Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
  • Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
  • Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
  • Share the passion for aviation
  • Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun

Friction at Fractionals

Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
  • Invite your friends
  • Share the passion of aviation
  • Friendliest aviation community on the web

BrnJetFuel

NetJets Slave
Joined
Feb 2, 2003
Posts
125
From FEB 2003 AIN

Friction in fractionals to spark big changes

by R. Randall Padfield

Like the shifting of continental plates beneath the earth’s crust, changes in the fractional-aircraft industry are under way. And while only a few cracks are now visible on the surface, underground rumblings signal greater turmoil to come. By mid-year, if not sooner, according to industry observers, the fractional landscape is going to look very different from the way it does today.


Changes are occurring in Cleveland at Flight Options and in Dallas at Bombardier Flexjet, respectively the second- and third-largest fractional providers. And Woodbridge, N.J.-headquartered NetJets, the largest provider, is already seeing increased interest because of these providers’ problems, according to Kevin Russell, executive senior vice president.

In Cleveland, Raytheon Co. officials are negotiating details of an agreement with Flight Options that will result in Raytheon becoming the largest shareholder in the fractional provider. At this time last year the two companies were negotiating a joint-venture merger of Raytheon’s fractional arm, Raytheon Travel Air, with Flight Options. The merger, completed last March, gave Raytheon 49.9 percent of the new entity, Flight Options LLC, with Raytheon also contributing a $20 million loan. As of September 29 last year, according to Raytheon’s third-quarter report to the Securities and Exchange Commission, Raytheon’s “investment in and other assets related to the joint venture totaled $83 million.”

Since the merger, Flight Options has been attempting to raise additional capital both to pay back the loan and to buy out Raytheon’s equity. As the report to the SEC explained, “In light of current capital market conditions, there can be no assurance that Flight Options will ultimately be successful in attracting additional outside funding. If Flight Options is not successful in this regard, the company may offer to exchange the Flight Options debt it currently holds for additional equity in the joint venture, whereby the company could be responsible for its operations, own a majority of Flight Options and consolidate Flight Options in its financial statements.”

In a weekly voice-mail message to employees early last month, Flight Options chairman and CEO Kenn Ricci said he has spent much time looking for the right solution to the company’s financial difficulties and that now “Raytheon has become that solution.” He said that as Flight Options’ largest shareholder, “Raytheon will have significant input on how we do things,” but added that “we’re not moving to Wichita” and “we can’t be spooked by who’s in the head office or change of command.” He encouraged employees not to “let anxieties about the future compromise the job we do.”

Neither Raytheon nor Flight Options has revealed publicly what will happen after negotiations are completed. Some observers see Raytheon’s takeover as positive, while others are not so sure.

Robert Pinkas, a Flight Options board member, told Crain’s Business Cleveland, “Raytheon stepping up is a plus. Raytheon is a major shareholder. They have the capital, they have the resources and they have their viewpoint…they want to build the business. They see a terrific opportunity.” Pinkas is managing general partner of Ohio-based Brantley Partners, an investment firm that has also invested in Flight Options.

Mike Riegel, president and CEO of Fractional Insider, also views the takeover as positive: “With the backing of a multibillion-dollar company, customers will have confidence that Flight Options is well funded.”

On the other hand, some observers who spoke with AIN believe that Raytheon is not particularly happy about having to bail out Flight Options. “Raytheon wanted to get out of the fractional business,” said Steve O’Neill, CEO of fractional provider CitationShares. “Why else would they have formed the joint venture with Flight Options in the first place?” Others, who wished to remain off the record, also expressed this view.

Ricci’s position in the reorganized company, if he’ll get one, is another subject of much speculation. Ricci told AIN in late November that he planned to stay on in a leadership role, but other people have heard him say he does not want to be a Raytheon employee.

Will fractional-aircraft shareowners necessarily care which company has ownership? Attorney Kitt Narodick thinks not. Narodick’s firm, Lane Powell Spears and Lubersky of Seattle, has handled more than 600 fractional deals for shareowners. “We have a lot of former Raytheon Travel Air clients and heard no service complaints from them after Flight Options took over in March. So far, our client base has been very quiet about the current Raytheon takeover. You have to realize that these folks buy a membership ticket in a limo service in the sky. Most don’t really care who pays the pilots, dispatchers and mechanics.”

