Finally, some rational thought on oil...

[wrxpilot]

I apologize for clogging FI with yet another oil post, but I thought this warranted its own post...

Out of all the stuff I've seen lately, this actually sounds sane and devoid of hype:
http://www.airdisaster.com/forums/showthread.php?t=72490

JF, what's your opinion?

 

[jetflyer]

WRX,

Nice article with good points.

The rising prices will definitely bring on new supplies. The big question is if the new supplies will increase OVERALL production of oil or just SLOW THE DECLINE or KEEP LEVEL the OIL production?

From reading the DOE study on Peak Oil, and other studies, Canada's and Venezuela's oil sands, coal to oil, shale to oil, etc. will probably just slow the decline after peak oil coming anywhere from now to 2010. We'll still have to live with less every year. There is just going to be such a massive amount of oil going into decline.

The more of these alternatives we can bring on the better it will be though. After a good decade or two we'll be in great shape.

We should strive to make this decade or two as painless as possible and the rising price of oil like that article says will surely bring on a lot of much needed investment.

So in reality the high price of oil is doing what so many others and I have been saying we need to do. Invest, Invest, Invest in ENERGY so the future won't be as bad. So Thank You high prices! The earlier the better because I think we still have a couple years till we hit the peak of oil production. The more investment that occurs, the better our future will be.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Bill Clinton Acknowledges Peak Oil!!
From a speech found here: http://www.egovmonitor.com/node/5728

The Indians and Chinese are in this huge fight now to see who can get the most oil. We may be at a point of peak oil production. You may see $100 a barrel oil in the next two or three years, but what still is driving this globalization is the idea that is you cannot possibly get rich, stay rich and get richer; if you don’t release more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

This is big that Bill Clinton acknowledged Peak Oil in his speech. He is the first major politician I have ever seen acknowledge Peak Oil. It is thought to be political suicide, but well his political life is over so....

The Politicians don't want to end the "PARTY".

Woolsey the ex-CIA chief has also acknowledged Peak Oil.

Here is a link where Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett who has been preaching moving towards alternatives met with George W. Bush last summer. Bush knows we're "ADDICTED TO OIL" and that we're going to be forced into withdrawal soon.
Here is the link:
http://www.bartlett.house.gov/latestnews.asp?ARTICLE2900=7308


Like the article that WRX pilot posted, the high prices will probably do more good to avert bad peak oil consequences than anyone talking about it. Because if politicians start talking about peak oil, people will start pulling their money out of stock markets and investing in gold and slow their consumption. So the acknowledgement of peak oil itself by a politician can cause a recession. They have to keep blaming it on OPEC, etc.

Jet

 

[Frac Daddy]

WRX,

Nice article with good points.

The rising prices will definitely bring on new supplies. The big question is if the new supplies will increase OVERALL production of oil or just SLOW THE DECLINE or KEEP LEVEL the OVERALL production?

From reading the DOE study on Peak Oil, and other studies, Canada's and Venezuela's oil sands, coal to oil, shale to oil, etc. will probably just slow the decline after peak oil coming anywhere from now to 2010. We'll still have to live with less every year. There is just going to be such a massive amount of oil going into decline.

The more of these alternatives we can bring on the better it will be though. After a good decade or two we'll be in great shape.

We should strive to make this decade or two as painless as possible and the rising price of oil like that article says will surely bring on a lot of much needed investment.

So in reality the high price of oil is doing what so many others and I have been saying we need to do. Invest, Invest, Invest in ENERGY so the future won't be as bad. So Thank You high prices! The earlier the better because I think we still have a couple years till we hit the peak of oil production. The more investment that occurs, the better our future will be.

Jet

Careful there, Jet, you're starting to sound like me.

 

[timeoff]

The prices we are seeing in today's crude futures contracts are geopolitically induced. The Iranian leader's touts and chest thumping has caused futures traders to buy (ie drive up prices) in anticipation of any UN sanctions. Iran's threatening to withdrawl from their nuclear nonproliferation agreements has brought oil up to 75 bucks. When this pans out to be nothing but hype, oil will retract back to the mid to low 60's.

Keep in mind that oil contracts were trading at 57 less than two months ago, and trading in the 40's less than a year ago. What goes up must come down.

IMO, demand will certainly NOT support 100 a barrel oil or $5/gal gas. At least not in the next 10-15 years.

 

[jetflyer]

LOL Frac,

You know what my worst case nightmare scenarios are.

As Matthew Simmons responded on CNN last Saturday and Sunday, when asked what his worst case scenarios were regarding Peak Oil:
"My worst case scenarios are so bad, You really don't want to go there".

Those worse case scenarios of WWIII and collapse of society unfortunately are a possibility. I've been trying to be more positive lately and upbeat because I think people are actually listening to me now, which is scaring me enough right there! I have to be more responsible.

Our future is really going to depend on TWO things:

FIRST: How fast will oil decline? The North Sea Oil production and Australia saw declines over 14%. Mexico's Cantarell oil field is supposed to start declining this year. They're predicting declines of over 13%. The U.S. after 1970 only declined about 3%. Why? Because we didn't use the Newest and greatest superstraws of modern technology to get the oil out of the ground.

