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Do you think we have hit the bottom?

pilotswife

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Hi All,
Just looking to get some thoughts on this topic.
My husband had to give up his job as a CFI full time so he could help pay the bills. Just wondering if you all think we are nearing the bottom of this aviation "down turn" We all know this business is cyclical, I am just praying we are near the bottom of this cycle-- as many of you are too!
Some bad news for any of you with Continental, just got a memo from Sam R. to the flight attendant group (I am a co fa) he said in his memo that the summer block time has increased so the need for FA's has increased slightly, but the forecast for the fall is not looking good.
I just hope the "dawn" is near because my husband has worked really hard ....he gave up his career and lived apart from his wife and kids for over a year in order to pursue his flying dream.
pilotswife
 

FLpilot

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In my humble opinion, yes, we have hit bottom. As long as nothing else happens, ie. another terrorist attack, a new war in Iraq, etc. things will continue to get better. But don't expect aynthing overnight, it's going to be slow going for at least the rest of this year until the majors start recalling.
 

TurboS7

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In 1975 when I started flight instructing no one would even dare dream of an airline job. The desire and action was in the corporate sector, I believe that is where the growth is going to be now. Have we hit bottom???When you see the amount of aircraft that have been parked I would say no. Will it get better before it gets worse, yes. The airlines depend on the business traveler, frankly they are all going via private jet. My recomendation would be to forget the airlines at this point and have your husband look for a job in the corporate sector. He can get a nice job as a first officer with great bennies with a major corportation. Just something to think about.
 

skydiverdriver

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Well,not everyone can go by private jet. My flights have been very full lately, and we are purchasing aircraft just the same as before last year's attacks. I think things will get better soon.

However, even if they don't, your husband had to do what he did. If he didn't even try, he would always have regrets, and that's never good. But, if it does start getting better soon, he will be in a good position to get the first jobs available, after all the experienced guys get their's back. Then a bunch of new people will start training, and your husband will be on the crest of the wave. I think thing will get better, but I'm just not sure when it will occur. Good luck to you.
 

banned username 2

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skydiverdriver said:
Well,not everyone can go by private jet. My flights have been very full lately, and we are purchasing aircraft just the same as before last year's attacks. I think things will get better soon.
From your profile I gather you fly for a Regional... The Regionals seem to be doing quite well, they are actually picking up a lot of flying from where the Majors left off... Until the Majors "get better" I don't think you are going to see any major hiring booms... And I don't think the majors are going to mend very quickly... the only ones making any money are the ones with a low cost structure (SWA, etc...)

I think there will be a lot more guys making careers flying RJ's than there used to be.... Regionals (because of their cost structure) is where the airline growth will be at, and Corporate and the Fractionals is where the rest of the growth will be at... I think the "contracted" majors will stay contracted for quite a while... Even longer if another attack happens...

just my $0.02 worth...
 

publisher

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Normal???

It depends on what we are going to consider the new reality. If we are waiting for things with the big 4 to return to their previous glory, we may wait awhile.
The economy is growing again, I believe even if the stock market remains in the dulldroms. We need some good news to get it really going again, perceived good news.
I have traveled on Southwest a good bit and the flights were mostly full. Same with Air Tran.. The delay with the bigger carriers will be delayed even more by the success of these carriers and the bigger regionals.
 

bobbysamd

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RJ Flying Careers

I agree with Falcon Capt about people making a career out of flying RJs. Hiring at the majors will be slower, so people will stick with their commuters longer. Their scale(s) will improve as they stay longer, so pay will improve until they cap out. Therefore, (1) regional flying will be more attractive and (2) they'll have no choice but stay and be "lifers" unless other opportunities present themselves. Also, perhaps more slightly older, career-changer pilots will get their chances at regionals and (a) would be happy to stay, just like I would have, and/or (b) may not get a chance at the majors as they grow older because of stagnant hiring. Moreover, more majors may outsource their flying to RJs, which would increase the need for crews to fly them. No, I don't intend to start up a scope debate. Just an observation and hypothesis.

Now, if some start-ups come on the scene, such as an Air Tran, that might be another kettle of fish altogether.

Just my .02, also.
 
Last edited:

LR25

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Ask the guys at Piedmont if we have hit rock bottom yet, the big plunge is just now starting at PDT.

Forced domicile moves, furloughs, losing aircraft, and routes.

We are still holding on with both hands and feet here.

Good luck.
 
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