Flying Blind: Deregulation reconsidered

[Flopgut]

I agree with everything Igneausy2 has to say.

I would expand with: CAL trained a couple thousand 737 pilots with 1 new gen sim and two old sims that wouldn't cost 5 grand on ebay. The heavy lifting in a training environment is the human effort (software). Especially in an AQP environment. ALPA could train double that amount with the same amount of hardware. We have the human side of the equation very well covered. Individual airline training programs are indeed superlative. Imagine bringing the best training minds together across all ALPA carriers? Wow! Some of the brighter minds in this business have recently insisted standardizing the way we equip and maintain airline fleets needs to be standardized. The same could be argued for how we train to fly them. ALPA should merchandize that and go forward. I'm less inclined to believe we need to delve into initial flight schools. (ALPA should have years ago, but it's too late) 3-4 years and there will be a shortage of transport category pilots available to fly, we want to be in position for that.

As far as flow charting initial steps? Here is what I have on my brain right now, but I'm still playing with it: The world is flat (Friedman says so), so let's take advantage of that. An ALPA training program doen't need to necessarily be here. We should shop that around. Matter of fact, I think we all need to be in a position to have certification we know will be in place down the road. Even if ALPA didn't try to be a player in numbers of pilots, regular supply and demand might lure a large number of us to fly in other parts of the world. But when did this economy and govt allow us (airline pilots) the fundamental right of supply and demand??! I wouldn't doubt for a second that if enough US pilots left for greener pastures, oversight would do something to make that impossible for us. We need to think of ourselves as a nation. A Nation of pilots and we need think big picture. There is a lot we can do with this operationally that would make things better for everybody. Consider as well: ALPA getting involved in dispatch functions? Outside the box, I know, I'm just putting that out there. The more things we get involved in operationally, the better.

 

[acpilot]

If this was made the standard about 95% of the pilots flying, myself included would be out of a job. I only wrote a 29 and 1280, 50 years ago. BTW in the end the consumer will determine how much airline pilots are paid. If regulation raises prices, there will be fewer riders that will result in fewer pilots. All that being said it is still a great job, and puts you in the upper end of income earners in the US.

There's no reason one can't make multiple attempts. If I remember correctly, they only take your best score. I don't think it's averaged like the LSAT.

In any event, you're right:

-Regulation will eliminate pilot positions...and that will leave an even larger surplus of pilots willing to work for pennies.

-The vast majority of consumers will ALWAYS choose the lowest fare.

 

[jmreii]

If this was made the standard about 95% of the pilots flying, myself included would be out of a job. I only wrote a 29 and 1280, 50 years ago. BTW in the end the consumer will determine how much airline pilots are paid. If regulation raises prices, there will be fewer riders that will result in fewer pilots. All that being said it is still a great job, and puts you in the upper end of income earners in the US.

I got to hand it to you yip, for some reason people do not understand this consumer driven economy which will determine what fares are charged and excepted in-order for the market to pay their employees. I thank my lucky stars that I got a degree in something other than aviation. The 70's had a few airlines and a few airplanes with even fewer pilots, mainly military. I did not ride on a commercial airplane until I had all my ratings and had been flying for 10 years.

 

[pilotyip]

-Regulation will eliminate pilot positions...and that will leave an even larger surplus of pilots willing to work for pennies.

-The vast majority of consumers will ALWAYS choose the lowest fare.

I got to hand it to you yip, for some reason people do not understand this consumer driven economy which will determine what fares are charged and excepted in-order for the market to pay their employees.

I not understand why when you post this kind of stuff which, in my humble opinion, reflects reality, you are often set upon as being part of the problem, unprofessional and a flame baiter?

 

[igneousy2]

quoting...acpilot


That would be nice. Do you think ALPA will shell out the dough to help you there? Do you think the campaign should include 91 and 135?

No absolutely not...this is the AIR LINE Pilots Association...If you want to help out the 91 and 135 guys join AOPA.


...



That will scare the crap out of the flying public. They think everything works perfectly all the time. Why would you want to broadcast that airliners have problems on a daily basis?

Because I want people to know that it matters who your pilots are and give a damn and decide what airline they buy their ticket on based on if they are ALPA pilots in the cockpit or not. I want people to look in the cockpit and praise Jesus that we are there.

