The last two times I jumpseated on CAL mainline I asked the crews about future hiring. Both crews stated that with age 60 retirements as well, their current furloughs, and their current projected fleet plan, CAL will have to begin hiring within the next two years. One captain stated if they didn't have this latest round of 175 furloughs he thought they would be hiring by the middle of 2004. And this was with just age 60 retirements, it didn't include other retirements that may happen due to medical problems and/or early retirements. CAL has a very old pilot group with 50% of their pilot group to reach age 60 within something like the next ten years.
As for splitting the MECs, I don't think the XJT guys would benefit. Remember that all codesharing is done with Continental, not XJT. If the split were to happen, the XJT guys would have no say in any future codeshares and thus no props for jobs like they got with Commutair and may get with Skywest.
I have heard a lot of guys threatening job action if CAL keeps getting more codeshares while XJT continues to furlough. Frankly I don't see "Dubya" and his administration allowing you guys to strike, or perform any other job action, as he is very pro-management. Also it would hurt Continental, a homestate airline based at the airport named after his daddy. Not gonna happen.