Forecasted First Quarter Results

[IXLR8]

So pea-tard....

How ARE those INTL routes doing?

-Smart, really smart.....

What is your source for assuming the INTL routes for Delta are doing so bad?...is CAL doing that much better?..UAL?...AA?....USair? you never mention those other airlines and there load factors...

 

[maxblast72]

I know these are forecasted numbers, but how can United more then double the loss of the next closest airline. That seems a little outrageous to me?

United's per share loss may be the largest, but you also must use the number of outstanding shares to get the true size of the loss. Here are the loss projections with number of shares outstanding included:

1. Delta - $700 million net loss ($1/share - 700 million outstanding shares)
2. United - $610 million net loss ($4.27 share - 143 million outstanding shares)
3. AMR - $425 million net loss ($1.52/share - 280 million outstanding shares)
4. LCC - $240 million net loss ($2/share - 120 million outstanding shares)
5. CAL - $140 million net loss ($1.10/share - 124 million outstanding shares)
6. LUV - $22 million net profit ($0.03/share - 740 million outstanding shares)

 

[Max Powers]

So you know what is going to happen the next 20 years?

Yep the same thing that has happened the past 20 years. Those who are not willing to learn from the mistakes made in the past will be condemned to repeat them.

The last 20 years or so the legacies have been losing market share. And they will continue to lose market share with those numbers. It is inevitable.

 

[maxblast72]

-Who would you rather compete against-if you were running DAL? AirTran-which has practically new planes and pays pretty well, or ALGT which flies 40+yr old burners and pays less than some RJ jobs?

For low aircraft utilization networks like Allegiant's system into leisure destinations like Vegas and Orlando, the 150 seat older airplane (first MD-80 was delivered in the early 1980s) is a good fit. For a high aircraft utilization, higher frequency 7 day a week operation like Airtran's ATL hub, the smaller more efficient platforms (717/737) are better suited to the mission.

Two totally different business models. Airtran hub was built right underneath the Delta umbrella while Allegiant is chasing small-midsize city leisure travelers who want a direct flight. Airtran has proven they can handle competition where Allegiant has not proven that yet.

It took Airtran 10 years to build the largest LCC hub in the world, do you really think Allegiant could just jump in and build a hub quickly if Airtran disappeared?

 

[tzskipper]

I know these are forecasted numbers, but how can United more then double the loss of the next closest airline. That seems a little outrageous to me?

I believe that it is due to the number of outstanding shares of stock that each company has issued. It can really skew any per-share comparison being made.

For example, UAL has about 144m shares outstanding, while DAL has about 698m shares outstanding.

Skipper

 

[Scope out RJ's]

So pea-tard....

How ARE those INTL routes doing?

-Smart, really smart.....

P.S.-I love how you DAL guys assume everyone- everywhere wants to work at your company... I have never applied, been interviewed, or been shown the door as many of you seem so keen to claim...

-Your dump ain't on my list-especially after the merger...

Why should it be? You seem to be doing just fine as the main wal mart greeter during the day, and "head" fry man at Mc Donald's at night. Hey kid, make mine a large!
At least it paid for your subscription to FI!:laugh:

 

[contrail67]

I believe that it is due to the number of outstanding shares of stock that each company has issued. It can really skew any per-share comparison being made.

For example, UAL has about 144m shares outstanding, while DAL has about 698m shares outstanding.

Skipper

Thank you for showing intelligence on this site..I cannot believe some of the questions and comments on here by some....ie: the one you referenced. It is always good to know that there is someone here that has a brain.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Geez, you are a genius! I sure wish our mgmt would consult you and pull out of intl. I mean, what a money loser. I think all the airlines shoud pull out of intl. and just fly domestic rjs with 15 flts per day to dhn and the like. Nobody wants to go intl. and no one in this big world of ours wants to come to the US. I agree with you, we are just another Pan Am and there will be nothing left except Allegiant, Airtran and of course the great SW. Thanks Nostrodumbass.

