From: US Gov't Office of Petroleum Reserves

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Here's the quote:

"The US government knows that conventional oil is running out fast. According to a report on oil shales and unconventional oil supplies prepared by the US office of petroleum reserves last year, "world oil reserves are being depleted three times as fast as they are being discovered. Oil is being produced from past discoveries, but the reserves are not being fully replaced. Remaining oil reserves of individual oil companies must continue to shrink. The disparity between increasing production and declining discoveries can only have one outcome: a practical supply limit will be reached and future supply to meet conventional oil demand will not be available."

It continues: "Although there is no agreement about the date that world oil production will peak, forecasts presented by USGS geologist Les Magoon, the Oil and Gas Journal, and others expect the peak will occur between 2003 and 2020. What is notable ... is that none extend beyond the year 2020, suggesting that the world may be facing shortfalls much sooner than expected."

Here's the whole article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html

Will we avoid a serious recession/depression or a war with China?
Will GM and Ford survive?

Cliff
GRB

 

[some_dude]

Do a google search on "Les Magoon" and USGS. You'll find that this information is about five years old, so it's hardly news. You will also find, if you look a bit deeper, that "Les Magoon" is usually described as a "maverick" or a "dissenter" so you can't really say he speaks for the USGS.

Hi!

Here's the quote:

"The US government knows that conventional oil is running out fast. According to a report on oil shales and unconventional oil supplies prepared by the US office of petroleum reserves last year, "world oil reserves are being depleted three times as fast as they are being discovered. Oil is being produced from past discoveries, but the reserves are not being fully replaced. Remaining oil reserves of individual oil companies must continue to shrink. The disparity between increasing production and declining discoveries can only have one outcome: a practical supply limit will be reached and future supply to meet conventional oil demand will not be available."

It continues: "Although there is no agreement about the date that world oil production will peak, forecasts presented by USGS geologist Les Magoon, the Oil and Gas Journal, and others expect the peak will occur between 2003 and 2020. What is notable ... is that none extend beyond the year 2020, suggesting that the world may be facing shortfalls much sooner than expected."

Here's the whole article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html

Will we avoid a serious recession/depression or a war with China?
Will GM and Ford survive?

Cliff
GRB

 

[2000flyer]

And why would the Guardian, a UK newspaper, give a rats ... on US releasing petroleum reserves? It is widely know and accepted that even releasing a fair amount of the reserved does nothing to ease oil prices at the pumps over the long term. Typically used during elections to get a momentary dip in prices so the country knows you "feel their pain." (yes, you know who I'm talkikng about)

Lastly, what is unconventional oil supplies ? Obviously not talking about oil refined to gasoline. So what need is there to release it from reserve?

More mad house specualtion (read panic) on gas prices, which, according to AAA and others has peaked an is falling nationwide. Obviously won't reach last summer's lows, but lower than this years high.

2000Flyer

 

[Flyeys]

Wow between 2003 and 2020, thats pretty acurate...

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Based on all that I've read, I predict the Oil Peak to be between 2006-2008. After oil peaks, the prices will, more or less, steadily rise until oil becomes unusable economically as a transportation fuel.

The sooner we try and kick the oil habit, the easier it will be.

About 100 years ago we relied on horsepower, and the internal combustion engine was a pipe dream. Most people didn't believe things would change, and thought cars were impractical.

Things will change, and if we control the change we'll be a lot better off than if we wait and are forced to change. I don't want to have to pay $5-$10/gallon for gas, because I have no other means of transportation other than my ICE cars that only burn gasoline.

CLiff
YIP

 

[FN FAL]

A meteor is supposed to hit the earth in 2017.

 

[cforst513]

who CARES if ford and GM survive? yeah, there are a lot of jobs involved, but how many in america? i fear that fewer and fewer 'american made' cars are actually american made. and instead of wasting time in a war w/ china that we would lose b/c they're 4 times our size, why not make the move from petroleum-based transporation to other kinds? the big oil companies have ran the world for 100 years. it's time to give up their reign.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

There is some chance that a meteor will hit in 2017. It is very small.

However, the chance that the earth's oil supply will decrease is 100%. Just because gas is only $2+ at the pump today doesn't mean that it will be that way for the next 30 years.

Many people who made buggies and horse-transportation equipment believed that cars were a passing, impractical fad. Since horses had been used for transportation for centuries, many people believed that horses would still be the number one transportation means for the indefinite future.

Buying a unnecessary low-mileage vehicle today only exacerbates the oil shortage.

Think about it.

Cliff
YIP

 

[CapnVegetto]

Eventually, we'll ween off of oil. There are many alternate fuels now just for cars. Hydrogen, methane, solar power, etc. They know how to do it, they just don't know how to do it cheaply. Not yet anyway. Something is just needed to push it over the edge. An oil shortage would do just that.

 

[wrxpilot]

Lastly, what is unconventional oil supplies ? Obviously not talking about oil refined to gasoline. So what need is there to release it from reserve?
2000Flyer

I think by "unconventional" they are referring to the massive oil shale deposits in the western slope of Colorado, tar sands of Canada, etc. When price/barrel hits a critical number, those deposits will become feasible to produce.

 

[TurboS7]

I was talking to an oil guy in New Orleans the other day, they say that half of the wells in the Gulf are still capped. I don't buy all the BS. Sorry.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

There are lots of capped oil wells all over the place, that will be uncapped when the prices make them viable, and there are enough people and equipment to pump them.

Unfortunately, those wells don't have much oil in them. Basically, all of the major discoveries have been made. There may be 2 or 3 larger discoveries, but there won't be enough to stem the tide of worldwide growth, fueled especially by China and India.

Another big concern is that there's a HUGE shortage of offshore rigs and experienced oil workers to fuel the increase in oil production that we need. If you are thinking of getting out of flying, oil production companies need a ton of new workers.

Cliff
YIP

 

[Dan CFI/CFII]

Can't use alternative sources of energy cheaply?

Biodiesel...

Puts farmers to work. Burns cleaner, more efficiently, and is stupendously safe to handle.

I'm actually in the very final stages of importing a small turbo-diesel to replace the 4 cylinder gas engine in my Toyota.

It's not that complicated, it's just that we have an oil-guy controlled government and they have had quite a run with us and our energy policy lately. There is NOBODY who can beleive that giving tax breaks to businesses who purchase 6,000 lbs+ SUVs is a good energy policy.

I don't know how tapped out the oil reserves are or not, what I do know is that with an oil-man in charge, we have these really, really high prices. Would a liberal tree hugger be able to as efficiently attempt to manage our oil prices? I doubt it. We've got one of the best guys available if we are attempting to control the price of oil, and it isn't working. We need to do something different.

I, for one, will be happily putting out exhaust fumes that smell like french fries

Dan