Right now the word on the street is that flying is SAFE! In fact, the airplanes they fly THEMSELVES...in fact...flying is safer than driving a car! So what else is a lay person to believe. Joe Average can drive a car...shoot why do we even have pilots up there at all...if it's so safe, and if it's so automated...and if it's EASIER than driving a car that even I can do everyday...then why SHOULD they get any more money then a Real Estate Agent or a Payroll Clerk or an Assistant Manger at Wal Mart?

I also challenge you to show PROOF that people would fly less because they felt flying was more dangerous. People still drive everyday and every day on the news I watch there is the story of at least 1 fatal accident EVERYDAY. After 9/11 people only stopped flying for less than a year before the loads returned. Continental has had one near-miss (Denver) and one fatal in less than a year and they are still going strong. In 6 months no lay person that doesn't live in Buffalo will remember the crash. I haven't spoken to a single person that has ever not taken a trip because they didn't feel safe. The people that are so afraid to fly that they would avoid a trip ALREADY don't fly.

REALLY? What about pt61 trained pilots?

There are too many of them.

What about the competent 1500hr ATPs?

There are too many of them.

This is exactly what keeps us paralized...everybody knows an uber-qualified Part-61 guy flying in the Alaskan Bush that wouldn't be qualified. First, he probably doesn't WANT to fly for an airline, second, if he wants to then the message is YES he needs to go to a special school.

While in college I worked at a State Circuit Court. Everybody at the courthouse knew that if you wanted to know what the law was or what the procedure was in our section of the law you asked one of a few court clerks that had been there FOREVER. Even the attorneys went to the court clerks with questions. These were not trained Attorneys, however, they knew the law and every applicable precedent front ways, side-ways, and back-wards. If I needed an attorney I would prefer to be represented by one of these clerks then most of the attorneys there, most of whom were less than 5 years out of law school. I wouldn't be able to hire them ONLY because they were not graduates of an ABA approved law school nor had any of them passed the bar exam...even though I know they would be of far better assistance then one of the "real lawyers."

The fact that a certain individual that could do the job, maybe even be great at the job would or would not be qualified is IRRELEVANT.

Besides...there obviously would need to be grand-father provisions as there is in any rule. We don't have the schools yet and we certainly aren't going to fire every current airline pilot. How many people on here have your High Performance or your Complex airplane endorsement signed? I don't. The rules changed, but only for the up-and-comers. That's how it has always worked.

...


This will drive costs up. There are already students graduating with $100K in loans...what makes you think that the "accredited" school will change anything.

Exactly - Barriers to entry... just like the lawyers and doctors...I love it. You shouldn't be able to be an airline pilot without a $150k-$200k investment and 3-5 years of your life...just like the lawyers and doctors.

...

It sounds great, but in the end, the $29 fare will win every time.

Right now this is correct...so we can either a. continue doing the same thing which is essentially nothing...or b. try to do something different. Damn, why do we even bother to pay the 1.9%?

What if we could get it so that consumers actually DID give a damn which airline they bought there seats on. Not possible? Perhaps...but hey we'll never know because it's never been done.

Is Coca-Cola or Pepsi the cheapest Cola at the Super-market? Are they number 1 and number 2? hell yea!

We as Airline Pilots have a brand problem...we haven't made people CARE about who is flying the airplane they are on because we have towed the line with the industry that flying is safe...all airlines are safe..."Airline flying is safe"...All Airline flying is the SAME...yada...yada...yada.

We need to MAKE people care...if we make them care then the $29 fare ISN'T going to win and we may even create some people willing to pay a little extra.

 

[pilotyip]

What about non-union airlines?

We need to MAKE people care...if we make them care then the $29 fare ISN'T going to win and we may even create some people willing to pay a little extra.

If you add too much cost to a ticket, you provide an opportunity for new airlines to start up. The UAW tried to control the marketplace for years. You see what I got them. Here is how the UAW does it; they reach a deal with a single company, then go to the next company and say match it or you will be shutdown and all the new cars being sold will be built someplace else, then they go to the next company and repeat. When the auto companies where rolling in money it was a good deal for all. But over the last 30 years it has eliminated 70% of the union jobs, gave great raise to non-union companies, and now it is concession time. Now the Airlines could follow the same path as the UAW and it would be great for 30% of those who still had jobs. This is also great for the non-ALPA airlines that would fly all the passengers when the ALPA pilots were on strike.