It’s Not Just the Economy
There’s no doubt that the economic downturn has hurt sales of both new and used aircraft throughout the industry. (General Aviation Manufacturers Association figures for the first nine months of 2002 show new business jet sales down 12 percent and turboprop sales down 40 percent.) This has hurt the fractionals–some more than others–because sales of new airplane shares have always accounted for most of their revenue. The operational side of the business (flight hours and monthly management fees) has not been nearly as profitable as new share sales. In fact, for most frax providers, according to Riegel, it has not been profitable at all. “Before about 18 months ago,” he said, “volume sales of aircraft up front were offsetting losses from operations. Now they’re not.”

Exacerbating the situation is that the number of shareowners leaving the fractional business has increased while the number of new owners entering the business has decreased. So although the total number of shareowners showed an increase last year, it was at a lower rate than in previous years. Explained Riegel: “In 2001, about 1,000 new owners bought shares and some 110 left, leaving a net gain of 890 owners industry-wide. In 2002–as of December 7–there were 760 new owners, but 210 had left the industry, leaving a net gain of only 550. However, because December is historically a good month for fractional sales, the actual net increase was probably between 600 and 650. Still, it’s quite a bit less than the year before.”

But the change has not been equal across the board, according to statistics compiled by Fractional Insider. “NetJets took in more new business and lost less of the old,” said Riegel. “Flight Options lost customers to NetJets, and Flexjet lost a higher percentage of existing owners than the others.”

A NetJets salesman, speaking off the record, claimed that some other providers are now feeling the effects of “concessions” they made to close sales with shareowners. “Giving away extra flight hours to sell a contract or the ‘tenths’ [a tenth of an hour to cover taxi time] on each end of a leg are coming back to haunt them,” he claimed.

Also reducing revenue on the operational side, according to Riegel, is that shareowners are generally under-flying their shares, to the point that some are selling back a portion of their shares (if not the whole share). He said, “People tend to put their flying into two categories: essential flying, which is mainly by the principal share owner, and nonessential flying, which could be by family and more junior personnel. The principal may still be using the share, but the second category is being reduced.”

But when owners decide to sell their fractional shares, they’re finding that the residual value, based on fair market value of the aircraft, has decreased much more than expected. Flight Options owners, said Riegel, have been hit particularly hard, because their used airplanes were bought and valued during a bull market. “Some owners have lost up to 50 percent of the value of their shares in the last two years,”

he said. Ricci told employees in his weekly message on January 17 that the higher-priced used aircraft have lost value, while the entry-level jets are holding their value. “The marketplace,” he said, “is very much an entry-level marketplace.”

Some Flexjet owners have also seen lower-than-expected valuations. And although valuations of NetJets aircraft have also followed the market, the drop in value has not been as significant. One observer attributed this to NetJets’ philosophy of buying the best airplane in each category, so that when a NetJets airplane does enter the used market, its residual value holds up better than that of the less popular models.

Will Frax Prices Go Up?
Actually, fractional prices normally increase every January 1. Although fractional contracts are set for five years, providers increase the management fee by 3.75 percent or the Consumer Price Index, which-ever is greater, and the hourly fee by the Consumer Price Index. (The CPI increased 2.4 percent from December 2001 to December 2002.) Prices for new contracts–covering shares, management fees and hourly rates– are generally raised as well.

But the question implies greater increases than those in past, with the idea that a 10- to 15-percent increase in management and hourly fees would be enough to make the operational side of the business profitable, or at least break even. There’s also the thought that NetJets may be holding these rates down until the competition crumbles. Both of these ideas are no more than rumblings under the surface.

More substantially, the requirements of Subpart K, RVSM, TAWS and other equipment or procedural mandates will add costs to fractionals that they will be able to recover only by increasing rates.


CONTINUED NEXT POST
 
CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS POST

CitationShares’ O’Neill said his company is taking the long view, which is similar to that of NetJets CEO Richard Santulli and owner Warren Buffett. “We’ve not trying to become big fast,” O’Neill told AIN. “We’re looking for the long term and growing slowly. Flight Options tried to go after NetJets in a short period of time, slashing prices, giving away hours and engaging in negative ad campaigns. It’s better to take the time to grow slowly.”