One quarter of losses related to failing INTL routes would account for all the money you claim rjs burn up over a decade.....

-Which do you really think loses more money? An rj to DHN with 23 people, or a 767 tooling across the planet with 70 people?

-It is truly amazing how many of you can't see the obvious truth-maybe I wouldn't want to see it either.

 

[maxblast72]

I don't think anyone said their isn't an international market. It is just not going to be as big as people were predicting just a few years ago. Thus, announcements like the one Delta made a few weeks ago (about post-Labor day ASM cuts) are just beginning. Either every carrier needs to quickly reduce their international ASMs or one big player needs to leave the market completely. Too many seats chasing too little money in today's economic realities.

 

[bizicmo]

Thank you for showing intelligence on this site..I cannot believe some of the questions and comments on here by some....ie: the one you referenced. It is always good to know that there is someone here that has a brain.

What was wrong with that question? I didn't understand why the loss per share was so large. I just assumed they all had about the same shares out there and I was wrong. I guess next time I don't understand something I will just stay in the dark.

 

[General Lee]

-Gotta be encouraging for DAL and all their "inspired" moey-making INTL routes.....

-More importantly-look who DID make money. Either of those two could be knocking on DAL's door in ATL before long....

-Hmmm..... "inspired" indeed-Steenland and Andersen rock!

-Got that fry hat ready, Gen? I'll show you how to get them nice and golden-brown!

Look McFry, you need to get back to work and replace the urinal cakes in the guys' stall after you finish that last batch of fries.... If you think INTL travel will be sunk FOREVER, then you are wrong. And, we are already PROACTIVELY pulling flights that may be weak. Read what Ed Bastain said about cutting some flights again, after you clean the stalls......too bad you were part of the parking of 100 50 seat RJs. McRonalds is more your style, anyway.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

A wise man once said you can never convince a man of the truth if his job depends on a lie.

You both are losing money! RJs and Wide bodies and pretty soon Narrow bodies. Delta and the legacies alike can not fight market realities. These market realities will slowly kill and shrink these companies over the next two decades.

Yeah, and an asteroid will make us all walk the globe in search for food within the next decade too.....

Wait, you forgot to note that we actually are increasing the number of people who fly domestically (1 billion a year by 2011), and when economies are good, INTL travel does well also. Since many economic forcasters (read WSJ on Friday) think the recession could be over this upcoming September, with better economic realities coming to fruition by next Summer, it is no wonder Legacy airlines are holding steady and keeping the line, while enjoying lower fuel costs to soften any lack of passengers. But hey Max, if you think all legacies will be killed in the next two decades, then go right ahead with that.........riiiight.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

United's per share loss may be the largest, but you also must use the number of outstanding shares to get the true size of the loss. Here are the loss projections with number of shares outstanding included:

1. Delta - $700 million net loss ($1/share - 700 million outstanding shares)
2. United - $610 million net loss ($4.27 share - 143 million outstanding shares)
3. AMR - $425 million net loss ($1.52/share - 280 million outstanding shares)
4. LCC - $240 million net loss ($2/share - 120 million outstanding shares)
5. CAL - $140 million net loss ($1.10/share - 124 million outstanding shares)
6. LUV - $22 million net profit ($0.03/share - 740 million outstanding shares)

Delta also has more money on hand than anyone else. Delta can burp the amount of money Airtran has in the bank. We gambled with fuel hedges (like a lot of airlines), and lost. That will be the story of the Q1 numbers, and it gets better for the rest of the year. Ed Bastain thinks we will have a yearly profit overall. That is good. These Q1 numbers aren't a secret to anyone. And, we actually bought some hedges at the bottom too, which will help us eventually.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I don't think anyone said their isn't an international market. It is just not going to be as big as people were predicting just a few years ago. Thus, announcements like the one Delta made a few weeks ago (about post-Labor day ASM cuts) are just beginning. Either every carrier needs to quickly reduce their international ASMs or one big player needs to leave the market completely. Too many seats chasing too little money in today's economic realities.

