Frontier Done (?)

[Wino]

you might be aproaching southwests costs without fuel, but the problem is that in bankruptcy you are completely unhedged.

Even the majors are partially hedged. You are buying oil at 138 a barrel or whatever it is today.

Right now, its all about cash burn. Figure out how much you got, and devide it by burn per day. Thats your answer, and then ask yourself if you will be out of bankruptcy before the flying slows down seasonally in the fall.

Cheers
Wino

 

[Colonel Savage]

you might be aproaching southwests costs without fuel, but the problem is that in bankruptcy you are completely unhedged.

That will be a big problem for the Legacies when they start lining up in front of the BK judges later on.

 

[Andy]

We're suppossed to receive an update as early as today regarding our BK/DIP situation. I'll post it if it's actual news.

The cost of funds is rising rapidly in the credit markets. The terms that F9 can get today are worse than terms they could have gotten a month ago. And I don't see any improvement.
The credit markets are getting ready to lock up again, which is going to cause the entire economy to roll over hard. Scary times ahead.

 

[Andy]

That will be a big problem for the Legacies when they start lining up in front of the BK judges later on.

That's true as long as oil prices are on the rise.

If oil prices are decreasing, as can be expected once demand destruction kicks into high gear, being unhedged is an advantage.
Several foreign governments have reduced oil subsidies and both India and China are mulling over doing the same.

 

[XR650R]

Any news on yesterdays meeting?

 

[USMC319]

Any news on yesterdays meeting?

Looks like F9 has accepted all the leases on their A-320 fleet and Lynx Q-400 fleet. No DIP financing announced yet, however, they allude to the notion they have financing available but are trying to get the very best deal??

As to the ex-fuel CASMs mentioned earlier, F9's current CASM is supposed to be in the sub $0.058 range now. Last I read SWA was about $0.0625. I believe of the publicly traded companies, only Airtran is lower at about $0.054 CASM. So, yes the fuel hedges that only SWA and Alaska have are the only variables that keep the playing field out of balance at this time. Hedging is a high stakes gamble and they are paying off quite nicely now, but in any type of gambling, the tables could turn in a hurry.

 

[vixin]

I wonder when you are going to get paid swa wages. I love it when companies can go into BK, then people are glad the CASM is lower then SWA's. Nothing against F9 guys, but it gets old. Oh yeah swa hedges are running out soon. Just think of the lean machine when SWA goes into BK.

 

[spitfire1500]

That's because we sold 4 airplanes to Russia. Good try.

Wish someone would have told me, landed in Moscow the other day on vacation. Could have ferried my family over. This place is like an aviation museum....the bad part you get to ride on the museum displays. Flew on a TU 214 the other day...I dont think the lav was cleaned since it was built. You think US flight attendants are grumpy...in the aisle they just push you to get by.

 

[USMC319]

I wonder when you are going to get paid swa wages. I love it when companies can go into BK, then people are glad the CASM is lower then SWA's. Nothing against F9 guys, but it gets old. Oh yeah swa hedges are running out soon. Just think of the lean machine when SWA goes into BK.

Vixen,

I don't think anyone is "glad" about having lower ex-fuel CASMs than SWA. Its the nature of the beast. As long as SWA is charging ultra low fares in an effort to gain market share, everyone else has to try to compete by any means possible. It sucks.

As far as when F9 will be paid SWA wages...probably never, in fact F9 went from the highest paid Airbus pilots in the industry to somewhere below the middle of the pack. My guess is SWA will move lower before anyone else moves higher.

As far as fuel hedges, it is impossible to predict whether they will be beneficial in the future or a liability. Nobody says they run out. We know they have proven to be a windfall over the last couple of years. The $300,000,000 SWA lost last quarter in the airline business was offset by more than that figure in fuel hedging gains. You claim that when the fuel hedges don't offset passenger flying operations, that SWA will simply raise their fares to cover the loss. Well just ask all the other airlines how that little program is going.

 

[D-Bo]

As far as when F9 will be paid SWA wages...probably never, in fact F9 went from the highest paid Airbus pilots in the industry to somewhere below the middle of the pack.

They made you believe you were the highest paid Airbus drivers. Total benefits package wise though, F9 was far from top paid. It's not true. Not for the entire group anyway. I'm sure the folks that timed out by December would qualify. The best way to determine it though would be to multiply the hourly wage times guarantee pay only. Then add in A,B, or C plan and medical.

I'm not trying to say mine was because it was far from the highest. I wouldn't just look at the narrow airbus pilot pay either. There are plenty of other comparable size planes to the Bus that other airlines fly.

 

[EMB170Pilot]

Blows my mind but if I had to choose a Frontier airbus with TV to watch or southwest with nothing, I choose Frontier.

Everytime I jumpseat on yall to get home, I have been very impressed! I hope your airline survives!

Good Luck Frontier

 

[Old School]

Are you sure that SWA lost 300M in 3 months? That seems a bit high?

 

[bravodude]

Vixen,

I don't think anyone is "glad" about having lower ex-fuel CASMs than SWA. Its the nature of the beast. As long as SWA is charging ultra low fares in an effort to gain market share, everyone else has to try to compete by any means possible. It sucks.

As far as when F9 will be paid SWA wages...probably never, in fact F9 went from the highest paid Airbus pilots in the industry to somewhere below the middle of the pack. My guess is SWA will move lower before anyone else moves higher.

As far as fuel hedges, it is impossible to predict whether they will be beneficial in the future or a liability. Nobody says they run out. We know they have proven to be a windfall over the last couple of years. The $300,000,000 SWA lost last quarter in the airline business was offset by more than that figure in fuel hedging gains. You claim that when the fuel hedges don't offset passenger flying operations, that SWA will simply raise their fares to cover the loss. Well just ask all the other airlines how that little program is going.

The reason that other airlines can't seem to raise fares is because of SWA every iincrease that we have put through have been matched by the majors and they have stuck! So yes if the hedges don't work we will just raise fares.

 

[bravodude]

That's true as long as oil prices are on the rise.

If oil prices are decreasing, as can be expected once demand destruction kicks into high gear, being unhedged is an advantage.
Several foreign governments have reduced oil subsidies and both India and China are mulling over doing the same.

Not if you are protected against the downside risk. It may cost us a little more for the contracts but if oil goes down (I don't think we will ever see 50-70 again) we will still come out ahead.

 

[monkeybrains01]

As far as when F9 will be paid SWA wages...probably never, in fact F9 went from the highest paid Airbus pilots in the industry to somewhere below the middle of the pack. My guess is SWA will move lower before anyone else moves higer.

My a$$. Maybe for you in the left seat, but f/o pay was pretty weak b4 the paycut and now it downright sucks. The days of 2-3 year upgrades is long gone and after 4th year the f/o scale is flat.