A 3% decline will be no big deal. A 8% per year decline would mean losing more than 1 and a half times more the Canadian Oil sands will provide in 2015 year over year.

It's all unknown. Really we should all pray for a 3% decline after peak!

SECOND: When will people take this seriously and how fast can we ramp up the alternatives to oil?

This is the one thing we can control. We should have done something every year since the 1970's like Brazil has, but that time is gone. We have to hurry now....

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Question: Does anyone know why South Korea, Britain, France, and Japan are not going to be affected as badly financially by rising oil prices as the U.S.??

Answer: They took the high oil costs of the 1970's seriously and did things to offset their dependence on oil. The number one most effective thing they did? Raise gas taxes. I'm not a liberal and I usually think taxes are a bad thing, but not when they come to a NON-RENEWABLE resource.

Higher gas taxes have meant that our neighbors across the globe have seen prices between $3-$6.00/gallon for decades. They've adjusted over a period of twenty five years to what we're going to have to adjust to very quickly from our high gas prices.

--They bought diesel vehicles which I've heard get about 40% more miles per gallon.
--They drive smaller vehicles unlike our Hummer Nation.
--They have very large public transportation systems.
--People live closer to work.

It's too late now for us to raise gas taxes, but we should have decades ago. If someone proposed a gas tax now they'd be shot and drowned in the bottom of an oil well.....

High gas taxes in the U.S. would have prevented some of the urban sprawl we have now. More people would live in condos close to town and more people would ride the bus. Those that did drive would be driving a Diesel Volkswagen Jetta.

--High gasoline prices from the 1970's till now brought on by high gas taxes would have also spurred the development of alternatives to oil like ethanol which Brazil has been working on since the 1970's.

We might have also by now had my dream of a Bio-Diesel-Electric Hybrid Plug-IN to the Electric Grid Nation. How great would that be? You would plug your car in for 50-60 miles of electric driving and then drive on the bio-fuels as a regular hybrid after that. The fuel could also be from coal to oil as long as we sequestered the carbon and shoved it back in the ground.

Most importantly high gas taxes since the 1970's would have made this coming energy crisis not as hard to deal with. Oh well, I'll stop living in the past....

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Five more advantages I thought of that would have come from high gas taxes for the last 25 years like in other nations:

--With Higher gas taxes maybe our National and State debts wouldn't be as large.

--If we didn't need as much oil today we probably would be saving hundreds of billions a year by not being in the Middle East right now.

--Global Warming(you know that thing liberals made up) wouldn't be as big of a deal.

--The World wouldn't hate us as much.

--Terrorism would not be an issue and 9/11 would never have occurred, because of us not being in the Middle East. We would have cared less about Saudi Arabia and wouldn't have needed them for anything. Plus the President wouldn't have embarrassed himself by holding King Abdullah's hand on national television!

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Plus the oil companies wouldn't be getting as rich.

Even more important Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Libya, Sudan, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, etc. wouldn't be getting as many of our and other countries hard earned dollars right now.

Our trade deficits wouldn't be as large. The money would be staying here for coal to oil, ethanol and other bio-fuels and power generation for the plug-in hybrids.

Sorry for my rant. I either tell you guys my thoughts or my wife and she doesn't wanna hear it!! lol

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Two more thoughts:

We might also be running our recip and jet engines on oil made from coal or shale by now or even found a way to make ethanol into a jet fuel.

The airlines would also be in great shape right now.

Jet

 

[FN FAL]

Those worse case scenarios of WWIII and collapse of society unfortunately are a possibility. I've been trying to be more positive lately and upbeat because I think people are actually listening to me now, which is scaring me enough right there! I have to be more responsible.

Our future is really going to depend on TWO things:

I) "Two men enter, one man leave!"

II) Cruising the post-apocalyptic desert in Mad Max dune buggies.

 

[jdlilfan]

II) Cruising the post-apocalyptic desert in Mad Max dune buggies.

sign me up!

 

[FN FAL]

sign me up!

You'll have to get your gear ready, a leather biker jacket with sleeves ripped off and studs, would be a good start.

Not to be confused with Stud Boy clothing...you'll never make it Beyond Thunderdome if you show up wearing that stuff. I knew a guy that showed up wearing that gear, once. Once.

 

[jdlilfan]

II) Cruising the post-apocalyptic desert in Mad Max dune buggies.

Actually I was thinking #2 would be Kevin Costner in "Waterworld"

 

[FN FAL]

Actually I was thinking #2 would be Kevin Costner in "Waterworld"

Or Gregory Peck, in "On the Beach". I suppose you could fill in the blank on number two. Whichever one it is, just don't be bringing any stud boy suits or spandex.

 

[leardawg]

The Omega Man? (Neville. Neeevvviiillle!).

http://datacore.sciflicks.com/the_omega_man/images/the_omega_man_large_01.jpg