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Delta plans no follow-on aircraft order anytime soon

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Maybe Delta is buying a bunch of 717's.

Gup


Or maybe Delta is waiting for something like this:

source

Benelux special: NG Aircraft plans Fokker 100 revival


By Max Kingsley-Jones


One of the longest-running sagas in recent civil aerospace history may conclude this summer if the planned relaunch of the Fokker 70/100 regional jet gets the nod.
Ever since production of the Dutch twinjet ended in 1997, there have been on/off plans to relaunch the popular 80- to 110-seat family, masterminded by Jaap Rosen Jacobson, who was owner of Antwerp-based VLM Airlines. For many years the revival effort was made under the umbrella of the curiously named "Rekkof Restart" (the first word being Fokker spelt backwards). The latest revival is being attempted by Rekkof's successor, NG Aircraft, which is still headed by Jacobson. He is being assisted by a small team that includes former Fokker marketing chief and Fokker Aircraft USA chief executive Maarten Van Eeghen.
Powered by the Rolls-Royce Tay 620/650, the 107-seat Fokker 100 was a major derivative of the 1960s F28, which entered service with Swissair in March 1988. It was joined in 1995 by the smaller, 79-seat Fokker 70, but the collapse of Fokker a year later led to the twinjet's premature demise after 324 had been delivered. "I could have signed a very large order at that time with Mesa for the Fokker 70, but Fokker folded," says Van Eeghen.

getAsset.aspx
© Fokker

NG Aircraft's focus will be the larger Fokker 100

After various abortive attempts over the next decade to relaunch the programme, when Jacobson managed to source all the production tooling from the manufacturer and suppliers and the intellectual property from the receiver, NG Aircraft believes it now has a strong business case to revive the aircraft.
"The whole project started again because one of our major operators told us it could see little or no improvement over the Fokker 100 with what's on offer today - that's because the aircraft is so light," says Van Eeghen.
NG aims to bring the twinjet back within five years, with build and performance updates, additional fuel capacity and - significantly - power from a new, but yet-to-be revealed engine. This will ensure full competitiveness with new-generation rivals such as the Embraer E-Jet family as well as the Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered Bombardier CSeries and Mitsubishi MRJ regional jet, believes NG Aircraft. The focus of the exercise will be the larger Fokker 100, but the 70 will also be offered.
For the dream to become a reality, NG Aircraft is awaiting approval in June from the European Union for a €20 million ($27 million) loan agreed with the Dutch economics ministry to be provided on the basis of supporting innovation in civil aircraft development.
Brussels approval - which Van Eeghen says should be a formality - will clear the way for the launch of the programme this summer, when the engine will also be revealed. The funding required to get the programme off the ground and through the demonstrator phase is €90 million, most of which has been committed, Van Eeghen says. "The programme will require around €500 million," he adds. "Once we get the green light for the loan we can start modifying the original prototype Fokker 100 and that should fly around 18 months later."
NG has linked with Stork's two Fokker divisions to support the revival, says Van Eeghen. "Lead engineer for phase one is Fokker Services in Nieuw Vennep. The proof-of-concept development aircraft will be modified by Fokker Aircraft Services at its Woensdrecht plant."
The demonstrator, expected to be ready by early 2012, will undertake "a couple of months" of testing, ahead of the construction of the first aircraft, which should arrive in 2015 and enter service by the end of that year.
Van Eeghen says work is under way to complete a digital mock-up of the entire aircraft. This will be key to NG's plan to modernise the production process, with a 20% reduction in build-costs targeted. Meanwhile the Dutch national aerospace laboratory NLR is designing a winglet for the enhanced aircraft.
Once launched, NG will finalise the production plan, which should include supplier partners responsible for major build packages. "We are already in negotiations with one or two potential partners. We are going to be far leaner than the old Fokker - we are a supply chain management company," says Van Eeghen.
NG Aircraft's market analysis predicts the revived twinjets could capture "a steady 12%" of the long-term market, "around 50 aircraft a year, which is probably too conservative," Van Eeghen says. "This aircraft could easily go for another 20 years as we don't see anything new being planned that will offer better performance - if necessary we could even make another jump like Boeing with the 737."
 
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Delta spending delays dash Bombardier hopes
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Sep. 13, 2011 7:40PM EDT
Last updated Tuesday, Sep. 13, 2011 7:52PM EDT

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL-N7.990.618.27%) is delaying an order for new narrow-bodied aircraft for several years, dashing hopes that Bombardier Inc. (BBD.B-T4.260.030.71%) is about to land the biggest order yet for its new C Series airplane.

