Delta TA impact on Delta Connection...

[suupah]

Why would Skywest gets it? why wouldn't it go to Pinnacle or Go Jets, since they will be cheaper than SW.

because it is a way to reduce 50 seat feed to the numbers in their ta. by getting the 900's in trade for the current pinnacle 50 seaters through bombardier they reduce pinnacles 50 seaters. then, delta, who is leasing the planes takes those 900's to skywest or asa and trades them 2 50 seaters for one 76 seater with a long term contract as the incentive for skywest. this now takes even more 50 seaters out of the system.

Getting rid of the 50 seaters is the name of the game and if Delta gets that done before their competitors it puts them at an advantage.

 

[Jar Jar]

Wow 35% of new hires will come from DCI ALPA carriers, so it would seem that if you are not ALPA you'll be in the 65% range (much better odds)! So how does this benefit an DCI ALPA group??? Thanks ALPA for helping us out, why do I pay dues again?

I bet if you run the numbers about 35% of the people who apply at DAL would be DCI ALPA pilots anyway.

 

[makersmarc]

Gone With the Wind

Getting rid of the 50 seaters is the name of the game and if Delta gets that done before their competitors it puts them at an advantage.

Not really. RJs are not a toxic asset per se; if DL had none they would be scrambling to acquire some to get a competitive advantage for untapped markets. Can Harrisburg, PA be served as well (that is, revenue reaped from) with two flights a day, one to DTW and one to ATL? Customers there would go to CLE, EWR, CLT, DCA, BWI, ORD and IAD instead.

I think that it would be interesting to see what Unicon does.

 

[jdubya]

Obviously the numbers aren't working with the 50 seat rj's, and keep in mind revenue is not profit necessarily, so that would lead to an advantage in not having them.
I wish it was for you guys, but yes it will be interesting to see what happens and how it plays out.

 

[i fly boxes]

My prediction is that 70 200's will come from pinnacle. Way back in 2007 in our agreement with nwa there is a prevision that says that 70 aircraft may be removed if there is a change of control of the company. So If delta purchases us to turn us into the next comair, they can remove 70 200's over a 3 year period. What a coincidence, delta wants the 200's down to 125 within 3 years! There is also a stipulation in that original asa that says they can extend our contract for 5 years with no rate resets, what a coincidence, they just did that! It also says they can exchange 200's for 900s on a one for one basis, so since pinnacle has 140 200's and 70 of them will probably be parked if delta purchases us, that leaves 70 left. How many more 900's does delta want? 70! SO, pinnacle may be an airline of aprox. 100-125 900's in 3 years.

 

[CRJ puppy]

My prediction is that 70 200's will come from pinnacle. Way back in 2007 in our agreement with nwa there is a prevision that says that 70 aircraft may be removed if there is a change of control of the company. So If delta purchases us to turn us into the next comair, they can remove 70 200's over a 3 year period. What a coincidence, delta wants the 200's down to 125 within 3 years! There is also a stipulation in that original asa that says they can extend our contract for 5 years with no rate resets, what a coincidence, they just did that! It also says they can exchange 200's for 900s on a one for one basis, so since pinnacle has 140 200's and 70 of them will probably be parked if delta purchases us, that leaves 70 left. How many more 900's does delta want? 70! SO, pinnacle may be an airline of aprox. 100-125 900's in 3 years.

Delta won't ever buy another regional. They have clearly stated this numerous times. It's not necessary to own that which you can easily contractually control without having the debt on your own books.

Lease agreements can be renegotiated or terminated as part of the chap 11 process. No "trade" necessary. The trades will be for leases that can not be broken so easily.

It's just simple business. You, your family, your QOL are not factors.

What's more likely is 125 of Pinnacle's 50 seaters leases will be renegotiated to half their current rates, the remainder returned to the lessors. Your pwa will be reworked and thru the chap 11 process, Pinnacle will become the lowest cost DCI carrier and the 50 seaters will continue to operate for some time.

Then the 16 900's that are being returned along with the 70 additional 900's that will be allowed over the next 3 yrs (assuming the Delta pilot's TA passes) will be used in 2 for 1 trades will other DCI carriers to divest the remainder of 50 seaters from the DCI fleet.

 

[bri5150]

I am not sure why people keep saying that Delta will purchase Pinnacle. If Delta wanted regionals they wouldn't have sold Mesaba and Compass, combined us and Comair and screwed us over that way. If they don't own the regional, they can just tell them what to do without worrying about how to pay for it. Especially when the carrier only flys for them. They have no choice.

