ohplease! said:
well, my little company will furlough until most of us until the next big thing steps into ATL and fills the void left by Delta. Then my little company will call back the furloughees and fly feed for the next big thing in ATL. If I get furloughed, I will make due until I am recalled or I will find something else to do and move on. Either way, your smug ass will be out of your dream job. I, by the way, have never dreamt of flying for Delta.
The 'next big thing'? Who's that going to be? If DL dies, this is what will happen:
1. Every major carrier that currently serves ATL to their hubs are going to add flights to their hubs and increase guage to capture some of the traffic. No ASA feed needed. Maybe add some point to point RJ flying with Eagle or Expressjet or another inhouse small jet provider to cities in which they have a significant presence. AA to LGA for example. Or US to BOS.
2. Airtran will pull down service from other markets and probably add about 10-20 aircraft worth of flying back into ATL in their existing markets. Perhaps add on around 5 or so new markets in the short term. Order more new B737s longer term. Little or no ASA feed needed for that. Maybe they'll take some 70 seat flying from ASA if you're lucky and you can outbid Mesa, Chatauqua & Comair who are also suddenly quite desparate to place their aircraft.
3. Southwest and Jetblue likely enter the ATL market. WN enters a market as they typically do with 20 or 30 departures. JB adds 10-20 departures spread over JFK, LGB, FLL, MCO, TPA. Takes about 6 months to establish a new base. No ASA feed needed here.
4. Startup carrier announces they plan to begin operations in ATL. Takes maybe a year or so minimum to get the funding in place, get an operating certificate, maintenance program, proving runs, hire & train employees and get started flying. And that's if they pick up used DL aircraft to start operations after the inevitable DL garage sale is complete. Much longer if they get in line to order some nice new A320's or B737s. No ASA feed needed for at least a year there. And then again only if you can outbid the other former DL partner carriers for the flying.
ASA can try to keep going by flying high frequency from ATL to major US cities on the East coast and compete directly with the mainline jets flown by the existing competitors. You can forget about the small perimeter markets ASA serves today without the benefit of DL's ATL hub feed. For more info on the 'go it alone' strategy read up on Independance Air.
Wonder how long Skywest/ASA can bleed cash and could afford to make the payments on a couple hundred CRJs, ground equipment, plus a bunch of empty facilities and all the other personnel and overhead involved in running an airline with
NO CASH coming through the door? Wonder how quickly they can get a couple thousand furloughed pilots back through recurrency training when the next 'big thing' comes around?
So if I were an ASA pilot I'd hope pretty strongly that DL & it's pilots get their sh*t together pretty darn quickly.