Fractionals aren’t dead or dying. Far from it. The industry is still growing, albeit at a slower rate than two years ago. But the industry is definitely changing, so much so that some observers say it’s in turmoil and that only the strong will survive. o

Aviation International News is a publication of The Convention News Co., Inc., P.O. Box 277, Midland Park, NJ, 07432. Copyright 2003. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission from The Convention News Co., Inc., is strictly prohibited. The Convention News Co., Inc., also publishes NBAA Convention News, HAI Convention News, EBACE Convention News, Paris 2003, Dubai 2003, Asian Aerospace 2004, Farnborough 2004 and AIN Alerts.
 
Third Times A Charm???

Also inset on the page was a brief article saying that Delta's AirElite may be getting together with FlexJet. While I don't recal it mentioning Delta trying to buy Flex, the marriage was described as akin to Avolar.

Lets see.

AMR + Business Jet Solutions (Flexjet) = failure

UAL + Avolar = failure

Delta + Flex = ???

Granted, AirElite seems to be doing well. Why would DAL, in light of recent articles of financial demise(see: Delta Wage Cut on General Board) even think of making a go with a fractional?

Maybe I'm missing something here, but is history (of failures) repeating itself?

2000Flyer
 
Fractionals dominate airframers’ order books

by Ian Goold

The business-jet fractional-ownership fleet continues to grow at a phenomenal rate and now accounts for more than 60 percent of total industry backlog, reflecting falling orders from traditional customers. The situation leaves major U.S. manufacturers heavily exposed; indeed, so important have fractional sales become that Bombardier, Gulfstream, Cessna and Raytheon are all involved in such programs. Cessna, Gulfstream and Raytheon each rely on frax operators for more than 75 percent of their current backlog.

Aircraft scheduled for delivery to fractional providers in the next three years number more than the entire fractional fleet did just two years ago. If all orders are fulfilled, the top four fractional operators–NetJets, Flight Options, Flexjet and CitationShares–will receive 455 aircraft in the next two years, compared with 452 units in fractional service at the beginning of 2001, according to London consultancy Airclaims (see box). NetJets alone is slated to receive 225 aircraft in this period (about two a week throughout 2005), a sum equivalent to its whole fleet just four years ago.

With manufacturers continuing to feel the chill of recession, outstanding fractional orders now represent 61 percent of overall business-jet requirements. Fractional operators have steadily increased their acquisitions while new deliveries of all types have continued to outstrip orders, resulting in a second consecutive year of declining industry backlog. Airclaims said that of 1,227 business jets on order at the beginning of this year, no fewer than 751 are for fractional providers (with combined options on almost 350 more).

Figures for the past five years show a peak backlog of more than 2,000 business jets at the end of 2000, when fractional orders accounted for 23 percent–a typical proportion for the three preceding years. With the backlog falling to 1,635 at the start of last year, the 600 or so slated for fractional operators represented 36 percent. Despite their having taken delivery of almost 300 aircraft in the past two years, the fractional providers’ new-order backlog has jumped 60 percent (from 471) and their held options have more than doubled to almost 350.

Among all these soaring numbers one element of stability may have emerged, insofar as fractional operators’ voracious appetites appear to have become slightly sated. As a proportion of their current fleets, Airclaims statistics show, annual orders from the fractional segment have in fact been declining–outstanding requirements at the beginning of 1999 and 2000 had been much more than 100 percent of the contemporary fleet, but in the past three years have become much more equable, with new orders essentially matching numbers of existing aircraft in service.

Despite that apparent trend, however, it looks as if nothing can stop NetJets’ steady march, with a further 200 aircraft to be added between 2006 and 2010 (excluding options held on more than 300). Outstanding orders well outnumber the operator’s current 377-strong fleet. By comparison, number-two Flight Options (before its probable takeover by Raytheon Co.) expected to essentially double its current fleet of 186 aircraft over the next eight years.

Bombardier’s Flexjet (which buys and flies only in-house products) is set to expand by almost 50 percent when it adds 52 new airplanes in the next three years. The Flexjet fleet currently numbers 124. CitationShares, jointly owned by Cessna and TAG Aviation, plans to add 74 aircraft over the coming four years to its current fleet of 31 business jets, according to Airclaims.

Raytheon and Cessna are the main beneficiaries of outstanding fractional business, each company logging orders for more than 250 airplanes and options for an additional 100. Gulfstream has orders from fractional providers for nearly 140 aircraft, and options for 100 more. Bombardier and Dassault each have fractional orders for around 50 aircraft, and unspecified options.

