's true, but it's hard to know what an adequate reserve is. Someone was speculating that UAL needed 1 billion left just to do a Chapt 7.

 

[Browntothebone]

Good luck, but will this be the "Final Frontier"?

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

Dude, people are probably going to lose their jobs. Families are going to endure terrible hardships, lots of children are going to lose health insurance, and you're making gay Star Trek puns? Not cool...

 

[Cardinal]

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

 

[cale42]

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

Truly well put...

 

[Dizel8]

The only thing worse than airline executives talking about airline economics is airline pilots talking about airline economics.

I don't know about that, management sure do have some strange ideas at times.

 

[Hawker dude]

Ahhhh nothing like a bunch of pilots that think that they are now economists.....

I think it is safe to say NONE of us have any idea what the landscape would have looked like if not for the fuel hedges. 2 things are a certainty. Costs WOULD have been higher, ticket prices WOULD have been more, capacity would have been different, and NOBODY on this board has a clue as to what WOULD have been the end result.

Class over.

Dude, Skybus???????

what ever you say doesn't matter after you work at a dum$as* airline like skysuck.

stop talking NOW.

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

Well, you're an idiot. I hope you never have to deal with any real hardships. Unless of course you're from Rhodesia and can speak from experience. Nah, it's much better than to just sit around, scratch your empty head, and drink. Rectum...

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

 

[Bob_Sacamano]

You're a high-time, seasoned professional idiot too. How about a little compassion, Newbie?

Truly well put...

 

[cale42]

You're a high-time, seasoned professional idiot too. How about a little compassion, Newbie?

Umm.. I think you misunderstood.. I work under the F9 umbrella.. as does Cardinal.. there is no lack of compassion or truly hoping Frontier survives.. however we get so caught up in our world sometimes we forget to maintain perspective and understand what terrible hardship really means..trust me.. I have plenty of compassion and genuine concern.. but you can never lose perspective.

cale

 

[Skybus]

Dude, Skybus???????

what ever you say doesn't matter after you work at a dum$as* airline like skysuck.

stop talking NOW.

Hawker Dude ( I mean Dic$head)

I guess you and your vast Hawker experience qualifies u as an airline economist/expert??? Had you a clue, you would know that the handle came long before skybus, as WN was the original "skybus" having morphed into the 800lb gorilla of the industry. Having spent 25+ years there and a previous BK prior, I think I "might" have a clue.

Thanks for your input however Dum$ass

 

[stratus72]

Our management claims to have several financial options aside from DIP to help get us through the hard times. If fuel remains roughly what it is now in Sept, i think we'll still be around. Lease backs will free up much needed cash/selling some of our planes too. Never a good thing, but it might prevent us from losing too may jobs. Unless things really change, i do see some furloughs coming our way this fall. I hope that will be our wost case scenerio. We are far from safe at this point, but many of you said we would be out of business already. However, the lack of info coming our way does make me nervous.

I hope I can say, "I told you so." About our being in busniess that is...hopefully no furloughs.

 

[scarlet]

Any dates on what is going on with the courts, and having financiing?

 

[N1atEcon]

I think it is this week, and Monday starts off with a new fuel record. "Great, just great."

 

[Max Powers]

Our management claims to have several financial options aside from DIP to help get us through the hard times. If fuel remains roughly what it is now in Sept, i think we'll still be around. Lease backs will free up much needed cash/selling some of our planes too. Never a good thing, but it might prevent us from losing too may jobs. Unless things really change, i do see some furloughs coming our way this fall. I hope that will be our wost case scenerio. We are far from safe at this point, but many of you said we would be out of business already. However, the lack of info coming our way does make me nervous.

I hope I can say, "I told you so." About our being in busniess that is...hopefully no furloughs.

Man I hope so too

 

[pipe]

"Terrible harship" is Robert Mugabe lighting you and your goats on fire because you won't vote for his commie thugness. The end of Frontier would simply suck and leave many of us scratching our heads. But hopefully we won't have to see that. Here's to the industry. :beer:

If you put a $10 mil bonus clause in an airline CEO's contract for doing so, he would light you and your goats on fire.

PIPE

 

[scarlet]

YEAH AND OBAMA and his over seas (middle east) money is the answer for the U.S. !!!????

 

[platinum750]

If you are losing money, how does some financing end that fact?

 

[stratus72]

If you are losing money, how does some financing end that fact?

Frontier is just hoping there is light at the end of the tunnel. They will do what it takes to prolong our life (or runway as they put it) until we actually see it...if we see it. Obviously our creditors understand the risks a hell of a lot more than any of us on here. They seem fine with the risk at the moment. Yes, things are always changing. Regardless, I base my outlook on what I'm hearing from the creditors board and judge in NYC, not this board. It's amazing how many morons on here think they know exactly what will happen to us. Like i said before, some of those tools said we were going chpt 7 and shutting our doors any day now...they've been saying that for months.

Still here....

 

[Skyboy722]

So you claim that SW can just raise the price of their tickets $50 and everyone will still show up and pay?? If so, then why not squeak out a profit over 2007, or did mgt just mess up and make too much that year? Airline tickets, like everything else is an elastic commodity, as the price goes up, less people show up, so it is a losing proposition above a certain price point for any given segment. I agree that subtracting the revenue from hedging is not an accurate representation, but I'm not sure that even SW can raise it's prices nearly $1Billion a year and have the same overall pax count show up.

They may control the BOTTOM level of pricing in any given market, but they do not have a magic wand to do away with price vs demand economics.
LUV

Calm down. I didn't say anything about profits (or losses). All I said is that you can't just subtract hedging gains from profit and wind up with "what would have been". Without hedging, it would have been a different lanscape entirely. Of course I don't think they can just crank the prices as high as they want. Sheesh.

 

[vixin]

Calm down. I didn't say anything about profits (or losses). All I said is that you can't just subtract hedging gains from profit and wind up with "what would have been". Without hedging, it would have been a different lanscape entirely. Of course I don't think they can just crank the prices as high as they want. Sheesh.

BLAH BLAH BLAH

The horse is well dead and worm poop already. Just give it a break.

 

[D-Bo]

YEAH AND OBAMA and his over seas (middle east) money is the answer for the U.S. !!!????

Middle East money huh? Wow, you must believe every piece of dumb bull s*** you hear. Amazing. You can't be that stupid can you? You must be.

 

[FLYLOW22]

If you are losing money, how does some financing end that fact?

It doesn't. Financing buys time to 1) reorganize or 2) wait for industry trends to change (hopefully for the better).

 

[BeachBummer]

Frontier is just hoping there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Still here....

Yea, well the light at the end of the tunnel might be the train. It was for ATA, and the tunnel was long. You may be lucky if you get hit early!:bomb:

GOODLUCK DUDES!

 

[PinnacleDude]

I've heard SWA management thinks Frontier may be around a while. F9 has a good product. From a buddy who is in DAL.

FWIW, I hope everyone is around a while.

 

[stratus72]

Yea, well the light at the end of the tunnel might be the train. It was for ATA, and the tunnel was long. You may be lucky if you get hit early!:bomb:

GOODLUCK DUDES!

Yaaaawn. Same old comparison. We'll see what happens but we aren't anything like ATA. Personally, I'd rather get hit later than sooner. If one is proactive, like me, it gives us more time to put plan B and C in place.