 

[CRJ puppy]

i am not sure why people keep saying that delta will purchase pinnacle. If delta wanted regionals they wouldn't have sold mesaba and compass, combined us and comair and screwed us over that way. If they don't own the regional, they can just tell them what to do without worrying about how to pay for it. Especially when the carrier only flys for them. They have no choice.

exactly

 

[xjhawk]

I am not convinced Delta will buy Pinnacle but......

go back to 2005 I think the year was. Mesaba was just forced into bankruptcy by NWA when its parent company had millions in the bank. NWA just stopped their required payments to Mesaba. Just before that, Pinnacle was IPO'd for a huge profit and given a huge crj200 contract/delivery. For me, I saw the writing on the wall and said NWA would buy Mesaba. EVERYONE, Mesaba/Pinnacle NWA (people) etc said my prediction was crazy. After all NWA just unloaded Pinnacle and if they wanted to own a regional, they would have kept Pinnacle.

I am just saying. There are a lot of coincidental things occurring at just the right time. The Delta TA being negotiated while Delta forced Pinnacle to buy Mesaba knowing full well that Pinnacle was understaffed and unable to fulfill its contractual flying. Not to mention it was so mismanaged I am sure they knew it would be ran into bankruptcy. Especially since they refused to make the adjustment to the ATL ASA (crj 900) to make Pinnacle profitable. There is also talk that the Q flying for United could have been made profitable as Pinnacle's bid for that flying was lower than Republic. So why did Pinnacle not allow it to stay? I would think Delta had their dirty little fingers in that mess as well.

I am just saying....too many coincidences.

 

[xjhawk]

Yes Its a huge conspiracy theory. This is pretty much a theory based on the same premise of Roswell, bigfoot, and the Kennedy assassination.

 

[Inconceivable]

xjhawk,

The big difference is between that shamruptcy and this one is in the interim a Comair flight took a long takeoff roll on a short runway leaving DL exposed three ways - codeshare, owner of the regional partner, owner of the flight school one of the pilots trained at prior to hire. Bri5150 has it nailed; this way they have full control and no risk - or responsibility.

 

[Texx]

Delta won't ever buy another regional. They have clearly stated this numerous times. It's not necessary to own that which you can easily contractually control without having the debt on your own books.

Lease agreements can be renegotiated or terminated as part of the chap 11 process. No "trade" necessary. The trades will be for leases that can not be broken so easily.

It's just simple business. You, your family, your QOL are not factors.

What's more likely is 125 of Pinnacle's 50 seaters leases will be renegotiated to half their current rates, the remainder returned to the lessors. Your pwa will be reworked and thru the chap 11 process, Pinnacle will become the lowest cost DCI carrier and the 50 seaters will continue to operate for some time.

Then the 16 900's that are being returned along with the 70 additional 900's that will be allowed over the next 3 yrs (assuming the Delta pilot's TA passes) will be used in 2 for 1 trades will other DCI carriers to divest the remainder of 50 seaters from the DCI fleet.

That is as of today. Never say never. In 5 years things will be very, very different.

 

[CRJ puppy]

That is as of today. Never say never. In 5 years things will be very, very different.

"Welcome to Fantasy Island!"

 

[sinkrate]

What makes sense business wise does not neccessarily make sense financially.

If you read the BK filings closely if delta gets what they want out of PCL they will convert the DIP financing to longer term exit financing. In other words - rather than own PCL they saddle them with a big loan. There are numeous advantages to that plan versus out right ownership. That is why Delta provided financing to PCL to buy Mesaba rather than doing the transaction with stock. If Delta does not supply any exit financing the possibility of PCL coming out of BK is slim. The possibility of the rest of the creditiors accepting any exit plan that leaves PCL too small to be profitable is slim. My guess is PCL comes out of this roughly the same size revenue wise (not hulls) as its current delta operation or it shuts down.

Piecing together all the information from this and other boards Delta has an agreement in place with Bombardier/EDC to take PCL 50 seaters in a trade for new 900's. First DALPA has to ratify their TA for that to happen.

The new 900's don't have to go to PCL - they can go to any carrier.

This also presents DAL with an opportunity to do something with CMR. No one will buy them. Out of this DAL can force a shotgun marriage if they choose to. 'Here is CMR and a loan to go with it if you want any exit finanancing'. DAL finally gets something for CMR and the rest of the creditors will acept it because it increases the total enterprise value and stock value. It is possible CMR's 700's go to GO JETS and their 900's go to PCL.

All speculation but if you follow the money it is where 'the deal is'. Of course the PCL pilots could always screw the deal up for everyone.

 

[Flyer1015]

Of course the PCL pilots could always screw the deal up for everyone.

What do you mean? How?