If fractional operators put into service all the aircraft ordered and optioned, and retain their existing fleets, the industry segment will have some 1,850 aircraft in service by 2010, Airclaims said, even if no further orders are placed.

Considering the entire business-jet industry backlog, Airclaims figures show both Cessna and Raytheon with more than 300-strong order books, and with fractional proportions of 76 and 86.5 percent, respectively. Including Israel Aircraft Industries designs (the G100, G150 and G200), some 77 percent of Gulfstream’s order book of 179 aircraft is from fractional operators.

French manufacturer Dassault is less exposed, with 69 percent of its 62-aircraft backlog destined for fractional providers. Canada’s Bombardier is the only major airframer with fewer than half of its outstanding orders (52 out of 107) coming from fractional companies. However, Bombardier is still relying on its in-house fractional operation for almost 50 percent of its current order book.

Airclaims shows a total of 1,227 business-jet orders held by manufacturers at the beginning of this year, many of which are for new designs that may still be years from certification. The total includes 116 Sino Swearingen SJ30-2s (certification is expected by year-end); 112 Eclipse 500s (expected certification is now 2004

or later); 13 VisionAire Vantage VA-10s (no expected certification date is available; the company is still seeking development funding); and one Century Jet (which also needs funding before further development can take place). Airclaims pointed out that its database includes only aircraft for which it can identify a customer.
 
What does everyone think of AIN, Aviation International News? I've heard many pilots starts calling AIN the tabloid of aviation publications. I've been reading AIN for about a year and have always thought that they don't do much research or have inexperienced people working for them. Much of the stuff would be better off in an opinion section.

Anyone care to comment?
 
Personally I don’t see FlexJet as a failure. If you’re just referring to the Airline + Fractional combos being failures, well I’m not sure. I came to FlexJet just as AMR was getting out of it, but if you recall AMR was getting out of all their non-core businesses: AMR Combs (FBOs), SABER, Ect. I don’t think they got out because Flex wasn’t a viable business. As for Avalar, we’ll never know. But, I think if timing would have been different it would have been real interesting.

I have subscriptions to AIN, BC&A, and PROPILOT, and I agree that AIN is primarily the “gossip” publication for the aviation industry, and doesn’t have anything of real substance. The one thing about the article that is being referred to here is it quotes a certain person several times. I have to take what this person says with a grain of salt (for reasons I don’t want to get into right now). But like all media, be it Print, TV, Radio, we have all learned to be skeptics, or at least I have.

And about this FlexJet/Delta Air Elite, I don’t think it will be as big a deal as some would like to make it. I’m guessing that they will become the Charter arm of Flex, and that they are NOT going to be buying Flex, but just my guess.

Peace,
 
Answerguy

AIN is not a bad publication but its word should not be taken as gospel. On this very forum several months ago some negative comments regarding AIN were posted. The Editor replied to the comments. Throughout the discussions with him he did admit that often a story will be printed without being properly researched. Deadlines mean more that accuracy from time to time if you ask me. Therefore read the publication and take away from it what you wish but I caution anyone who may take their word as law. ProPilot and Business and Commercial Aircraft are both excellent publications which can be used to corroberate a published story.
 
I agree. AIN without a doubt seems to be the tabloid of all aviation news. This seems to be a widespread opinion these days which is too bad for them. I used to enjoy the publication a bit more than I currently do after much of what I have read over the last year. I do remember the editor or whoever it was commenting on this topic a while back but have seen no changes. It's not the issue of reporting late breaking news that may or not be true, it is content they decide to print in some of these articles.
 
Last edited:
Truman,

You're correct in the assumption that I didn't mean Flex was a failure. The marriage between AMR and Flex was a failure (in the sense that it was outside the "core" of AMR's business).

None of the frax I mentioned, except for Avolar, did I mean to imply were failures, but the ventures with the airlines is what failed.

Thus my point, is it a wise decision for DAL to become involved (more so outside of AirElite). I seems to me that Elite's business plan is succeeding and totally different from that of a Fractional provider. Why would DAL take a financial risk when they're furloughing and asking for labor cost reductions?

Just curious.

2000Flyer
 
AIN

As most people know, people at AIN read all the message boards they can, and often have reports based on such message boards. A nameless, faceless person posts something - and all of a sudden it becomes fact when AIN publishes it. Not a very reliable source, if you ask me. Long ago, I used to think AIN was a good publication. Now I don't think it's even good enough to line the bird cage.
 

Latest resources

Back
Top