The Atlanta-based airline announced three weeks ago that it will buy 100 Boeing Co. 737 planes and was believed to be set to follow that up with the purchase of 100 smaller narrow-bodied planes later this year or next year.

We are done talking about aircraft for the near to medium term,” Ed Bastian, Delta’s president, said on Tuesday. “There’s no second step of aircraft [purchases], whether it be with Bombardier or Embraer or Boeing or Airbus.”

Montreal-based Bombardier and Embraer SA of Brazil were believed to be the two contenders for an order for planes that would seat between 100 and 150 passengers in a deal that would almost double the number of orders for the C Series.

Airlines have ordered 133 C Series planes, which represent Bombardier’s $3.4-billion bet that it can compete in the biggest segment of the commercial airplane market and challenge the duopoly Boeing and Airbus SAS have enjoyed for decades.

The delay of several years in replacing some DC-9 airplanes that have been in service for 33 years is another sign of growing concern among U.S. companies about the health of the U.S. and global economies.

“This was about Delta, not about the airplanes,” said industry analyst Scott Hamilton, a principal at consulting firm Leeham Co. LLC. Bombardier went more than a year without landing orders for the C Series before several airlines signed on around the Paris Air Show in June.

“The declining U.S. economy in particular, the softening global economy and the narrowing of profits in 2011 versus 2010 caused Delta to pull back from the 100-150 seat airplane order for now,” Mr. Hamiton said. Delta did not want to place an order now that would have included down payments, progress payments as the planes were being built and additional debt on its balance sheet, he said.

The order for Boeing planes is worth about $8.5-billion (U.S.), while an order for 100 C Series planes would have been worth about $6-billion at list prices.

Delta needs to reduce the $13.8-billion on its balance sheet and the risk that brings to the company, Mr. Bastian told a Deutsche Bank AG transportation conference in New York on Tuesday.

The plan, he said, is to maintain annual capital expenditures in the $1.2-billion to $1.4-billion range to 2014. Delta’s capital expenditure hit $2.2-billion in 2008, but fell to $1.3-billion in 2009 and is expected to be $1.2-billion this year.

In addition to delaying airplane purchases, Delta will trim fourth-quarter flights by between 4 and 5 per cent, Mr. Bastian said, and by 2 to 3 per cent next year.

The number of transatlantic flights will be cut by at least 10 per cent in the fourth quarter, he noted.

Dallas-based American Airlines, a unit of AMR Corp., said it will cut capacity in the fourth quarter while United Continental Holdings Inc. said it will hold its 2012 flight levels steady at 2011 levels.

The first flight of Bombardier’s C Series is scheduled next year and the first planes are scheduled to be delivered to customers in 2013.

The biggest single order is from Republic Airways Holdings Inc., which operates Frontier Airlines and other regional U.S. carriers. Republic has 40 of the planes on order and options for another 40, but also said during the Paris Air Show that it will order A319 planes from Airbus.

The A319 with more fuel-efficient engines competes directly with the C Series.


Or maybe Delta wants to bring the debt down to $10 billion by 2013, and then save $500 million per year in interest? Ordering more planes right now would add more capital expenditures, and maybe management is focusing on gaining that $500 million in savings first? Sounds smart, and then maybe certain employees can gain some extra cash too, knowing that extra savings will be there at that time?


Godspeed!


OYS
 
geez those two putzs crack me up, replying to each other now and right after the other


I am so happy Freeturd is flying on the other side of the plant, in between Hanoi and Ho Chi Min City. He probably tried to get on with a big airline in the States, and they rejected him. Now he goes to Vietnam and still can't fly for the largest airline there, instead following RJs to SE Asia. Sad tale, but at least he found his long lost love there, a young, skinny man named Thran.


Godspeed to Freeturd and Thran!


OYS
 
Or maybe Delta wants to bring the debt down to $10 billion by 2013, and then save $500 million per year in interest? Ordering more planes right now would add more capital expenditures, and maybe management is focusing on gaining that $500 million in savings first? Sounds smart, and then maybe certain employees can gain some extra cash too, knowing that extra savings will be there at that time?

Paying down high interest debt in the current economic environment is the smartest thing to do, whether you're talking individual, corporate, or government balance sheets.
 
Age 65 should be able to take care of some furlough concerns. Problem is, most senior Delta pilots bailed prior to bankruptcy so most of the retirements they'll see are from the Northwest side. I think that's a bit less than 200 per year. Comparatively, American and Continental/United should be around 500 per year.

