Embraer and SWA

[YeOldeProp]

Woof!!!

Tell ya what Snoopy, if you've got that much of a grasp on the retail/enroute growth/feasibility arguments to come back with the above answer, I vote you for official Flightinfo Analyst for October. You tell us the Great Pumpkin is flying out of the pumpkin patch on Halloween night on Southwest (the old colors are about right), then I'll believe. Must of been those years on the Herkybird flying low and slow that gave you time to ponder the analysis stuff...good job.

 

[lowecur]

snoppy 58

You have got to learn to come out of your shell.

1. What may be one man's torture, is another man's nirvana.

2. Hey, this is my speculation not inside information from SWAPA.
I think Neeleman did say they were going to be paying less to
the 190 pilots. If you know the rate comparison between the
320 and 190, let's hear it. You can negotiate all you want with
me, but the final decision would be by vote of the membership.
Thank God SWAPA doesn't have an electorial college, or your
opinion might be the only one that counts.

3. We agree to disagree on adding that many cities. If WN buys
the EMB a/c, they will have to add lot's of new cities. Unless
of course you believe they will be used to replace the whole
fleet of 737's. If 50 doesn't sound right, how about 40?

4. What are you saying the 175 and 190 are two completely
different a/c? Explain your thinking?

5. I never said the 175 or 190 had better CASM's than all larger
jets. I would say the CASM for the 737NG is around 6.50, and
the 733 is closer to 8.5, thus the overall CASM of approx 7.5 for
WN. Lower CASM alone doesn't equal a profit.

6. You need to learn more about the EMB a/c. The 195 can hold
117 pax in an all coach layout of 31" pitch.

7. Again, you need to learn something about Embraer. The cost
advantage of the EMB a/c is engineering not payroll savings, or
the airlines inability to fill a large jet. This is very niave thinking,
even for a distinguished man such as youself.

8. I know the 737NG and the 733 can seat 137 pax. The problem
is the LF's will probably end up in the high sixties for the year.
That's probably around 90 pax average per flight. Now I'm
sure the route planners are very smart people, and they under-
stand that a good percentage of their flights are running thin.
How do you fix this problem? 100 seat a/c that can run a 7.5
CASM. It's much more profitable than a 137 seat a/c on thin
routes.

9. The nice thing about small markets is they receive no respect.
Yet, I think the legacy's are making a killing. Take a look at
the prospectus for ACA on the LCC deal. Look at some of the
comparisons as to what is being charged by the legacy's for
these small to mid sized markets. It's a goldmine waiting to be
tapped.

10. I never said WN was going to replace all 400 737's with 190's.
Check my explanation to swerpipe.

11. You didn't give me an arguement on the stock price. However,
you bring up the costs of adding a new a/c to the fleet. Yup,
their are costs, but Dave Neeleman thinks the economic's
favor the introduction of a 2nd airframe. You may think Jim
Parker, Gary Kelly, and Collette Barrett are a smarter mgt
team, but I think Neeleman knows more about this business
than you. In fact he has Parker and Kelly acknowledging that
they are looking "casually" at this a/c because the economics
make sense, where they didn't make sense with the RJ.

12. You want my source that margins will shrink noticeably? It's
all my speculation as an amateur airline analyst. Don't buy it
fine, that's your right also as an amateur airline analyst.

13. I'm talking about RASM, not total revenue. Long haul flights
decrease RASM. Do you understand what RASM is?

From one moonie to another, it's a good thing your a pilot. As an
amateur analyst, I got ya beat.

 

[T1bubba]

Lowecur,

I think you may find a more receptive audience on airliners.net. People there are always speculating on when we're going to start doing things like buying more types of aircraft, flying international, adding assigned seats and first class, etc.

If you haven't figured it out, our management luvs to drop little hints about what we "might" do to change our strategy. It keeps the competition guessing and keeps us in the news. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a little betting pool about how many headlines they can get.

T1

 

[lowecur]

T1

Moonies like Snoopy 58 are interesting to discus these things with. He is typical of the brainwashed mentality that if it ain't broke, why fix it. He doesn't give the management team at WN enough credit to look into the future and be flexible.

Is it a sure thing that WN is going to pick EMB? Of course not, but it's not sealed in cement either that it couldn't happen. The addition of Philadelphia to the stable this morning has someone throwing cold water in Snoppy's face to revive him. I'm gonna love hearing his rational for this decision.

I post on this board to try and bring some interesting discussion to the table. I try to be respectful and listen to everyone's opinion with an open mind. I've learned alot here, and I hope some readers have learned a little about EMB from me.

 

[T1bubba]

Re: T1

I've learned alot here, and I hope some readers have learned a little about EMB from me.

Just curious, what makes you qualified to teach anyone about the new EMB? Have you flown it? Do you work for them?

 

[CoopDog]

And just what exactly is a Moonie? All I can think of are those dudes who used to hand out propaganda in the terminal and ask you to buy their book.....wait, that might have been the Hari Krishna's.

Somebody call Robert Stack!

 

[lowecur]

Coopdog

Never heard of the Rev Moon? His church has been referred to as a cult of brainwashed followers. Moonies are fervant believers in anything Rev Moon has to say. They don't question, they just follow.

Of course this is a tongue in cheek expression that can be applied to anyone who gets insulted that someone would question their companies business model. They are fortunately a small minority with most companies, as most people in this world can still think for themselves.

 

[lowecur]

T1bubba

And what criteria do you use to pass judgement on who qualifies to teach someone about Embraer? Does a person have to work for the company or fly the a/c to know something about the company?

I invest in them, and I do quite a bit or D&D. When a person invests alot of money in something, he or she had better know what they are investing in. Do I learn something new about ERJ everyday? Absolutely, as I have any open mind. You should try and do the same.

 

[Bill Nelson]

The idea behind PHL you ask?

Phl is approx 110 miles from JFK. That means that it is 65 miles in either direction for all the folks that live inbetween the two.

Fly out of PHL and draw Jet Blue folks over to SWA. same ticket prices and same driving distance but SWA delivers many more destinations. At the same time put a major crunch on USAIR.

Sounds like good thinking to me!

 

[T1bubba]

Re: T1bubba

I invest in them...

Just trying to figure out the source of your extreme bias. I think I found it.

Not that the EMB isn't a great plane, but believe it or not it will be possible for some airlines to be successful without flying them.