MYFpilot
SDSU Super Fan
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2001
- Posts
- 273
A little more fuel for the pilot shortage flames!!
War and the Airlines - What happens next?
Dear AIR, Inc. members & ALPC readers:
By the time you read this, the war against Iraq should be over. If not, any extended scenario will undoubtedly amplify its affect on the airlines, our profession, and the nation’s economy.
But this is not the worst recession our country has ever seen. We’ve even had more pilots on furlough as a percentage of the workforce previously, but unfortunately, this situation is not over yet. More furloughs are sure to come. How many more, like everything else, will depend on the war, fuel prices, taxes, government loans, bankruptcies, liquidations, union and company negotiations, and bankruptcy judge and creditor committee decisions. The airlines are currently saying they will cutback up to 15 percent—or they may simply wait and see what the market requires.
Any way you cut it, though, there is a tremendous amount of stuff going on now in the life of every airline pilot and airline pilot “wannabe.” Everyone is asking, will my job, my airline, my industry survive this meltdown? When will it be over? What do I do now to improve my chances of survival in a worst-case scenario?
It is clearly time for a back-up plan—especially if your airline is one of those currently under pressure, near the brink, or if you are furloughed or might be soon. You need to develop a plan and start to take the steps necessary to make that plan workable. At a minimum the basics need to be covered: résumés need to be updated, logbooks brought up to date, and you need to get to know the job market again. And yes, there is a job market today, with approximately 150 of the 200 airlines we track at AIR, Inc. still recruiting pilots, and about 100 of them responsible for hiring up to 600 pilots each month.
As nauseating as these basic job-search steps might be to those who have been there at least once before, the plan is much the same as when you last participated—it’s just a lot harder with fewer jobs and more pilots. But if your aversion to the process shows up in an attitude that’s any less than enthusiastic in the interview, success is unlikely. So you must get over any bitterness or frustration you may be feeling.
Our industry is out of control right now and there is nothing pilots hate more than not being in control. After all, in our line of work if you’re not in control it quite easily could be fatal. Our passengers think it’s acceptable to risk being killed in an automobile on the way to the airport, but if we do it in a plane—which is 20 times less likely—then shame on the airlines and shame on us pilots. It is most definitely a control thing!
What we all need is for the war to be won decisively and finished quickly, the economy to begin a recovery that lasts, fuel prices to stabilize, and for government to figure out the airline industry does not have an eternal spring of money to cover whatever demands are placed on it through increased security requirements, taxes, and fees. Airline unions also need to understand and embrace a new business formula that must work over the long term with much lower revenues, which demands lower costs across the board.
And all of these things will happen—but not overnight. The recovery that we initially hoped would’ve taken just a year or so now looks like it’ll take at least another couple of years for most airlines, and even longer for those in the worst position going in to this tough period. One or two carriers may even fail, but with each failure the prospects for those that remain will improve. I sincerely hope it is not your airline or mine that falls by the wayside, but you can be sure that I will have a Plan B if the time comes.
Be ready and keep your airspeed up,
Kit Darby
President & Publisher
War and the Airlines - What happens next?
Dear AIR, Inc. members & ALPC readers:
By the time you read this, the war against Iraq should be over. If not, any extended scenario will undoubtedly amplify its affect on the airlines, our profession, and the nation’s economy.
But this is not the worst recession our country has ever seen. We’ve even had more pilots on furlough as a percentage of the workforce previously, but unfortunately, this situation is not over yet. More furloughs are sure to come. How many more, like everything else, will depend on the war, fuel prices, taxes, government loans, bankruptcies, liquidations, union and company negotiations, and bankruptcy judge and creditor committee decisions. The airlines are currently saying they will cutback up to 15 percent—or they may simply wait and see what the market requires.
Any way you cut it, though, there is a tremendous amount of stuff going on now in the life of every airline pilot and airline pilot “wannabe.” Everyone is asking, will my job, my airline, my industry survive this meltdown? When will it be over? What do I do now to improve my chances of survival in a worst-case scenario?
It is clearly time for a back-up plan—especially if your airline is one of those currently under pressure, near the brink, or if you are furloughed or might be soon. You need to develop a plan and start to take the steps necessary to make that plan workable. At a minimum the basics need to be covered: résumés need to be updated, logbooks brought up to date, and you need to get to know the job market again. And yes, there is a job market today, with approximately 150 of the 200 airlines we track at AIR, Inc. still recruiting pilots, and about 100 of them responsible for hiring up to 600 pilots each month.
As nauseating as these basic job-search steps might be to those who have been there at least once before, the plan is much the same as when you last participated—it’s just a lot harder with fewer jobs and more pilots. But if your aversion to the process shows up in an attitude that’s any less than enthusiastic in the interview, success is unlikely. So you must get over any bitterness or frustration you may be feeling.
Our industry is out of control right now and there is nothing pilots hate more than not being in control. After all, in our line of work if you’re not in control it quite easily could be fatal. Our passengers think it’s acceptable to risk being killed in an automobile on the way to the airport, but if we do it in a plane—which is 20 times less likely—then shame on the airlines and shame on us pilots. It is most definitely a control thing!
What we all need is for the war to be won decisively and finished quickly, the economy to begin a recovery that lasts, fuel prices to stabilize, and for government to figure out the airline industry does not have an eternal spring of money to cover whatever demands are placed on it through increased security requirements, taxes, and fees. Airline unions also need to understand and embrace a new business formula that must work over the long term with much lower revenues, which demands lower costs across the board.
And all of these things will happen—but not overnight. The recovery that we initially hoped would’ve taken just a year or so now looks like it’ll take at least another couple of years for most airlines, and even longer for those in the worst position going in to this tough period. One or two carriers may even fail, but with each failure the prospects for those that remain will improve. I sincerely hope it is not your airline or mine that falls by the wayside, but you can be sure that I will have a Plan B if the time comes.
Be ready and keep your airspeed up,
Kit Darby
President & Publisher