 

[Lear70]

If you add too much cost to a ticket, you provide an opportunity for new airlines to start up. The UAW tried to control the marketplace for years. You see what I got them. Here is how the UAW does it; they reach a deal with a single company, then go to the next company and say match it or you will be shutdown and all the new cars being sold will be built someplace else, then they go to the next company and repeat. When the auto companies where rolling in money it was a good deal for all. But over the last 30 years it has eliminated 70% of the union jobs, gave great raise to non-union companies, and now it is concession time. Now the Airlines could follow the same path as the UAW and it would be great for 30% of those who still had jobs. This is also great for the non-ALPA airlines that would fly all the passengers when the ALPA pilots were on strike.

Not if you have LEGISLATION that PREVENTS a start-up from using anyone but pilots accredited through this process. Renders this part of your argument moot.

Again, similar to the legal and medical professions. You don't see competing U.S. hospitals starting up and getting doctors out of Mexico or Brazil to come and operate on Americans. It's because the doctors MUST have come from an AMA accredited school with specific requirements to practice.

Yes, it would drive up ticket prices. Yes, fewer would fly. Yes, many would lose their jobs, but most would stay employed, and it would make the jobs that DO remain worth having.

Something has to change, YIP... you may be happy for things to continue this way... I'm not, and neither are the majority of pilots out there.

 

[pilotyip]

So Re-reg is the answer

Something has to change, YIP... you may be happy for things to continue this way... I'm not, and neither are the majority of pilots out there.

It is not that I am happy or unhappy, that is irrelevant. Few people have had as rocky of a career as me. But I am coming out just fine into retirement. I am just looking the impact of regulation and its effects. I am looking at the reality of the situation as I see it. So Re-reg is the answer is that what you are telling me? There is down side to re-reg in the elimination of jobs. I would suppose that as long as your job is not one of the jobs eliminated, you would support. Too bad about all the other guys that loose their jobs. Is that what I am hearing? Again back to my solution what is wrong with using the ACT of 30 and SAT of 1300 as the screening tool to limit the supply of pilots?

 

[Lear70]

So Re-reg is the answer is that what you are telling me?

It's one of the options, yes. I've been preaching re-regulation or FULL government DE-regulation (and the associative airline failures that would come with no one bailing them out) for a couple years now.

There is down side to re-reg in the elimination of jobs.

I believe I've already said that.

Repeatedly.

I would suppose that as long as your job is not one of the jobs eliminated, you would support. Too bad about all the other guys that loose their jobs. Is that what I am hearing?

No. That's what you're INTERPRETING.

I believe my track record of biting the bullet for the right reasons is well-documented. If you have any questions about it, feel free to read back over my posts regarding AirTran the last 2 years.

Again back to my solution what is wrong with using the ACT of 30 and SAT of 1300 as the screening tool to limit the supply of pilots?

Because it doesn't adequately address the supply issues.

Just because someone is educated doesn't mean they have the aptitude to be a pilot. Hell, I scored a 32 on the stupid ACT back in '89; it's not that difficult of a test, there's probably study gouges for it, and with an unlimited number of retries, eventually most would pass it.

You need a true governing body that can actively restrict the number of pilots coming through the pipeline, just like the ABA and AMA do, to make this idea work. Restrict the supply, restrict the ability of airlines to recruit foreign pilots or push an MPL solution to solve their staffing problem, and the problem gets fixed. No more whipsawing, no more lowest bidder, and a TRUE threat of company shut-down when a pilot group goes on strike.

Tougher to implement. Doctors and attorneys back in the early part of this century were smart enough to do it before the bureaucracy of our government system became so big that it now becomes almost problematic...

 

[pilotyip]

It's one of the options, yes. I've been preaching re-regulation or FULL government DE-regulation (and the associative airline failures that would come with no one bailing them out) for a couple years now..

Truely best of luck in your efforts to restrict what is now a free market.