Flex Furloughees: Another issue

[DUATS]

Some rumors says recalls are imminent; others say they simply won't happen. Here's one more issue that might impact management's decision.

I looked at an old seniority list. Best I can tell, the 25 most senior guys on furlough break down by fleet like this: 9 LR45; 8 LR60; 6 604; 2 300. Does not exactly mirror the fleet.

Could they be trying to wait until after 3/29/2011, just to avoid bringing back guys in fleets that have shrunk? Or re-type some guys coming back?

Speculation anyone?

 

[doh]

When they start hiring again, they will incur the same training cost per pilot regardless of whether they retype (or type in another fleet) a new hire or a recall. I see no financial incentive to leave furloughs out on the street.

 

[FastJP4]

Not much optimisim regarding a recall from an ACP I spoke with recently while on my 30 days off. Hopefully that's inaccurate for the furloughed guys - who knows with the "leadership" of this company what will happen.

Alot of overtime being taken and chartering.

 

[ArtVandalay]

I think recalls will happen sooner than anyone thinks.

 

[Boxer]

Make it happen Art. I'm getting kind of bored and my wife thinks I should have a job.

 

[unclepetey]

I think recalls will happen sooner than anyone thinks.

Care to elaborate?

 

[Flex-ible]

I think recalls will happen sooner than anyone thinks.

I've talked to a couple of crews recently who agree. They speculated classes might be September and/or October, with calls 30 days in advance. Of course, last week's economic news didn't add to anyone's enthusiasm.

 

[ArtVandalay]

I can't elaborate other than just seeing what is happening across the fleets. It IS getting busy and strangely busy for summertime. The sentiment sounds good is what I'm saying and based on how busy it is now, this winter is gonna be crazy I think.

 

[unclepetey]

I can't elaborate other than just seeing what is happening across the fleets. It IS getting busy and strangely busy for summertime. The sentiment sounds good is what I'm saying and based on how busy it is now, this winter is gonna be crazy I think.

Are they selling more shares lately?

 

[johnsonrod]

Sounds promising. I know a few furloughed Flex pilots - they loved their flying there pre-furlough. If pilots are recalled in the near term, which fleets will likely get the inbound pilots? CL300? Lear 40/45? Which fleets are still growing (or not contracting or losing owners)?

 

[DirtyBeech]

The recalls would most likely be to the 300 and 45 fleets.

I don't see how we get through the next peak period without recalls or a ridiculous amount of charter. Where the balance for that is I don't know, and in the defense of our "leadership", they have to take into account a probable downturn due to the policies of the dear leader in Washington.

It's a tough nut, but that's why they're supposed to be the managers.

 

[gret]

Maybe Flex is busy, but they would be the exception.

Per ARG/US, frac flying has been down month over month for the past three months and is up less than 10% from 2009 levels. Most of that increase is from turbo props.

Overall flying has been flat for almost four months. Here is the site with the info-

http://www.traqpak.com/
​

Go to their press releases on the home page, or Google, and you can get the breakdown for the monthly breakouts of Part 91, Part 135, and fracs.

 

[can99]

Maybe fractional flying is down but card sales are up it seems... there is a post on the marquis card program somewhere on this. I know I would rather buy a prepaid card from a Fractional like Flex or Netjets, CS than a charter company, of course I would have to figure out a way to earn a whole lot more to buy in myself..

I cant see that info though on that link, only the business aircraft flights as a whole(not that I don't doubt it as there has been lots of article about the change in the industry dynamics).

 

[gret]

The info is tracked by tail number so they don't care whether it is a card or a frac owner flight. They are combined as frac flights.


Here is a link to the current press release which I mentioned has additional data-

http://www.aviationresearch.com/Portals/0/files/PR%20TRAQPak%20Aircraft%20Activity%20June%202010.pdf
​

 

[DirtyBeech]

We've been running consistently at 104-108% of projections for the year, though it's recently slowed down in the last month or so as the summer doldrums have hit. Even then, we're doing 97%+ of our projections.

As for cards, I've had several rotations lately where I didn't fly a single 91k leg.

 

[can99]

Wonder how they get the info if the flight is a 91/ 91k / 135 flight ? They would have to poll the owner wouldn't they... or is there another way to find this out easy....

 

[gret]

For Immediate Release

ARGUS Releases June Business Aircraft Activity

Cincinnati, Ohio, July 5, 2010[FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]….ARGUS [/FONT][/FONT]TRAQPak [FONT=Arial,Arial][FONT=Arial,Arial]data is serial-number specific aircraft arrival and departure information on all IFR flights in the US (including Alaska and Hawaii). The tables below reflect business aircraft activity data for June 1-30, 2010 vs. May 1-31, 2010 and June 1-30, 2010 vs. June 1-30, 2009 respectively. Note: Part 135 charter certificate flight activity reflects flights of aircraft on Part 135 charter certificates irrespective of the mission type. [/FONT][/FONT]

 

[can99]

So what its saying is its about as reliable as a politician's word..:erm:

 

[gret]

So what its saying is its about as reliable as a politician's word..:erm:

Perhaps...do you have anything better?

 

[can99]

optimism and hope... like all other furlough people from flex