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Growth has come to a screeching slowdown, and planes are being erased from the fleet plan via sales and lease expirations that are not renewed. Its still net growth, but less than a third the growth it was a little over a year ago. 320 sales are being accelerated to half of the remaining (lower) post-deferral numbers. Maybe 6 a year, tops.

The 190 is 6 per year as well. Partly because it can't compete anywhere in the midwest. Unless we radically change our business model, it never will. We still treat new cities as JFK-FLL. IOW we price and market them so that they have to be full, every flight, every time, or we can't/refuse to make money on them. Also the factory is unable to produce any more than that without burning other customers of theirs. That's why we mutually agreed on a 66% reduced delivery sked. Lots of managerial/philosophical changes going on though, so hopefuly that changes. Expect a first class soon, that should help.

Attrition is around 150 per year. We still haven't hit the bulk of AA/TWA or DAL recalls, and most of the bottom 60% or more would bail to SWA, FEX, UPS and the legacy of their choice already. Some are holding out for post 9-11 contracts to happen and then bail (first year or even two pay at UAL, CAL and NWA would be a catestrophic pay cut for most with a family to support) but expect attrition to be 150-200 per year. That will account for over half the hiring.

Pay raises are possible, but extremely unlikely unless post 9-11 contracts start to be inked. 320 upgrade is a long, long way off for a new hire today. 190 upgrade will probably swing from 2 to 3 years and back again for quite a while though.

$43,710 is the least you will make as a new FO in either plane based on 12 months of min guarantee. Training pay is less, but breaking guarantee/holding a line adds money rapidly per hour. I'd say 50K your first year if you slack, 55 if you fly average and 60-65 if you work really hard. You can actually make a lot more if you live at the airport, and some guys do. I know a second year FO who will probably top 120 this year, but that's all he does.

Also compare insurance plans at your regional with Blue's. Some are better, others the same, a few worse. This could be a serious financial swing in your consideration. As with any move, calsulate not only how long it would take for you to make what you are making now, but also how long it will take for you to make up for the loss of income (plus interest/investment appreciation) since you mentioned you would be taking a pay cut.

Best of luck with your decision and welcome aboard if you chose to work here. I hope my post didn't sount too negative. I'm just trying to give you an honest assessment of what to expect. Overall its not a bad place to be, though it could be (and needs to be) better. In any case, neither you or the company will benefit from failing to meet your expectations and leaving you disappointed and regretting your decision.

Know what you're getting into and make the best choice you can for you and your family.

Appreciate your candor. This was refreshingly direct and honest. JB might work for some and not for others. Don't expect the growth of 2-3 years ago - you need to go in with the right expectations in terms of upgrade, health care, raises, etc. Do your research first before you enter - ask a lot of questions.

It will be interesting to watch how JB, SWA, Air Tran, Spirit, Skybus and Virgin America respond to nearly $100 oil and a potential "light" recession as consumers start to reduce "discretionary" spending. The legacies are not completely immune either, but they do have some increasing international exposure that serves as a slight hedge. I am guessing that grounding planes might be one option (reducing variable costs) if $100 oil becomes a reality for awhile. Wish us all luck if that happens!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Do y'all get bonuses when you have to dump the Lav? At least nobody can see the blue juice stain on your blue shirt...


um, IF I were to dump our lav, no blue juice in there...vaccum style. Well, unless there is still bluejuice in the tank. Hm.


...your profile...10,000 hrs. Wow...and still in an 50 seater.
 
um, IF I were to dump our lav, no blue juice in there...vaccum style. Well, unless there is still bluejuice in the tank. Hm.


...your profile...10,000 hrs. Wow...and still in an 50 seater.


At least he hasnt left a Capt. job to sit right seat in a 190.
 
At least he hasnt left a Capt. job to sit right seat in a 190.

Hey, you seem like kind of a dick! Haven't we flown together. Yeah, you came downstairs on the layover with your "Respect" T-shirt wearing your company id. Then you got wasted on appletini's and got shot down by our 65 year old lady FA. Man.... good times huh?
 
At least he hasnt left a Capt. job to sit right seat in a 190.

1. Iron City Blue hit the points head on.

2. I left top twenty-five percent at a huge regional, based at home, and my precious Captain job to sit right seat in the 190. Don't regret it for a minute... to each their own though. If the four stripes is what gets you off, great. (disclaimer: commuting from the west coast to reserve would make me think twice, however).
 
Hey, you seem like kind of a dick! Haven't we flown together. Yeah, you came downstairs on the layover with your "Respect" T-shirt wearing your company id. Then you got wasted on appletini's and got shot down by our 65 year old lady FA. Man.... good times huh?

Keep letting mgmt. feed you the juice. I guess you are one of the ones that are against a union. You would probably sacifice pilots junior to you to save your a$$. CBA now!!!! We need one bad!!!! And dont get me confused. I sit in the top 200 and fought tooth and nail for better 190 pay. I happen to care about guys on the 190 and guys junior to me. I wont sacifice the junior folks for the senior folks. Get off your high horse!!!!
 
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Keep letting mgmt. feed you the juice. I guess you are one of the ones that are against a union. You would probably sacifice pilots junior to you to save your a$$. CBA now!!!! We need one bad!!!! And dont get me confused. I sit in the top 200 and fought tooth and nail for better 190 pay. I happen to care about guys on the 190 and guys junior to me. I wont sacifice the junior folks for the senior folks. Get off your high horse!!!!

Hey man, just chill. I'm just trying to lighten the mood. I'm not against an in house union nor do I wan't to sell out anyone junior to me. I understand you are in the top 200 and paid your dues... yada yada yada... I'm just tired of being preached to. It gets old after awhile you know what I mean. I'll drink an appletinini for you tonight, you know for old times sake!
 

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