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DISCUSS - Cactus/UAL Merger?

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satpak77

satpak77

Marriott Platinum Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2003
Posts
3,015
Well I suppose I mean the new US Airways. My intention however is to discuss the likelihood of a UAL /America West (now US Airways - you get the point) merger. In support of this discussion, I provide the following
Reasons I think it may happen:

1. DAL/NWA merger
2. Won't be AMR, they are APA and it is too much hassle.
3. Both ALPA
4. UAL gives much needed East/Orient coverage
5. US Air gives Europe coverage
6. UAL gives California, Northwest (Seattle, etc) coverage
7. Similar fleets, mostly Boeing and Airbus. Not huge learning curve for employees.
8. Etc


DISCUSS
 
Like nails on a chalkboard....

What about CAL/UAL?

Not sure the common union has too much influence...

Rumors of AMR Ch 11 might take them out of the merger game... and that might push CAL/UAL.

Then again.. if/when NWA/DAL happens the responsive merger might be a total surprise...


ahhh the dynamics of the free market...


Don't forget everyone... Everyone is eligible for first year pay!!
 
UAL/CAL is about 10 times more likely than Cactus/UAL.
 
Hi!

I've read a ton of times on these boards that the UAL/CAL merger announcement will follow the DAL/NWA.

Then, there's the SWA CEO saying SWA WILL merge with SOMEONE, if ANY mergers occur.

cliff
YIOP
 
Uniform Shop said:
I think I would hold the record for having 7 uniforms in 12 years. :nuts: (If we kept the UAL name that is)
Click to expand...

I am not far behind!! Especially if Part 135 operators are included...
 
Heard the US/UAL rumors 6 months ago from some US employees. Both Star Alliance airlines, good int'l coverage, interesting bases (PHL/CLT/IAD and PHX/LAS/DEN). Lots of different a/c though, among them 737/747/757/767/777/A319/A320/A321/A330/A350 & tons of regionals. If US can get it's house in order, I like this one.
 
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What about a Continental/Alaska Merger? This would fit nicely as CO really doesn't have a strong West Coast OP and would Gain 3 Hubs to expained West Bound? fleets are fairly the same dump the MD-80s make SEA or LAX a Hub to the Far East? Both the Pilot groups are ALPA making seniority intergration So much easier (Yeah right) keep Alaska's Frequent Flyer program and allow for CO pilots to see that there really is life after living in a Crashpad in beautiful EWR!
 
I don't know if this is even possible, but I've heard a rumor CAL and American might team up to split United and divvy out the assets. No official sources, just your standard rumor pulled from somone's A$$.

I don't know if thats even legal or possible since UA isn't in bancruptcy. For UA sake, I hope that isn't the case.

Any thoughts?
 
Engine types on a fleet wouldn't have any implications in merger prospects.

Granted, it would save money, but in the big picture it is none but a pixel.
 
i dont think UAL would gain much from a US merger, US has no real international routes, secondary hubs, old airplanes, and employees that are not happy (at least the pilots). CAL would be a better fit for UAL, Strong international to Europe out of the largest market in the US (New York), Strong South America Routes where UAL lacks, and New Fuel efficeint fleet with a CEO that has a good track record for bringing employees together to make a winning team. CAL and Alaska looks good on paper, but CAL would again not gain much, they are number 4 now, they would still be number 4 after an Alaska merger. CAL lacks the Asia markets out of the United States, which is a big part of UALs route structure. The only merger after DAL/NWA that makes sense is CAL/UAL. I think US will be the only one without a dance partner unless it is a part of some smaller combination of whoevers left.
 
fyeo777 said:
i dont think UAL would gain much from a US merger, US has no real international routes, secondary hubs, old airplanes, and employees that are not happy (at least the pilots).
Click to expand...

http://www.atwonline.com/channels/dataAirlineEconomics/f&f_page4_0308.pdf

I would tend to agree. Looking at the latest released numbers, United is nearly 50% larger than US on ASK's to Europe and is 50% bigger on RPK's which means that they already carry more pax to Europe with better LF's. Surprisingly, the two are the same size in the Latin arena and US has no Pacific traffic to date. United and CAL do seem to be the better fit both domestically and internationally. CAL is bigger than UAL to Europe, but not by as much as you would think intuitively and UAL actually enjoys a slightly higher LF. CAL is almost 2.5 times bigger on the Latin routes while UA is about 7 times bigger in the Pacific. If all of this stuff is really going down, it just seems like CAL/UA is the superior deal on all faces.

I just don't see UA being interested in US unless they see some sort of value in a relatively cheaper deal v. CAL and they see the potential for substantial internal international growth out of US's presently underdeveloped hubs, and in their aircraft orders. I would imagine the direction US takes would be largely based on the alliance decisions of the combined CAL/UA and how quickly they can get their employee issues together. Alliances do not 'grow' traffic, they shift traffic from one carriers system to another. That wasn't such a big deal ti UA when US was primarily an East coast carrier but, I'm sure it's not lost on either carrier the effect of the alliance having hubs in PHX, DEN, LAS, SFO, and LAX. I don't think UA could kick US out of Star, but with CAL in the fold and a potential Jetblue codeshare down the line b/c of Lufthansa, UA could definitely afford not to put their code on a lot fewer (if any) US flights. The employee issues will likely decide whether Parker can get enough trust and money from banks to be in a bigger deal or whether he has to settle for a smaller deal.

On another note, why wouldn't AMR sniff around US? They've done it before and since it appears that they will not be able to get their first (NW) or second (UA) choice for merger partners, they would be left to play the 'market share' game. US doesn't have much overlap with them and probably could be had cheaper than what it would take to beat out DL for NW.
 
I'll have you beat if we keep the CAL name! 7 in 10 years!........on another note I think I sat in front of you in new hire class at Alegiant!
Click to expand...

I think you did. How's it going? When did you go back to UAL?
 
PositiveRate said:
I always thought the cactus/ATA thing would have been good. that or cactus/spirit/frontier or something similar might have worked.
Click to expand...

I liked the idea as well. Besides, the AAA pilots would have gotten the DOH that they have been shooting (pun intended!) for:bawling: .
 
Nobody wanted to merge with USAir before the mess of the past year....now it'd be virtual corporate suicide to attempt it. Sure UAL mgmnt. could try to cram it down their throats. And wind up with another summer of 2000.
 
Word is that after DELTA/Northwest becomes a 100% sure thing, UAL/CAL will be next within a few days.
 

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