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Dl Cash Burn

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lowecur

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 14, 2003
Posts
2,317
Interesting little piece posted over on the yahoo board. Looks like Mr. Greenjeans will be forced to put a rush on his analysis.

A bankruptcy filing by Delta Air Lines is now a "credible threat," Citigroup Smith Barney analyst Daniel McKenzie stated in a report released yesterday. Assuming $40-per-barrel oil and based on his cash burn analysis, the airline will end 2004 with just $880 million in cash, "an inadequate level for a carrier the size of Delta," according to McKenzie.
 
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While I agree that DL's current state isn't good, I think this analysis is on the extreme side. I expect fuel will likely drop back into the 30's...which is still too high, but better than being in the 40's.

Of course, DL would likely file for BK long before getting down to $880 million. I would think once DL gets down to about 1-1.5 Billion, they would have to file.

Hopefully BK can be avoided, but knowing the stubborness of both management and DALPA, I wouldn't hold my breath.
 
I have never heard of that guy(Danny McKensie). Here is another analyst's view---and I'll have more after that:

From The Street...

"And as bad as things seem now, they've been worse. With airlines looking to wheedle concessions from labor unions and coordinate an industrywide fare hike to offset the price of fuel, some of the fears could be overstated to build a more convincing case for both to occur. Business isn't great, but early signals on summer aren't bleak, either.

"Airlines continue to be bullish on bookings going into the summer and traffic results in April bear out the positive outlook," said Jim Higgins, analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, in a research note. "Revenue should surprise on the upside ... Bearing in mind that we've been saying the following for some time, the current weakness in airline stocks really does appear overdone, even allowing for high fuel prices."

Then there is this guy:

The stock of Delta Air Lines (NYSEAL -
News) rose almost 16 percent on Thursday after an upgrade by Lehman
Brothers, even though the Wall Street firm cited major risks if the No. 3
U.S. carrier fails to reach a cost-saving deal with its pilots.

Shares of the Atlanta-based airline climbed more than 16 percent
earlier to a two-week high of $6.02, before closing up 82 cents, or 15.8
percent, at $5.99 on the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) .

Lehman analyst Gary Chase upgraded Delta to "overweight" from
"equal weight."

"We believe Delta has a lot of potential upside, but the company must
resolve its pilot cost issues before it can address many of those
opportunities," he wrote in a research note.

Still, "if the company fails to negotiate concessions from its pilots,
we believe the company will head quickly to the courthouse," Chase wrote.

And what about lower gas bills? Here you go today:

Reuters
UPDATE - Jet fuel falls 7 cents in L.A. market - traders
Tuesday May 25, 1:56 pm ET


(Updates with July price and trader comment)
HOUSTON, May 25 (Reuters) - Jet fuel prices in the Los Angeles spot market fell 7 cents early on Tuesday because of imports expected to arrive in June at West Coast ports, said traders in the West Coast refined products markets (0#P-WC).


Jet fuel is priced at a differential to the heating oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Jet fuel traded Tuesday at 22 cents over the NYMEX, down 5 cents from Monday. The NYMEX heating oil contract was down 2 cents at about $1.02 per gallon, setting the outright price for June jet fuel at $1.24 per gallon.

Traders said about 2.5 million barrels of jet fuel were expected to arrive in Los Angeles during June.

"July jet is lower than June," said a trader. "So anyone with a excess June barrels will want to sell in June and not hold until July."

July jet fuel was priced at 18 cents above the NYMEX heating oil contract, which would set the outright price for July jet fuel at $1.20 a gallon.



Had enough? You need to pick which analyst you want to believe. I have never heard of this new guy. He assumes a lot--like gas remaining at the same price, pilots not giving in, and NO PASSENGERS flying over the busy Summer season. That will stop the fuel bleeding atleast for the Summer. This will be the busiest Summer since pre-9-11--and that means a lot. Plus, Dalpa seems to be ready---along with the company finally---to negotiate. We shall see.........Even Grinstein said in the SLC meeting that he wanted to conclude this fast---and I think Dalpa would like to also. They will have to negotiate though---and that means everyone might not get exactly what they want.....But there will be pay cuts--no doubt. Also, Dalpa spokesman Chris Renkel stated that he was "100% positive" that they would get a deal done prior to any Chap 11 filing. That takes ballz!


Bye Bye--General Lee
:rolleyes:
 
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And who sold off the fuel hedges???? What an idiot! Who assumed the cost of fuel would EVER go down - it is a limited resource with Venezuela at 30% of capacity and China demanding nearly all of Russia's fuel to support its growing economy. A retarded monkey could have figured that out - regardless of the Iraq situation (oil was never going to be shipped immediately to the US).

Looks like brinksmanship to me. It will go down to the wire to pressure the pilots even more - that is to be expected.... But the pilots are already prepared to negotiate (and have been for quite some time) - everyone knows that except for the newspapers...

Bankruptcy won't be good for anyone in the Delta family - including the regional pilots. All contracts in bankruptcy will be evaluated and measured against peer contracts - you can bet on that....
 
General Lee said:
Had enough?

Bye Bye--General Lee
:rolleyes:
Yes, I give up!!!! :D ;) :D
 
Lowecur,

Hey, I saw that same small article and I did post it in the "Delta in a holding pattern" thread. I didn't overlook it. There seems to be a lot of speculation---and some analysts totally contradict the others. I have faith in Dalpa---and I think they will come to an amicable compromise. Have faith----and thanks again for flying Song.....

Bye Bye--General Lee;)
 
Seems like lowecur finds real pleasure in posting negative articles by "analysts" lately. That is all I seem to read from him. I can't figure out the grudge he apparently holds against everybody.
 
Stock Market Ratings by StockPickReport.com for Level 3 Communications, Delta Air Lines, Coca-Cola Company, Wells Fargo, Boeing
Tuesday May 25, 7:00 pm ET


SHREVEPORT, La.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 25, 2004--StockPickReport.Com (IARD#119079) http://www.stockpickreport.com/bw.php makes these short-term stock recommendations:
Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ:LVLT - News) - SELL
http://www.stockpickreport.com/ratingbw.php?sym=LVLT

Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL - News) - STRONG BUY

http://www.stockpickreport.com/ratingbw.php?sym=DAL



They seem to think we will survive........me thinks a deal is in the works.....


Bye Bye--General Lee
;) :rolleyes:
 

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