Delta Will Report Huge 3Q Loss Wednesday

[General Lee]

Medflyer,


Before you get into theory about DIP financing, let's see if we do go into Chap 11. I am curious as to why we haven't done it yet. I would think a judge would give DL time to find all of that out--and at the same time stop some of the bleeding. I would think that you wouldn't stay out of Chap 11 to line up financing---that doesn't make any sense. A judge could stop most of the bleeding immediately. You and I really don't know what is going on over there at VA avenue....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[wmuflyguy]

"Last month we outlined the key elements of Delta's transformation plan which targets $1 billion in annual pilot cost savings, as well as participation from Delta's other stakeholders," said Gerald Grinstein,

Ok i'm jsut a CFI, but i can do Math... 1 Billion dollars a year from the pilots equals a saving of 250 million a quarter.

If Delta lost 591 million in one quarter. 591-250= 341million dollars

Even with 1 billion in concessions from pilots they would have losed 300 million dollars...they better try some other remedy. Where is it all going?

 

[General Lee]

WMU,


That also doesn't count the $850-900 million a year they will take from the non union people (stews, mechanics, ground people).


But here is something interesting. Why o Why aren't they taking the 10% cuts from the non-union people until Jan of 05? If they really needed the cash NOW---they should start those cuts NOW---since the others have no contract etc. As I have said before, I still think we have some sort of deal already done with management---and are awaiting the creditors at this point. Why, again, haven't they started with the other cuts? It could help stop some of the bleeding, right??



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[MedFlyer]

WMU,

Why, again, haven't they started with the other cuts? It could help stop some of the bleeding, right??

Bye Bye--General Lee

To make sure EVERYONE participates in the cuts. If DL takes the cuts from the other employee groups right now, DALPA would likely reduce the amount its willing to give or even worse walk away from the table altogether. DL management MUST bleed the company dry in order to force DALPA's hand....its the only way.

 

[DaveGriffin]

Dalpa did you a FAVOR by passing this TA---the senior guys will HAVE TO GO by Feb 1st or risk losing half of their pension (lump sum). Had Dalpa not passed that TA, more of the pilots would stay--because they wouldn't risk quitting and then also losing their lump sum if it wasn't guaranteed. Everything else that will happen was gonna happen---but now there is also a steady stream of retirements---which will help you eventually.

GL;

What a load of crap, painting the TA as a favor to the juniors. But that is what the top-third “greedy bast*rds” and the middle-third “greedy bast*rd wannabes” always do when they have to justify scr*wing the bottom-third “sacrificial bast*rds”.

All your self-righteous talk about how the MEC will be looking out for the juniors in the negotiations is nothing but misdirection and hot air.

 

[General Lee]

Dave,


Here we go again. Forst of all, a lot of those senior ba$tards will HAVE TO LEAVE 5 years or so before they turn 60----which is probably the last thing they wanted to do since they finally have hit their plateau----INTL 767 Capt going to Europe or Hawaii 765 Capt---something they have worked hard to achieve. Now, a lot of them HAVE TO GO OR RISK losing a lot of money they actually EARNED. Sure, a lot of them have been doing well these last three years---with the C2K contract in effect---and now they will have their top 3 years and they will leave.


Guess what Dave? I am not one of those senior guys---I have been lucky that I haven't been furloughed and have been on the same equipment for awhile---even at bottom reserve for a year (last year). But, I recognize that this industry isn't very stable and a lot of people have been and will be affected. You will never be satisfied with what happens here, and it is obvious that I can't change your mind on anything. Have a great rest of the day.....




Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[sandman2122]

fuel hedging

SWAdude,

Realize that the tables can turn rapily for SW if oil prices don't drop significantly before your fuel hedging runs out........somethings going to give.........eventually..........

 

[wmuflyguy]

That also doesn't count the $850-900 million a year they will take from the non union people (stews, mechanics, ground people).

Ok, that makes more sense. I was going to guess they would cut other employees pay, but have only been reading about the pilots taking a pay cut. Hopefuly it all works out someway.

 

[Birdstrike]

Let It Be

...With the exception (for now) of CA and NWA, it looks like the entire legacy side of the business will be bankrupt. Now the next question is who is going to be around in five years...

Here's my question...isn't it true that for a range of reasons we're in an overcapacity situation; too many carriers chasing too few customers? If more people aren't going to start flying again, doesn't somebody have to eventually go away so that the survivors have a chance of regaining some semblance of financial health?

No one wants to see a working man suffer after losing their job or pension, but in business we know that there are winners and losers and going out of business is a part of losing. An important part. If the failing business is allowed to hang around indefinitely while being artifically propped up even as it continues to hemorrage, it seems like everyone is worse off as a result.

I know I'm being simplistic here, but why wouldn't it make good sense to let the market forces do their thing and pick off the lame, the weak, and the crippled without these repeated Chapter 11s that haven't stopped the bleeding?

Why struggle unsuccessfully attempting to keep seven major airlines afloat when, if two or three were allowed to go bankrupt and shut down it might mean regaining financial health for the legacy survivors?

I understand the tragedy for the workers of the failing companies. I've been a part of one. But since almost all of the legacy carriers are in serious trouble, why can't the least profitable/competitive among them be allowed to die a natural death and in so doing save the jobs and futures of the survivors which have been placed at risk?

 

[DaveGriffin]

Dave,
Guess what Dave? I am not one of those senior guys---

No $h*t GL. You are in the middle-third of the seniority list and a "greedy bast*rd wannabe".

It is in your best interest to perpetuate a system that scr*ws the bottom-third "sacrificial bast*rds". There ain't much to go around these days, and the seniors want to make sure that whatever there is, goes to them.

 

[General Lee]

Dave,


You like to make this argument go round and round. Everyone left on the property is a greedy ba$tard to you.......



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[DaveGriffin]

Dave,


You like to make this argument go round and round. Everyone left on the property is a greedy ba$tard to you.......



Bye Bye--General Lee

But not as bad as your repetitive, self-interest motivated argument to the juniors:

"Take your medicine and quit complaining, it's good for you."

 

[Vortilon]

Birdstrike,

I don't think that the industry is that simple. If USAirways, United, & DAL ceased to exist it wouldn't just solve the "overcapacity" problem. The latest round of losses (from all carriers) being blamed on fuel is ludicrous. Every other industry apparently charges its customers what the product costs...but thats another thread.

If 3 large carriers went away there would be, in essence, a vacuum. Not many carriers are in a financial position to take up all the slack either. It wouldn't suprise me if most every major and a few LCCs are in Chapter 11 next year anyway (AA,UAL,US,DAL,CAL,NW,ATA,FLYi). SWA & JetBlue won't be as strong next year either if this years trend continues. You'd see a host of small startups, most of which would fail in a short time and/or merge into a larger airline. If JetBlue tripled in size or Southwest doubled in size, it would cause tremendous problems to be managed. Add on the associated customer service debacles and labor problems and you've got an even worse problem for the average flyer.

I've only been in aviation 14 years...so my view is narrow. But basically the "partial regulation" of deregulation hasn't worked. I think we either need to be regulated or COMPLETLELY deregulated. Let the big mergers happen, let the airlines coordinate fares as they wish. I think the public (and aviation employees) would be better served in the end by a strong air transport system rather than one thats always in the news for financial problems.

What a stupid industy we are in. At least the view (and occasionally the food) is good though!