Do you know how long the economic crisis will last? Many people who are smarter than you and me are saying it will be over sooner than later, probably end of 09 and getting better in 10. Do you think we should drop all INTL routes until then? I think we should leave it to the guys who are looking at the numbers. I hear we are parking some 744s for the Fall (3 or 4), but will bring them back online in the Spring of 10. I think they have a handle on it. Also, our cargo 742s are actually doing a lot better now for some reason, and may be kept longer. That would be interesting, eh?

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Here you go dudes from an article from CBS Marketwatch:



Delta Air Lines reports its first-quarter results on April 21, with analysts looking for a loss of $1 a share, on average. Last year the Atlanta carrier reported a loss of 69 cents a share after excluding one-time charges.

In March, Chief Executive Richard Anderson said the quarter would be its roughest for the year, with total unit revenue expected to decline 10% and operating revenue off by 14%, compared with last year. Most of that loss will come from the carrier's hedging program, he said.

Delta nonetheless expects to post a profit for the year, and investors will be looking for evidence to reinforce that prediction.
Shares of Delta closed Thursday at $7.39, up 7%.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[BrickTop]

INTL routes seem to be doing fine.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume Allegiant would jump into ATL... they are a non-competing airline (much like DL was many years ago when they were printing their own money pretty much....before they got forced into the competition). I wouldn't doubt it if WN jumped into ATL soon anyways.


That's good you aren't applying here... sounds like you would blow to fly with on a 4-day...even worse on a 10-day!

I thought this childish chatter was only found in the regional threads. Apparently the immaturity stays stapled to your forehead no matter how LARGE or small the paycheck.

 

[Max Powers]

Yeah, and an asteroid will make us all walk the globe in search for food within the next decade too.....

Wait, you forgot to note that we actually are increasing the number of people who fly domestically (1 billion a year by 2011), and when economies are good, INTL travel does well also. Since many economic forcasters (read WSJ on Friday) think the recession could be over this upcoming September, with better economic realities coming to fruition by next Summer, it is no wonder Legacy airlines are holding steady and keeping the line, while enjoying lower fuel costs to soften any lack of passengers. But hey Max, if you think all legacies will be killed in the next two decades, then go right ahead with that.........riiiight.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Hello???? You never cease to amaze me Heir General. Legacies are "holding the line" - but that is all they're doing. Domestic is slowly going to the LCCs. We will have over 400 million people in the US of A in 2020 and the legacies at best will "hold the line". My point is all the growth will be picked up from the LCC of this world.

Then the LCC will then be the legacies of the future and thence destroyed by new upstarts as soon as the credit market open up again. History always repeats itself. Ever hear of Braniff, Eastern, Pan Am, TWA etc..... This will take 20-40 years to unfold and repeat itself again and again.

 

[BrickTop]

Hello???? You never cease to amaze me Heir General. Legacies are "holding the line" - but that is all they're doing. Domestic is slowly going to the LCCs. We will have over 400 million people in the US of A in 2020 and the legacies at best will "hold the line". My point is all the growth will be picked up from the LCC of this world.

Then the LCC will then be the legacies of the future and thence destroyed by new upstarts as soon as the credit market open up again. History always repeats itself. Ever hear of Braniff, Eastern, Pan Am, TWA etc..... This will take 20-40 years to unfold and repeat itself again and again.

In 40 years we'll either have ONE or NO pilots or mass individual air based trasit systems like the Jetson's...

 

[Homer Jay]

While I know CAL's numbers are down as well, I can also attest to the fact that we are hiding money. I ferried a plane to the paint shop recently and as we disembarked, the people that met the plane were "confused" as to why we were bringing in a plane that was painted less than three years ago. The mechanic even said the plane looked great and that this was "a waste of money to paint it again." FUPM

 

[iflyhigh]

Are these numbers profit and loss. Alot different that operating profit and loss. This is the real picture and of course cash burn.