These numbers aren't accurate and Deltas retirement numbers are on par if not higher than most other carriers going forward. Fwiw
 
These numbers aren't accurate and Deltas retirement numbers are on par if not higher than most other carriers going forward. Fwiw

I'm sure you're correct. Do you have a link to reliable numbers? I confess that I was going off of my fading memory.
While Delta may be on par to most other carriers, I suspect that they're a lower percentage of the seniority list.

Here are older UAL retirement numbers based on age 60. Add 5 years to the retirement year:
2008 234
2009 231
2010 201
2011 167
2012 228
2013 245
2014 237
2015 270
2016 331
2017 307
2018 381
2019 355
2020 463
2021 506
2022 506
2023 575
2024 574
2025 538
2026 560
2027 408
2028 300
2029 226
2030 153
Old CAL numbers:
2008: 246
2009: 218
2010: 210
2011: 220
2012: 217
2013: 194
2014: 201
2015: 167

Adding UAL and CAL comes to ~500/yr starting in 2013. OK, a bit less than 500. Call it 400-500/yr.

Edit: I found these numbers on APC:
Pilot retirements
Year AA UAL DAL CAL
2007 281 263 30 322
2008 402 234 60 246
2009 405 231 70 218
2010 363 201 91 210
2011 318 167 132 220
2012 312 228 159 217
2013 388 245 220 194
2014 478 237 268 210
2015 571 270 335 167
2016 628 331 475 190
2017 683 307 558 178
4829 2714 2398 2372

Year USAIR FedEx UPS SWA NWA
2007 271 126 89 129 200
2008 223 151 61 120 239
2009 279 131 60 95 166
2010 246 162 45 122 188
2011 290 153 52 128 187
2012 332 189 62 102 207
2013 334 185 65 X 207
2014 366 156 79 X 230
2015 358 183 98 X 278
2016 360 211 96 X 260
2017 321 213 97 X 295
3380 1860 804 2457

Post #84: http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/34536-2012-boom-hiring-9.html#post645259

I don't know if AA's numbers include TWA; they're probably included, making my guess too high on their retirements. DAL/NWA looks like 250-300/yr so I was off by quite a bit there.
 
Last edited:
WSJ- Weds. Sept.14,2011

"Ed Bastian, the president of Delta, the second-largest airline by traffic, said the airline will extend it's planned 4% to 5% fourth quarter cut in capacity into the first quarter of 2012. The airline plans to CUT capacity by 2% to 3% for ALL of 2012, compared with 2011.
 
I believe the emphasis of the head honchos is that DL is re-sizing the airline by reducing headcount and fleet. Memphis will have 25% less departures, and overall 140 aircraft are in the process of being retired.

Trying to cut non-fuel costs never works out good for pilots, nor does an overall 2-3% capacity cut. The devil is in the details.... guess we will find out at the end of October.
 
All you Delta guys who think you are flowing to Mesaba.....according to our union-when all but 108 of us were lied to-stabbed in the back and were not allowed to keep our promised flow like Compass was given-I say do F#$% yourself by thinking you can flow back to Mesaba screwing us even more after again being screwed by the union seniority list integration.

Yes I am pissed-not only did I lose a flow slot, but my good company was sold to a crappy one who is mismanaged with a bitter pilot group who now blames MEsaba for this......oh and then ALPA has such bad policies concerning merging seniority lists that it in essence gave one pilot group great gains in contract and seniority (colgan)-gave gains to the ultra senior mesaba pilots in seniority-while screwing the rest, and essentially is preventing may pinnacle FO's from upgrading for 5 years. AND NOW YOU WANT TO FLOW DOWN when there is threat of furloughs? Selfish busters you are- cancel my flow when you have the world at your feet and now this sort of talk-your moms must be proud
 
All you Delta guys who think you are flowing to Mesaba.....according to our union-when all but 108 of us were lied to-stabbed in the back and were not allowed to keep our promised flow like Compass was given-I say do F#$% yourself by thinking you can flow back to Mesaba screwing us even more after again being screwed by the union seniority list integration.

Yes I am pissed-not only did I lose a flow slot, but my good company was sold to a crappy one who is mismanaged with a bitter pilot group who now blames MEsaba for this......oh and then ALPA has such bad policies concerning merging seniority lists that it in essence gave one pilot group great gains in contract and seniority (colgan)-gave gains to the ultra senior mesaba pilots in seniority-while screwing the rest, and essentially is preventing may pinnacle FO's from upgrading for 5 years. AND NOW YOU WANT TO FLOW DOWN when there is threat of furloughs? Selfish busters you are- cancel my flow when you have the world at your feet and now this sort of talk-your moms must be proud


You will like OYS when she flows down. (read furloughed) she just wants what is fair. You can complain all you want, but she has the right to your seat in her fantasy world....

GODSPEED!!!
 

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