Following airlines will cease operations soon...

[Andy]

Poahi, the one advantage of old inefficient aircraft is that you can park them and forget them.
How many years has Northwest planned on parking the DC-9s? I'm sure it's been a while, just as United's been planning on parking the bulk of the 737s for several years. Airlines use them until it no longer makes financial sense. The good thing about this is when those planes are taken out of service, you have instant capacity cuts. Airlines with new aircraft and excess capacity either park planes (and those parked planes cost money in lease or debt payments) or sell them. I would expect the used aircraft market to be saturated very soon.

 

[Jimmy C. Corn]

If DL and NW does not merge, both will be back in BK court by the end of the year...check my sources..I said this was coming in JAN!!

What are your sources, Nostradamus? Sounds like a bunch of hot air to me. Even a broken watch is right twice a day. Maybe you should take the battery out of yours.

 

[Poahi]

... you can park them and forget them.

Agreed. And two of the reasons I like NWA and United is because they can weather the storm with their size and international ops.

One caveat though. The more aircraft you park, the more market share you lose and fewer bodies will fill your 330's and 777's. NWA historically had an irrational market share competition philospophy and I hope they don't go back to their old ways.

Here's the irony. I really believe fuel prices will drop significantly later this year and the surviving airlines will wrestle for that market share once the casualties are out of the way.

It's a game of endurance.

 

[Andy]

Here's the irony. I really believe fuel prices will drop significantly later this year and the surviving airlines will wrestle for that market share once the casualties are out of the way.

It's a game of endurance.

I agree with you on fuel prices. I think that'll be due to a lot of cutbacks in consumer spending/consumption. With that in mind, the airlines will be competing for fewer customers.

Yes, definitely a game of endurance. I think an airline would be better off to cut too much initially, lowering cash flows, than to cut too little and rapidly burn through cash.
I think that airlines should be more concerned about survival rather than market share. In this environment, any airline could close their doors in the blink of an eye.

 

[MINIME]

Agreed Andy,

Also, do you think that we might just have seen the dollar bottom out? I think the fact that the Fed finally admitted that there might be a recession, while bad news, it could be good for the dollar. I'm kinda thinking that it's the Pound and the Euro's turn to bleed a little. They're not immune to the credit crunch either.

I don't know, maybe wishful thinking on my part. But with a dollar comeback, we should also see cheaper prices at the pump. Perhaps putting a bandaid on the airline carnage.

 

[Andy]

Minime, I've been waiting for Trichet at the European Central Bank to start lowering their interest rates. He's still worried about inflation and is not budging. The Bank of England has made a cut or two, but also seems hesitant. The Aussies actually raised their interest rates a little while ago.
The rest of the world will eventually lower their interest rates, as their economies slow down.
The Fed's almost done cutting; they might have a couple more cuts left.
Give it another couple of months and the dollar should firm up and start climbing against foreign currencies.

I'm starting hear murmurs of the US long bond crashing in mid-May, which would likely crater the dollar. I don't know the odds of that happening (I'm hoping that it's very small), but it'd be a nightmare scenario - you'd see longer term interest rates shoot through the roof as people flee from bonds on the long end. That's gates of hell/wrath of God (in a financial context) kind of stuff - raining frogs; cats and dogs sleeping together, the plague, crops eaten by locusts, the dead rising from their graves. Well, you get the point.
Things are getting completely nutso in the bond arena - stuff that hasn't happened in our lifetimes. It's that bad. The Fed's trying to keep things moving, but all they are doing is putting off the pain. And it'll be worse than if they had simply let the markets handle the problems.

 

[IXLR8]

What about the legacy carriers....

If DL and NW does not merge, both will be back in BK court by the end of the year...check my sources..I said this was coming in JAN!!

Honestly, where do you people get some of this Sh!t..unreal...

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

Thier source is....

Honestly, where do you people get some of this Sh!t..unreal...

....Jimmy C. Corn's Avatat!!!

 

[pilotyip]

All this could mean growth a USA Jet. We are no w moving into public charter, can get away with three day charters where the airplane sits for two days, because there is no mortgage payment to make on the airframe.

 

[willNOTfly4free]

AA looking for BK, United will go to BK court, CAL may miss but will be at a disadvantage if alot of airlines go into BK protection.

No airline wants to be one of the last into BK, because there will be no money from investors. If you are going to BK you want to be one of the first in!!

It's pathetic that bankruptcy has become a business strategy.

 

[Dizel8]

The Fed's trying to keep things moving, but all they are doing is putting off the pain. And it'll be worse than if they had simply let the markets handle the problems.

While I sort of understand what the Fed is trying to do, it would also seem, that it is high time they let the "correction" happen.

Sort of like pulling off a band-aid, ten small "auches" or one long ............

Of course, I love how no one is willing to say the "R" word.

 

[Bringupthebird]

My guess is you will see the merger/frag protections evaporate the way scope did a few years ago and airlines will rapidly link up:

JetBlue/Frontier
AirTran/Southwest
Midwest/Alaska
USAirways/Spirit - Franke's Revenge

Perhaps a growth of Long-Haul charter carriers with FF agreements with Legacy carriers

 

[SFR]

Sorry, I just got back in from my 5 day trip that paid $10,349. I green slipped that one...ahhh


Anyways, I had a 3 leg commute home (ATL-3G3) This is what I found out.


Jumpseated on JetBlue first. The captain is leaving in 2 weeks to go fly corporate, he says he is worried about losing his job within 3 years. The FO is going to try and upgrade asap and get some PIC to get out!!!

Then I got on Frontier.. The FO there said all is hopeless and he went strait to the airpot bar after his trip.

My last commute home was on Colgan, the crew was in good shape, but the captain did say that his dad is a captain for Allegiant and said that they are doing ok, but will close soon.


That is it folks....data from da ********************znit. On the kiznit.


BTW, I fly for AA.

 

[PCL_128]

Sorry, I just got back in from my 5 day trip that paid $10,349. I green slipped that one...ahhh

A couple thousand furloughed pilots and you're picking up green slip flying. What a nice guy.

 

[USCtrojan]

How about ALL of the airlines just cease operations. Lets just all shut down and have a big party while the government and the public come to their senses and realize that the current model of operations in this country is flawed.

Then I guess Bin Laden's attempt at Bankrupting the United States has a hell of a headway.

Trojan