Fedex Seat Bid

[AlbieF15]

Goose...I do hope you are right. And I'm not trying to joust with you on this issue. But...if you take 700 or so retirements on the books for the next 5 years, take a look at our 2nd officer positions. Seems like about 200+ on the -10 and about 350 on the 727. As we replace those jets with 2-man crewed jets a lot of the bodies will be absorbed as guys retire out of the system. Some guys will stay on the panel until the bitter end (LCAs and over 60, etc), so by my math I see a right seat in few years, but stuck at the bottom and not moving anywhere fast....if we don't grow.

You are correct in assuming growth in international is our biggest hope. A model manning for a domestic jet is about 5 crews/jet, but an international workhorse like the MD 11 goes at 8-9 crews per plane. Bottom line is 10% increase in international flying will bring more guys on line than a similar domestic increase.

Postal contract? Who knows? I know we do a great job and the customer is satisfied, so that has to be worth something on the next round. SWA, JB, and FedEx all have great customer service as part of their product definition, and folks generally like our service. As long as we take care of job one we should have work to do.

Again...love the place, love the job, and work with a great bunch of guys. Maybe swinging and missing the ANC MD11 by 50 numbers or so so many times has beaten me down. Maybe there is another hiring wave on the back side of our new contract--I hope so! I've heard the rumors of "good news around the corner" and "European domicile" and a bunch of other ones lately, so maybe we will all end up advancing before too long. In the meantime, I don't complain about my "stagnating" upgrade flow in front of all my furloughed buddies at the guard. Just having a job today is something to be thankful for...

Now go find us some more juicy rumors from your MEM contacts. We are all ready to listen!

 

[Goose17]

3 to 2 - not over night

Everything I hear on the street says the switch from 3 holers to 2 holers will be much slower than people think. There has been a lot of 737 rumors over the last couple months, and I have expressed concern to guys "in the know" about the 3 to 2 place switch. What I get in response is... the 727 isn't going away anytime soon. The 737 will mostly be "in addition", but there will be some 727s that do get phased out. The 100s are slowly heading off the property as well as some 200s that came up for checks, only to discover some corrosion problems. The 737 program will be slow to start (small initial group) and their will be lots of logistical hurdles to overcome. Things like sims, a training syllabus, publications, and others. I have also heard to expect a small group of 300s and 400s which will be flown with round dials for some time. Later on, as the 727 is totally being phased out, we would get new 737s and convert the round dial type 73's to have common cockpit with the new 73's - just another rumor I have heard.

Speaking of common cockpit. I also hear the MD-10 program is not what FedEx wants anymore. It made sence with aircraft prices a few years ago, but no longer is fiscally sound with aircraft prices in the toilet. I hear lots of discussion on FedEx looking for options on getting out of the program. That being said, I would expect the DC-10 program to be around for quite some time too. Notice the manning picture. As the MD-10 conversion was in full swing, guys were bidding off the 10 at record pace (back seat excluded - over 60 guys). Now, they are short in the front of the 10. The Captain seat even had advance volunteer recently if I am not mistaken. A 727 flex instructor Captain I flew with a couple weeks ago said he will probably bid for the 10 this summer. He said they had a TON of Captains as "pay only" (in training to go to a different aircraft) and they are undermanned.

On our company website, notice the fleet plan only goes through next year. I think they are in a slight panic (another rumor I hear frequently) in regards to aircraft aquisition. The 727 and the DC-10 will be sticking around until we have squeezed the last operational dollar from their airframes. Sure we will be picking up 2-place aircraft, but the transition should be so slow that I don't think we will feel it in the seniority list.

One additional thought. Aquiring another narrow body aircraft (737) could be very good for us back seaters. This is another discussion I hear periodically... Assuming the pay is par with the 727; both narrow bodies. The guys in the front of the 727 tell me there is no incentive for them to go through training on a new plane only to do the same flying for the same pay. I wouldn't expect wide body F/Os to train for a narrow body F/O seat (pay reduction). Some wide body F/Os might train for the left seat (slight pay increase), but like the 727 I would not expect a ton of guys to switch. This leaves a lot of vacancies on the 737 for back seaters from the 727 and possibly the DC-10.

But when it comes right down to the details, who the freak knows. All we can do is speculate and keep our ear to the tracks.

I still think there is a bright future.

Goose17

 

[AlbieF15]

737s would be good for engineers wanting a right seat. Unless the 737 went to a guy's hometown, why would you give up "window heat, pitot heat, what's to eat?" for walkarounds, haz paperwork, etc etc. I gotta think FOs in the 27 have it pretty good. Any FO's got other opinions?

 

[TonyC]

Wow, a new bedtime story for my kids!




Thanks!

 

[klhoard]

727 F/O thoughts

Yeah, Goose spends too damm much time thinking. . . .

 

[Falconjet]

727 FO

I agree. Why in the world would a 72 FO give up the free ride for the same pay and similar trips? I don't see that happening.

As to the retirement of the 72, as you often hear in the AOC, when the last A380 is delivered to the boneyard after being retired the crew will jumpseat back to Memphis in a 727.

I think that is a very telling indicator of how long the venerable jurassic jet will be on the purple property.

FJ

 

[Huck]

I seem to recall the DAL Express 737's went ridiculously junior in MCO for these very reasons....

 

[AlbieF15]

You never know but...

Looks like about 11 new vacancies or so after this practice bid. Last bid when vacancies weren't filled at 100%, movement was quite stagnated. I think I moved up as much on this 15 captain bid as I did on the last 50 captain bid.

In the big picture this may not mean a thing, but good luck to the poolies and I hope you are all in April classes! Looks like there is slowly but surely a bit of movement.

 

[ERJ - Jay]

Flight International Magazine
March 2, 2004

"FedEx Invites 737 Conversion Bids"

BRENDAN SOBIE / SINGAPORE

Specialists vie for work to convert up to 50 aircraft

Boeing 737-300/400 cargo conversion suppliers are responding to a request for proposals (RFP) from FedEx Express for 25 aircraft plus 25 options.

FedEx has asked Taiwan's Inter-Continental Aviation Services (ICAS), Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) and Pemco Aviation Group to price their 737 conversion products. The RFP suggests FedEx has selected the 737-300/400 over the Boeing 757-200 as the replacement for its fleet of over 100 Boeing 727-100/200s (Flight International, 15-21 July 2003). But sources say FedEx is still looking at a cargo version of the 737-900/900X for its long-term needs.

They add that proposals include conversions at several sites. ICAS is proposing converting aircraft at Taiwanese maintenance and repair organisation Air Asia; IAI at its own facility in Israel or at Garuda Maintenance Facility AeroAsia in Indonesia; and Pemco at its own facility in Alabama or at new partner Malaysia Airlines.

FedEx may also pursue its own supplemental type certificate (STC) rather than using the STC already held by IAI or Pemco, or the new STC ICAS plans to apply for next year with assistance from partners Boeing and Flight Structures. FedEx is looking at a variety of sources for the aircraft, including leasing.

FedEx is expected to replace its 727 fleet quickly to avoid forthcoming airworthiness directives and maintenance overhauls. Sources say FedEx's 737-300/400 purchase could be much larger than 50 aircraft and be spread across several conversion centres.

ICAS, IAI and Pemco declined to comment, citing non-disclosure agreements with FedEx.